An interesting article in today's Wall Street Journal talks about the costs of possible countrywide health coverage without focusing on what Americans really want and need.
United Healthcare offers our family low co-pays for doctor's visits, even of specialists, hospital coverage and drugs, and covers catastrophic health insurance, without coverage for teeth or eye-care or cosmetic surgeries. Usually, it's fine.
But what if we do someday have huge expenses? We would want to have them covered.
How efficient can a country be where a third of the population cannot afford basic coverage? By now, it should be clear that there are huge personal and business tragedies that should have been prevented. Costly emergency visits, mortgage defaults and personal bankruptcy and business failures are often caused by out-of-control health care expenses in America. This reduces the attractiveness of the country inside and outside.
Preventive health care is a good idea with incentives for keeping in shape still to be dreamed up. If physician business tax costs are lowered and insurance agent costs are close to eliminated, health care should return to doctors with simplification and computerization of medical care where possible to cut costs.
We would all like to be able to choose doctors according to our own preferences (usually determined by their competence, personality, availability when needed and location). But who wants medical insurance agents meddling inside of that relationship?
At the present time some doctors over-prescribe expensive procedures that could have been prevented by having advice from a better doctor. Patients are better off being protected from those procedures, and health care costs could be reduced as well.
Efficiencies in the health care field could be internationalized by constantly checking the experiences of other countries that have been successful in satisfying their populations while lowering rates of sickness, long hospital stays and death.
Making appropriate health care readily available, and protecting the sickest and their families makes good political sense, and should help the bottom line of American businesses, governments, schools and non-profits.
Incentivized peer accountability for the most expensive procedures (prior to taking money from patients) and inexpensive coverage would go far to alleviate patient stress. Health care efficiency should eventually translate to monetary cost advantages for all Americans.
The article above accentuates the negatives without emphasizing the obvious, that all Americans deserve good health care. How much longer can America ignore it?
Monday, December 29, 2008
Parent conference overhaul: New York Times article review
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/12/28/education/28conferences.html
As the article cited above points out, there are parent-teacher conferences conducted nowadays that run contrary to American society, and perhaps adds to the unpopularity of schooling in general.
Can you remember....?
the tradition of parents perched in pint-size chairs, listening intently as a teacher delivers a 15-minute soliloquy on their child’s academic progress, or lack thereof
Yes, most American parents have endured the indignity of perching on baby-sized chairs while enduring demeaning lectures by teachers. I know I endured many and my daughter eventually got into an Ivy League University. She can't have been as bad as they made her out to be, year after year after year. I was horrified at what felt like verbal abuse to me, and what was expected of me to accept, that my mother had not ever had to accept in Canada (the litany of horrors my child had done were listed by this panel of teachers). It just stunned and ultimately disgusted me, that teachers could get away with this verbal abuse to parents. We were talking about a good child here, weren't we? If teachers were perfect, I could understand.
Their criticisms turn teachers into very unattractive, unkind, arrogant individuals. They get very practiced at making parents feel inadequate and ineffective. I always try to turn the criticisms to discussions with more general themes. I was sorry my daughter had to be taught by some of them. And this at a private school we were paying a lot of money for my daughter to attend!
American school systems are obviously foreign to all foreign-born parents, not just immigrants (as many foreigners come here legally and educated, and not poor). What is expected of parents is obviously going to be different than what they experienced growing up in a different country at a different era, and at private vs. public schools.
There is a lot of American education that should be corrected. If Americans could only be humble enough to look at other countries and see what successes they have had with their elementary educational systems, they might learn what could work better here to improve their own teaching practices. Not happening any time soon though. As I said, these teachers are too arrogant.
To teachers and the administrators who organize parent conferences, my question is: how can parents be expected to warmly embrace an educational system that does not concentrate on improving teacher education, and that does not even keep up with successful international educational practices?
And now children are going to have to endure this tirade of personal abuse with parents as well? Sounds even worse to me. How is this an improvement that the concurrent babysitting of children and weekend and evening appointments at parent conferences, personal kindness and less invective on the part of teachers along with suggested plans of action, and translation services when necessary would not provide? Also, adult-sized chairs and less offense would be welcome.
As the article cited above points out, there are parent-teacher conferences conducted nowadays that run contrary to American society, and perhaps adds to the unpopularity of schooling in general.
Can you remember....?
the tradition of parents perched in pint-size chairs, listening intently as a teacher delivers a 15-minute soliloquy on their child’s academic progress, or lack thereof
Yes, most American parents have endured the indignity of perching on baby-sized chairs while enduring demeaning lectures by teachers. I know I endured many and my daughter eventually got into an Ivy League University. She can't have been as bad as they made her out to be, year after year after year. I was horrified at what felt like verbal abuse to me, and what was expected of me to accept, that my mother had not ever had to accept in Canada (the litany of horrors my child had done were listed by this panel of teachers). It just stunned and ultimately disgusted me, that teachers could get away with this verbal abuse to parents. We were talking about a good child here, weren't we? If teachers were perfect, I could understand.
Their criticisms turn teachers into very unattractive, unkind, arrogant individuals. They get very practiced at making parents feel inadequate and ineffective. I always try to turn the criticisms to discussions with more general themes. I was sorry my daughter had to be taught by some of them. And this at a private school we were paying a lot of money for my daughter to attend!
American school systems are obviously foreign to all foreign-born parents, not just immigrants (as many foreigners come here legally and educated, and not poor). What is expected of parents is obviously going to be different than what they experienced growing up in a different country at a different era, and at private vs. public schools.
There is a lot of American education that should be corrected. If Americans could only be humble enough to look at other countries and see what successes they have had with their elementary educational systems, they might learn what could work better here to improve their own teaching practices. Not happening any time soon though. As I said, these teachers are too arrogant.
To teachers and the administrators who organize parent conferences, my question is: how can parents be expected to warmly embrace an educational system that does not concentrate on improving teacher education, and that does not even keep up with successful international educational practices?
And now children are going to have to endure this tirade of personal abuse with parents as well? Sounds even worse to me. How is this an improvement that the concurrent babysitting of children and weekend and evening appointments at parent conferences, personal kindness and less invective on the part of teachers along with suggested plans of action, and translation services when necessary would not provide? Also, adult-sized chairs and less offense would be welcome.
Saturday, December 27, 2008
"Slumdog Millionaire" movie review
This is a very original movie. Americans aren't normally shown this quality of a movie set in India, and it is exceptionally well-done. I think Indians should be proud of this movie and the way it portrays the country and shows its scenery and slices of socioeconomic strata.
It takes awhile for the Slumdog story to get into its stride, and some scenes are off-putting. There are many very imaginative scenes; orphans and orphanages in modern India (makes me wonder if there are any like this now), Muslims on a rampage setting fires, and little boys standing atop moving trains and even hanging on the side and jumping on and off them. There are scenes of beggar children and main actor Dev Patel's interrogation really go far beyond what audiences here usually see. The child actors appear to be expected to do far more than American movies usually show children doing.
There are very many changes of scenery over many years. The changing face of the city, presumably of Mumbai, the filthiness of slums, the masses of passengers at trains stations are brought up close, raw and believable, but at the same time not overdone. It's well worth watching through to the end, and even through the credits. The music and settings are very strong features. The story ends happily for the main character and it leaves you satisfied that goodness is rewarded, even if some of the bad guys appear to go unpunished.
I am surprised at how riveting and strong the entire movie is. The entire packed audience sat still and spellbound throughout, mesmerized by the glowing and effective performances and skilful editing and direction. I felt a range of emotions, happy, sad, angry at injustices, sympathetic to the poor, and it made me laugh as well. There is also an unexpected blend of romance and action, considering that the movie features a popular television show, the corrupt Indian version of "Who Wants to Be a Millionaire".
Okay, this may sound naive, but why aren't human rights groups and lawyers busier in India? If this movie is any indication, they have a lot of work to do.
I think if any movie this year is going to get awards for originality and photography, Slumdog Millionaire would be a good pick.
It takes awhile for the Slumdog story to get into its stride, and some scenes are off-putting. There are many very imaginative scenes; orphans and orphanages in modern India (makes me wonder if there are any like this now), Muslims on a rampage setting fires, and little boys standing atop moving trains and even hanging on the side and jumping on and off them. There are scenes of beggar children and main actor Dev Patel's interrogation really go far beyond what audiences here usually see. The child actors appear to be expected to do far more than American movies usually show children doing.
There are very many changes of scenery over many years. The changing face of the city, presumably of Mumbai, the filthiness of slums, the masses of passengers at trains stations are brought up close, raw and believable, but at the same time not overdone. It's well worth watching through to the end, and even through the credits. The music and settings are very strong features. The story ends happily for the main character and it leaves you satisfied that goodness is rewarded, even if some of the bad guys appear to go unpunished.
I am surprised at how riveting and strong the entire movie is. The entire packed audience sat still and spellbound throughout, mesmerized by the glowing and effective performances and skilful editing and direction. I felt a range of emotions, happy, sad, angry at injustices, sympathetic to the poor, and it made me laugh as well. There is also an unexpected blend of romance and action, considering that the movie features a popular television show, the corrupt Indian version of "Who Wants to Be a Millionaire".
Okay, this may sound naive, but why aren't human rights groups and lawyers busier in India? If this movie is any indication, they have a lot of work to do.
I think if any movie this year is going to get awards for originality and photography, Slumdog Millionaire would be a good pick.
Sudoku: accuracy, accuracy, accuracy
Sudoku is a game to help fight flawed thinking.
A while ago I tried Sudoku and started at the hard puzzles but gave it up, having passed it off as a child's game. Mistake! How to play Sudoku? If you start at the easy puzzles and learn the skills first, the reward is that it's fun! It is important and useful to exercise your mind and make it more flexible. This is a game where you are rewarded for correcting your thinking and for being right!
Accuracy is most important in Sudoku, or else you must backtrack, erase and start again. (How would I know?)
To find a Sudoku game, try googling. Search for "easy sudoku" at Google Images to print out free puzzles. There are lots of inexpensive Sudoku books to buy at bookstores and grocery checkouts with graduated puzzles.
Here are some secret steps to successful Sudoku, the R(epeats)-L(ine)-B(ox) system (it's all a blur). These steps are interchangeable. It's easiest to start with the first, then the second and third, constantly going back and doing more of step one.
1. Repeats. With pencil, eraser and puzzle in hand, first check lines in the big box for repeated numbers and fill in the third line. If there is, say, a "seven" on the first and third line, and only one spot to fill in the middle box, then it's a "seven". You need to go around and check every line, left to right (or right to left), and top to bottom (or bottom to top).
2. Line. After you have finished filling in these numbers, see if you can finish an entire line since you might have only about 2-4 boxes to fill in, and a number cannot repeat. Again, you need to check every direction.
3. Box. You can finish any one of the nine boxes within the big box when you have just a few spots left blank, as each box cannot repeat a number inside of it.
Just keep going very carefully. To win, each move must be a defendable mathematical certainty. You should be able to finish it without needing to check the answer. If you're stuck, get an easier, winnable puzzle, one you can finish. Finally, you will have successfully finished a complete Sudoku puzzle. It's guaranteed to give you a feeling of accomplishment and achievement and it's fun! Finishing a puzzle perfectly is the goal. Increasing speed is even better.
Congratulations!
Hope you have fun playing. Happy Sudoku!
Special thanks to Amy Seymour.
A while ago I tried Sudoku and started at the hard puzzles but gave it up, having passed it off as a child's game. Mistake! How to play Sudoku? If you start at the easy puzzles and learn the skills first, the reward is that it's fun! It is important and useful to exercise your mind and make it more flexible. This is a game where you are rewarded for correcting your thinking and for being right!
Accuracy is most important in Sudoku, or else you must backtrack, erase and start again. (How would I know?)
To find a Sudoku game, try googling. Search for "easy sudoku" at Google Images to print out free puzzles. There are lots of inexpensive Sudoku books to buy at bookstores and grocery checkouts with graduated puzzles.
Here are some secret steps to successful Sudoku, the R(epeats)-L(ine)-B(ox) system (it's all a blur). These steps are interchangeable. It's easiest to start with the first, then the second and third, constantly going back and doing more of step one.
1. Repeats. With pencil, eraser and puzzle in hand, first check lines in the big box for repeated numbers and fill in the third line. If there is, say, a "seven" on the first and third line, and only one spot to fill in the middle box, then it's a "seven". You need to go around and check every line, left to right (or right to left), and top to bottom (or bottom to top).
2. Line. After you have finished filling in these numbers, see if you can finish an entire line since you might have only about 2-4 boxes to fill in, and a number cannot repeat. Again, you need to check every direction.
3. Box. You can finish any one of the nine boxes within the big box when you have just a few spots left blank, as each box cannot repeat a number inside of it.
Just keep going very carefully. To win, each move must be a defendable mathematical certainty. You should be able to finish it without needing to check the answer. If you're stuck, get an easier, winnable puzzle, one you can finish. Finally, you will have successfully finished a complete Sudoku puzzle. It's guaranteed to give you a feeling of accomplishment and achievement and it's fun! Finishing a puzzle perfectly is the goal. Increasing speed is even better.
Congratulations!
Hope you have fun playing. Happy Sudoku!
Special thanks to Amy Seymour.
Wednesday, December 24, 2008
Merry Christmas and Happy New Year
MERRY CHRISTMAS and A HAPPY NEW YEAR
Best Wishes for a Prosperous 2009
Here's a photo of three of us in front of the Sea Diamond, in Athens, Greece (a week later she sank).
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sea_Diamond
Best Wishes for a Prosperous 2009
Here's a photo of three of us in front of the Sea Diamond, in Athens, Greece (a week later she sank).
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sea_Diamond
 |
| From Drop Box |
Sunday, December 21, 2008
A winning week for mutual funds - Dec 21, 2008
The last week for mutual funds has been better than we have had for awhile here in the U.S. The last few months have been dreadful, in a huge, historically significant way.
Here are some up funds for the week. Who would have thought that results would fall so far, so fast?
Maybe gold is regaining some lustre. Gold funds had a great week, FSAGX (Fidelity Select Gold) +6.7% (1 wk) -27.3% (YTD) +19.7 (3yr total)) but YTD is not good, and VGPMX (Vanguard Precious Metals) 5.5% for a week is good, but YTD (-58.6) and 3 yr (-22.7) are poor. Longer term, this fund has made money for many.
Vanguard's REIT Admiral Fund VGSLX is up 8.2% for the week although it is down -38.2% YTD and -30.1% the last three years.
The other funds up over three years I found in Barron's are Treasury funds, stable but boring. They would cause me to search for a higher return in a rising market. Now they look like steady growers.
From Fidelity (in %):
FGMNX:GNMA////////// 0.5 (1 wk)///6.9 (YTD)///19.3 (3yr)
FGOVX:GovtInc/////// 1.7 (1 wk)///11.3 (YTD)///24.7 (3 yr)
FSTGX:Int Gov/////// 1.1 (1 wk)///10.2 (YTD)///23.4 (3 yr)
From Vanguard:
VFIIX:GNMAAdml////// 0.6 (1 wk)///7.2 (YTD)///20.4 (3 yr)
VFITX:ITTsry//////// 2.3 (1 wk)///14.0(YTD)///29.9 (3 yr)
VUSTX:LTTsry//////// 5.8 (1 wk)///24.5(YTD)///40.1 (3 yr)
VFISX:STFed Adml//// 0.5 (1 wk)///6.8 (YTD)///20.1 (3 yr)
This year has been especially harsh on everything from real estate to stocks and commodities. No news there, but the ideal money management stance is still somewhere between day trading and storing the money. The money has to have time and a place to grow. It takes money to make money. Returns may vary but there is always somewhere to make money. It is important to note that stock funds have had higher returns overall for the last 100+ years, especially if bought low and sold high.
Here are some up funds for the week. Who would have thought that results would fall so far, so fast?
Maybe gold is regaining some lustre. Gold funds had a great week, FSAGX (Fidelity Select Gold) +6.7% (1 wk) -27.3% (YTD) +19.7 (3yr total)) but YTD is not good, and VGPMX (Vanguard Precious Metals) 5.5% for a week is good, but YTD (-58.6) and 3 yr (-22.7) are poor. Longer term, this fund has made money for many.
Vanguard's REIT Admiral Fund VGSLX is up 8.2% for the week although it is down -38.2% YTD and -30.1% the last three years.
The other funds up over three years I found in Barron's are Treasury funds, stable but boring. They would cause me to search for a higher return in a rising market. Now they look like steady growers.
From Fidelity (in %):
FGMNX:GNMA////////// 0.5 (1 wk)///6.9 (YTD)///19.3 (3yr)
FGOVX:GovtInc/////// 1.7 (1 wk)///11.3 (YTD)///24.7 (3 yr)
FSTGX:Int Gov/////// 1.1 (1 wk)///10.2 (YTD)///23.4 (3 yr)
From Vanguard:
VFIIX:GNMAAdml////// 0.6 (1 wk)///7.2 (YTD)///20.4 (3 yr)
VFITX:ITTsry//////// 2.3 (1 wk)///14.0(YTD)///29.9 (3 yr)
VUSTX:LTTsry//////// 5.8 (1 wk)///24.5(YTD)///40.1 (3 yr)
VFISX:STFed Adml//// 0.5 (1 wk)///6.8 (YTD)///20.1 (3 yr)
This year has been especially harsh on everything from real estate to stocks and commodities. No news there, but the ideal money management stance is still somewhere between day trading and storing the money. The money has to have time and a place to grow. It takes money to make money. Returns may vary but there is always somewhere to make money. It is important to note that stock funds have had higher returns overall for the last 100+ years, especially if bought low and sold high.
Current winning stocks
Looking at free stock screeners today, they give different year-to-date and one-year charts, almost the same span of time now. I usually look at several, and today the MSN list has more of the winning stocks, but I can only really decide that I like the look of the charts for:
EBS, Emergent BioSolutions, the vaccine maker, and
AIPC, the American Italian Pasta Company.
Of course, there are many more companies farther down the list that have charts not included here quickly heading up, and some at the top of the MSN list that peaked earlier in the year and are down significantly from previous highs that I cannot recommend. I may list them at another time. Again, buyer beware. There are many components in a buy decision, but for me the chart tends to be the final deciding factor. I just can't buy anything based on good fundamentals, hoping the price will go up, if the stock price isn't going up. There could be too many things I don't know that will soon be reflected in a stock price that is heading down.
EBS, Emergent BioSolutions, the vaccine maker, and
AIPC, the American Italian Pasta Company.
Of course, there are many more companies farther down the list that have charts not included here quickly heading up, and some at the top of the MSN list that peaked earlier in the year and are down significantly from previous highs that I cannot recommend. I may list them at another time. Again, buyer beware. There are many components in a buy decision, but for me the chart tends to be the final deciding factor. I just can't buy anything based on good fundamentals, hoping the price will go up, if the stock price isn't going up. There could be too many things I don't know that will soon be reflected in a stock price that is heading down.
Thursday, December 18, 2008
My philosophy of the American school admissions process
Let's turn to university and school admissions, as there is an interesting article on current admission philosophies in today's New York Times:
http://questions.blogs.nytimes.com/2008/12/17/qa-college-admissions/?hp
Many years ago, I worked in admission offices at two universities and learned completely different practices at both, at the University of Oxford (for graduate students) and at The Ohio State University (both grads and undergrads), I can say with some authority that the students with the best marks in the hardest courses have an advantage, regardless of where they went to school. It's safe to say, but true.
My daughter was featured in an article in a competing national newspaper a few years ago about getting into university. Parents tend to be very hungry for current admission updates. There is a never-ending stream of mystery surrounding the process and most parents have valid questions about admission into the most selective universities in the United States.
With all the money involved, it's little wonder parents usually get involved to the point of obsession in America. They want to know how much it's all going to cost, how long it will take and where their children will be accepted, and they want to know now. But the system is so complex, and there are so many choices, that the application process and subsequent wait can be extremely stressful for students as well as parents. The process leads to a senior year of high school usually fraught with tension within families, as parents sometimes constantly question students for news. Students can keep parents aware so that they can be helpful, and not meddlesome or nosy, and clear the air in between application deadlines.
There is this sense that school admission is a judgment of parenting effectiveness and the way it reflects on parents and will reflect on them where the children attend school and university. In my view, where the student can get into at the secondary level does not show their ability as much as it is a practical decision made by the school for reasons only they know. Student admission decision-making is a private process and my understanding is universities cannot be legally faulted if they don't accept a student.
Some of the time where someone goes to school is a reflection of the money that parents can free up for education. In some families, there is a philosophy that no amount is too much to pay for education while in others no more than absolutely necessary should be spent on education and that education is not the best investment of their finances. For the latter students, financial aid is of paramount importance if private and continuing education is desired.
There was an interesting special show on CNBC television yesterday evening about the Harvard Business School, exploring the admission process for an M.B.A degree, the education students receive and whether the education is important today. I thought it was an excellent try and exceptionally well researched with many interviews of alumni, students and faculty about this secretive process.
I can just say from experience that while reading applications can be quite interesting, the repetitiveness of applications can be rather monotonous. It is definitely stressful keeping all those students applications together and remembering them, and then making correct decisions.
http://questions.blogs.nytimes.com/2008/12/17/qa-college-admissions/?hp
Many years ago, I worked in admission offices at two universities and learned completely different practices at both, at the University of Oxford (for graduate students) and at The Ohio State University (both grads and undergrads), I can say with some authority that the students with the best marks in the hardest courses have an advantage, regardless of where they went to school. It's safe to say, but true.
My daughter was featured in an article in a competing national newspaper a few years ago about getting into university. Parents tend to be very hungry for current admission updates. There is a never-ending stream of mystery surrounding the process and most parents have valid questions about admission into the most selective universities in the United States.
With all the money involved, it's little wonder parents usually get involved to the point of obsession in America. They want to know how much it's all going to cost, how long it will take and where their children will be accepted, and they want to know now. But the system is so complex, and there are so many choices, that the application process and subsequent wait can be extremely stressful for students as well as parents. The process leads to a senior year of high school usually fraught with tension within families, as parents sometimes constantly question students for news. Students can keep parents aware so that they can be helpful, and not meddlesome or nosy, and clear the air in between application deadlines.
There is this sense that school admission is a judgment of parenting effectiveness and the way it reflects on parents and will reflect on them where the children attend school and university. In my view, where the student can get into at the secondary level does not show their ability as much as it is a practical decision made by the school for reasons only they know. Student admission decision-making is a private process and my understanding is universities cannot be legally faulted if they don't accept a student.
Some of the time where someone goes to school is a reflection of the money that parents can free up for education. In some families, there is a philosophy that no amount is too much to pay for education while in others no more than absolutely necessary should be spent on education and that education is not the best investment of their finances. For the latter students, financial aid is of paramount importance if private and continuing education is desired.
There was an interesting special show on CNBC television yesterday evening about the Harvard Business School, exploring the admission process for an M.B.A degree, the education students receive and whether the education is important today. I thought it was an excellent try and exceptionally well researched with many interviews of alumni, students and faculty about this secretive process.
I can just say from experience that while reading applications can be quite interesting, the repetitiveness of applications can be rather monotonous. It is definitely stressful keeping all those students applications together and remembering them, and then making correct decisions.
Tuesday, December 16, 2008
Could this be it for interest rates for a long time?
An exciting session ended on the upside today in the American stock markets after the Federal Reserve announced that it is lowering interest rates to the range of 0% to 0.25%. What's next, negative interest rates?
Dow -------- 8,924.14-----+359.61 ----- 4.20%
S&P 500 ------ 913.18 ------ +44.61 ---- 5.14%
Nasdaq -----1,589.89 ----- +81.55----- 5.41%
All of these real estate ETFs rose impressively today:
RWR +13.34% DJ Wilshire REIT ETF. RWR (NYSE ARCA) $40.19 Change:+4.73
ICF +10.66% iShares Cohen & Steers Realty Maj. (ETF) (NYSE) 43.92 +4.23
VNQ +10.21% Vanguard REIT ETF (NYSE) 36.28 +3.36
IYR +12.18% iShares Dow Jones US Real Estate (ETF) (NYSE) 37.58 +4.08
Some Direxion funds are up incredibly since Dec 12, 2008:
1. DXHLX +1600%
2. DXQLX +700%
3. DXDLX +500%
4. DXZLX +500%
5. DXSLX +450%
The first, at least, is rumored to be a "reverse split". These Direxion funds aren't "buy and hold" funds. There is a "buyer beware" article from Morningstar warning against these funds here:
http://news.morningstar.com/articlenet/article.aspx?id=264847
But with all these spectacular gains today, investors begin to make up for previous cliff-drops.
In a comment dated Thursday, December 25, 2008 1:53:00 PM EST, here is what a commenter adds about Direxion Funds, with my gratitude:
Anonymous said...
Please be aware that eight (8) Direxion Funds will be undergoing a reverse split the weekend of December 12, 2008. The ratios are shown below.
December 12, 2008, will be the last date of the pre-“reverse split” price and December 15, 2008, will be the first day reporting the post-“reverse split” price. Share balances will be adjusted downward at the same ratio the NAV
is increased.
Here is the table of ratios:
FUND TICKER CUSIP SHARE RATIO*
Small Cap Bull 2.5x Fund DXRLX 254939838 1:2
Developed Markets Bull 2x Fund DXDLX 254939614 1:5
Emerging Markets Bull 2x Fund DXELX 254939630 1:5
S&P 500 Bull 2.5x Fund DXSLX 254939705 1:5
NASDAQ-100 Bull 2.5x Fund DXQLX 254939200 1:7
Latin America Bull 2x Fund DXZLX 254939507 1:5
China Bull 2x Fund DXHLX 254939515 1:12
Commodity Bull 2x Fund DXCLX 254939655 1:3
*The ratio of 1:x means that you will get 1 (one) post-“reverse split” share for x pre-“reverse split” shares. The NAV will go up by the same ratio.
EXAMPLE:
At the close of business on December 12, 2008, you own 15,000.000 shares of the Direxion Latin America Bull 2x Fund at an NAV of $4.30 per share. Your
account’s total Net Asset Value is $64,500.00.
At the open of business on December 15, 2008, you will own 3,000.000
shares of the same fund at an NAV of $21.50 per share. Your account’s total Net Asset Value will be $64,500.00.
If you have any questions, please contact us at 800-851-0511 between the hours of 9 AM and 6 PM Eastern Time, Monday through Friday.
Dow -------- 8,924.14-----+359.61 ----- 4.20%
S&P 500 ------ 913.18 ------ +44.61 ---- 5.14%
Nasdaq -----1,589.89 ----- +81.55----- 5.41%
All of these real estate ETFs rose impressively today:
RWR +13.34% DJ Wilshire REIT ETF. RWR (NYSE ARCA) $40.19 Change:+4.73
ICF +10.66% iShares Cohen & Steers Realty Maj. (ETF) (NYSE) 43.92 +4.23
VNQ +10.21% Vanguard REIT ETF (NYSE) 36.28 +3.36
IYR +12.18% iShares Dow Jones US Real Estate (ETF) (NYSE) 37.58 +4.08
Some Direxion funds are up incredibly since Dec 12, 2008:
1. DXHLX +1600%
2. DXQLX +700%
3. DXDLX +500%
4. DXZLX +500%
5. DXSLX +450%
The first, at least, is rumored to be a "reverse split". These Direxion funds aren't "buy and hold" funds. There is a "buyer beware" article from Morningstar warning against these funds here:
http://news.morningstar.com/articlenet/article.aspx?id=264847
But with all these spectacular gains today, investors begin to make up for previous cliff-drops.
In a comment dated Thursday, December 25, 2008 1:53:00 PM EST, here is what a commenter adds about Direxion Funds, with my gratitude:
Anonymous said...
Please be aware that eight (8) Direxion Funds will be undergoing a reverse split the weekend of December 12, 2008. The ratios are shown below.
December 12, 2008, will be the last date of the pre-“reverse split” price and December 15, 2008, will be the first day reporting the post-“reverse split” price. Share balances will be adjusted downward at the same ratio the NAV
is increased.
Here is the table of ratios:
FUND TICKER CUSIP SHARE RATIO*
Small Cap Bull 2.5x Fund DXRLX 254939838 1:2
Developed Markets Bull 2x Fund DXDLX 254939614 1:5
Emerging Markets Bull 2x Fund DXELX 254939630 1:5
S&P 500 Bull 2.5x Fund DXSLX 254939705 1:5
NASDAQ-100 Bull 2.5x Fund DXQLX 254939200 1:7
Latin America Bull 2x Fund DXZLX 254939507 1:5
China Bull 2x Fund DXHLX 254939515 1:12
Commodity Bull 2x Fund DXCLX 254939655 1:3
*The ratio of 1:x means that you will get 1 (one) post-“reverse split” share for x pre-“reverse split” shares. The NAV will go up by the same ratio.
EXAMPLE:
At the close of business on December 12, 2008, you own 15,000.000 shares of the Direxion Latin America Bull 2x Fund at an NAV of $4.30 per share. Your
account’s total Net Asset Value is $64,500.00.
At the open of business on December 15, 2008, you will own 3,000.000
shares of the same fund at an NAV of $21.50 per share. Your account’s total Net Asset Value will be $64,500.00.
If you have any questions, please contact us at 800-851-0511 between the hours of 9 AM and 6 PM Eastern Time, Monday through Friday.
Friday, December 12, 2008
Auto Nation anecdote
Sorry, I didn't get an "American" car.
Here is my story of our latest car purchase. Actually, we leased it because lease rates are low and I like to turn them in and not have to resell.
It is not as though we have not ever bought cars. We always used to do so and have bought many, but it seemed to me that after a few misadventures with car ownership, why not just try leasing for a change, as an experiment. We have since happily been doing so for the last 12 years and have had better service and even better cars (that did not come with problems, like broken windows) than when we bought them. Sure, we don't own them, but that is about the only problem we have had with the experience. We just use them and turn them in. We hear it is now very mainstream.
Since my lease finished a year ago, buying my Mercedes ML 350 instead of turning it in was one possibility. Then, I renewed it for a fifth year. Recently, the price to buy it would have been $15,000 and that is about the norm for a five year old Mercedes ML350. It had been new with everything I wanted in it and less than ten miles on the odometer when I got it. I had delayed turning it in with nearly 60,000 miles on it because of not being sure about the future and what I might want, and because Paul had leased an Acura MDX in the meantime, and Amy a Jeep Liberty. None of us drives that much, we fly, and we just want cars that don't give us any trouble.
I test-drove an Acura RDX, because I like Acuras and the dealer and dealership, already having had a Legend, but decided that the suspension was not as strong as I wanted. Noticed paving in streets I hadn't noticed while driving the Mercedes.
I also tried the Lexus 350 as well as the Mercedes ML350, and Jeep Laredo (thinking it would be a cheaper alternative). There was a friendly saleswoman at the Jeep dealership to their credit. The Jeep itself was nice, but it came out costing as much as the Lexus to rent, which was only $40 less per month than the Mercedes, all with the same up front cost of $2500.
Having had Mercedes Benz SUVs for nine years, and really loving them, also liking the dealer and dealership, I was worried about trying something different, maybe straying to something I might not be happy with in the long run. I considered buying it, too, but the cost came out to almost the same amount as leasing over the next 42 months.
Since "life is short" and "variety is the spice of life" I decided to test-drive the Lexus. To my surprise, at the Lexus dealership, there was a female saleswoman when I asked for one. Carol said she had been at Lexus for a year. It made me feel more comfortable taking a test drive with a woman. I relaxed more, and finally chose the Lexus 350.
As the papers were signed, I met many wonderful Lexus employees, including Mike, employed to show new car owners (and leasers) how to use the rather complicated electronics in the car. My Mercedes didn't have a navigation system, automatic trunk-opener, automatic headlights and automatic windshield wipers. My portable TomTom GPS was doing a superlative job helping me navigate the Mercedes, but kept dropping off the windshield.
Now, a few weeks later, I like the Lexus a lot. I especially like the automatic features. Only the trunk-opener and navigation system would have been part of the Mercedes competitor. As for the automatic headlights and windshield wipers that speed up and slow down, I do really like them and wonder if they are the wave of the future, the way automatic transmissions squashed manual transmissions in years past. The special feature called "ECT snow" very effectively clamps the car to the road and feels safe rounding corners in wet conditions. The Lexus 350 is not as heavy an SUV as the Mercedes and a little wider, and I am still wondering how it will work six months or a year down the road.
I did feel mildly disloyal not getting the American car, the Jeep Laredo, not a top-of-the-line Jeep. I cannot sugarcoat it. At least I looked at it. Many American cars are doing huge business abroad.
Acura cars are assembled in Canada, Mercedes are assembled here in America. Car salespersons have told me to consider the country of a car's origin as of paramount importance, specifically if it's the United States, to support our country. In the end it came down to style, price, features and availability. The fact that Lexus came from Japan fully loaded was actually minimally important on my list of priorities.
Not sure where American car manufacturers, parts makers and dealers are going, now that the auto bailout failed last night in Washington, but not many people my age or younger are interested in buying American cars. Buicks, Pontiacs, Cadillacs and so on and so forth need to find more buyers here, and fast, despite falling behind international competitors.
Here is my story of our latest car purchase. Actually, we leased it because lease rates are low and I like to turn them in and not have to resell.
It is not as though we have not ever bought cars. We always used to do so and have bought many, but it seemed to me that after a few misadventures with car ownership, why not just try leasing for a change, as an experiment. We have since happily been doing so for the last 12 years and have had better service and even better cars (that did not come with problems, like broken windows) than when we bought them. Sure, we don't own them, but that is about the only problem we have had with the experience. We just use them and turn them in. We hear it is now very mainstream.
Since my lease finished a year ago, buying my Mercedes ML 350 instead of turning it in was one possibility. Then, I renewed it for a fifth year. Recently, the price to buy it would have been $15,000 and that is about the norm for a five year old Mercedes ML350. It had been new with everything I wanted in it and less than ten miles on the odometer when I got it. I had delayed turning it in with nearly 60,000 miles on it because of not being sure about the future and what I might want, and because Paul had leased an Acura MDX in the meantime, and Amy a Jeep Liberty. None of us drives that much, we fly, and we just want cars that don't give us any trouble.
I test-drove an Acura RDX, because I like Acuras and the dealer and dealership, already having had a Legend, but decided that the suspension was not as strong as I wanted. Noticed paving in streets I hadn't noticed while driving the Mercedes.
I also tried the Lexus 350 as well as the Mercedes ML350, and Jeep Laredo (thinking it would be a cheaper alternative). There was a friendly saleswoman at the Jeep dealership to their credit. The Jeep itself was nice, but it came out costing as much as the Lexus to rent, which was only $40 less per month than the Mercedes, all with the same up front cost of $2500.
Having had Mercedes Benz SUVs for nine years, and really loving them, also liking the dealer and dealership, I was worried about trying something different, maybe straying to something I might not be happy with in the long run. I considered buying it, too, but the cost came out to almost the same amount as leasing over the next 42 months.
Since "life is short" and "variety is the spice of life" I decided to test-drive the Lexus. To my surprise, at the Lexus dealership, there was a female saleswoman when I asked for one. Carol said she had been at Lexus for a year. It made me feel more comfortable taking a test drive with a woman. I relaxed more, and finally chose the Lexus 350.
As the papers were signed, I met many wonderful Lexus employees, including Mike, employed to show new car owners (and leasers) how to use the rather complicated electronics in the car. My Mercedes didn't have a navigation system, automatic trunk-opener, automatic headlights and automatic windshield wipers. My portable TomTom GPS was doing a superlative job helping me navigate the Mercedes, but kept dropping off the windshield.
Now, a few weeks later, I like the Lexus a lot. I especially like the automatic features. Only the trunk-opener and navigation system would have been part of the Mercedes competitor. As for the automatic headlights and windshield wipers that speed up and slow down, I do really like them and wonder if they are the wave of the future, the way automatic transmissions squashed manual transmissions in years past. The special feature called "ECT snow" very effectively clamps the car to the road and feels safe rounding corners in wet conditions. The Lexus 350 is not as heavy an SUV as the Mercedes and a little wider, and I am still wondering how it will work six months or a year down the road.
I did feel mildly disloyal not getting the American car, the Jeep Laredo, not a top-of-the-line Jeep. I cannot sugarcoat it. At least I looked at it. Many American cars are doing huge business abroad.
Acura cars are assembled in Canada, Mercedes are assembled here in America. Car salespersons have told me to consider the country of a car's origin as of paramount importance, specifically if it's the United States, to support our country. In the end it came down to style, price, features and availability. The fact that Lexus came from Japan fully loaded was actually minimally important on my list of priorities.
Not sure where American car manufacturers, parts makers and dealers are going, now that the auto bailout failed last night in Washington, but not many people my age or younger are interested in buying American cars. Buicks, Pontiacs, Cadillacs and so on and so forth need to find more buyers here, and fast, despite falling behind international competitors.
Wednesday, December 10, 2008
While waiting for President-Elect Obama to save America
It's an unusually balmy December day here in New Jersey, and Meredith Whitney of Oppenheimer, on CNBC, said this morning that 80% of the securitizations (money) that used to fund mortgages is not currently being used. Is this really true? Is it any wonder the housing market is not working? She also thinks house prices have 20%+ further to fall.
Also, she says that credit card advances have become a mainstream form of backup income to millions of Americans. Since credit card companies are now reining in such advance loans, it follows that incomes have become even more important to consumers across the country. When unemployment rises to projected future levels, where will money come from for millions of Americans?
CNBC also interviewed Abu Dhabi's "Taqa" Manager, Peter Barker-Homek. They are investing in (bailing out) some American infrastructure businesses in New Jersey that would take in-country funding, despite earlier American governmental intervention in the takeover of American ports by a Middle East company. Here's an article excerpt:
Sovereign Wealth Funds Briefing - Categorized | Alternative Investments, Investment, Market
Taqa to raise investment portfolio
Posted on 29 October 2008
From Business24-7.ae: The Abu Dhabi National Energy Company (Taqa), a semi-sovereign wealth fund controlled by the government, is pushing ahead with ambitious plans to lift its investment portfolio by nearly $39 billion (Dh143.24bn) within four years, its chief executive has said.
Peter Barker-Homek said the company is in control of a massive portfolio worth nearly $21bn and the next investment strategy would focus on the Middle East, India, Pakistan, North Africa, Europe and North America
http://www.opalesque.com/SWF_Briefing/?p=1297
The new American government can't obtain funding fast enough from the sound of it.
Also, she says that credit card advances have become a mainstream form of backup income to millions of Americans. Since credit card companies are now reining in such advance loans, it follows that incomes have become even more important to consumers across the country. When unemployment rises to projected future levels, where will money come from for millions of Americans?
CNBC also interviewed Abu Dhabi's "Taqa" Manager, Peter Barker-Homek. They are investing in (bailing out) some American infrastructure businesses in New Jersey that would take in-country funding, despite earlier American governmental intervention in the takeover of American ports by a Middle East company. Here's an article excerpt:
Sovereign Wealth Funds Briefing - Categorized | Alternative Investments, Investment, Market
Taqa to raise investment portfolio
Posted on 29 October 2008
From Business24-7.ae: The Abu Dhabi National Energy Company (Taqa), a semi-sovereign wealth fund controlled by the government, is pushing ahead with ambitious plans to lift its investment portfolio by nearly $39 billion (Dh143.24bn) within four years, its chief executive has said.
Peter Barker-Homek said the company is in control of a massive portfolio worth nearly $21bn and the next investment strategy would focus on the Middle East, India, Pakistan, North Africa, Europe and North America
http://www.opalesque.com/SWF_Briefing/?p=1297
The new American government can't obtain funding fast enough from the sound of it.
Monday, December 8, 2008
An oversold market in my view
Tim Knight, in this evening's Slope of Hope blog entry, thinks the market is still going to go down and he is usually right about that. Here is his latest projection:
* Long-Term (earlyish 2009 forward) - mega-bearish
* Medium-Term (next couple of months) - bullish
* Short-Term (minutes/hours/day or two) - bearish
Looks like it is wise to be wary short-term and keep vigilant. But surely, buying up stocks that look amazingly cheap can't be that bad a strategy. I call most stocks oversold at this point. I don't agree with him and hope he will have to change his long-term tune. Then again, I could be wrong. Stock prices could stay flat for some time, I suppose, but I hope not. One of us is going to be correct, and it will be me.
* Long-Term (earlyish 2009 forward) - mega-bearish
* Medium-Term (next couple of months) - bullish
* Short-Term (minutes/hours/day or two) - bearish
Looks like it is wise to be wary short-term and keep vigilant. But surely, buying up stocks that look amazingly cheap can't be that bad a strategy. I call most stocks oversold at this point. I don't agree with him and hope he will have to change his long-term tune. Then again, I could be wrong. Stock prices could stay flat for some time, I suppose, but I hope not. One of us is going to be correct, and it will be me.
Some stocks to watch for the upside, finally!
Mon Dec 8 2008
Dow 8,934.18 +298.76 (3.46%)
S&P 500 909.70 +33.63 (3.84%)
Nasdaq 1,571.74 +62.43 (4.14%)
10y bond 2.74% +0.01 (0.37%)
A good up day for the stock market today. President-Elect Obama's promise of the largest infrastructure initiative since American highways were first created boosted morale with investors.
EBS is a stock to have invested in at the beginning of the year as the anthrax vaccine maker has gone up fourfold this year. I have been watching it lately with wonder. What a rare stock! It would not have attracted much attention last year, but this year it is showing its superstar status. Shows the sorry state of the economy if a vaccine maker is a big winner, wouldn't you say?
An article worth reading in Forbes likes EBS for the long term, and lists (with reasons) four other possible winners for the long run:
(2) PETS - PetMed Express, the nation's largest pet pharmacy
(3) BER - W.R.Berkley, a Connecticut-based niche area insurer
(4) APOL - Apollo Group, online education
(5) LPHI - Life Partners Holdings, secondary life insurance
http://www.forbes.com/2008/12/05/apollo-petmed-emergent-pf-ii-in_jr_1205guruscreen_inl.html?partner=yahootix
Dow 8,934.18 +298.76 (3.46%)
S&P 500 909.70 +33.63 (3.84%)
Nasdaq 1,571.74 +62.43 (4.14%)
10y bond 2.74% +0.01 (0.37%)
A good up day for the stock market today. President-Elect Obama's promise of the largest infrastructure initiative since American highways were first created boosted morale with investors.
EBS is a stock to have invested in at the beginning of the year as the anthrax vaccine maker has gone up fourfold this year. I have been watching it lately with wonder. What a rare stock! It would not have attracted much attention last year, but this year it is showing its superstar status. Shows the sorry state of the economy if a vaccine maker is a big winner, wouldn't you say?
An article worth reading in Forbes likes EBS for the long term, and lists (with reasons) four other possible winners for the long run:
(2) PETS - PetMed Express, the nation's largest pet pharmacy
(3) BER - W.R.Berkley, a Connecticut-based niche area insurer
(4) APOL - Apollo Group, online education
(5) LPHI - Life Partners Holdings, secondary life insurance
http://www.forbes.com/2008/12/05/apollo-petmed-emergent-pf-ii-in_jr_1205guruscreen_inl.html?partner=yahootix
Friday, December 5, 2008
It's All Good
I heard a blogger interviewed on radio today saying that there aren't enough bloggers in America today. (Actually, I missed most of the interview!).
I haven't met any others, that I know of. It's probably true.
The radio interviewer had just made fun of "bloggers", with a Palinesque derision. Yes, Sarah Palin, who called bloggers “kids in pajamas sitting in the basement of their parents’ homes”. It didn't surprise me the man sounded defensive. (I do wish NPR could be more nonpartisan).
Most bloggers stop after a few entries. The time invested and the surprisingly hard, solitary work it is for ephemeral return could factor into it.
It might surprise those unfamiliar with blogging to know that most bloggers' immediate family members don't often, if ever, read their blogs. It follows, then, that bloggers don't get much encouragement. They also get paid less than mathematicians, like most hard scientists, another group whose writings tend to be unread by their own families. The point is, it's a wonder of the world that there are any bloggers at all.
On the other hand, it is fun to get your own views out there, and sometimes, you know that extremely intelligent and educated readers in places far, far away have read your entries for a long time. Maybe they are quietly reposing alone with candlelight and a sleeping pet. Perhaps they just want to rest for a few minutes on a sunny, breezy mountaintop with a view and an internet connection. Somehow that makes it all worthwhile.
I haven't met any others, that I know of. It's probably true.
The radio interviewer had just made fun of "bloggers", with a Palinesque derision. Yes, Sarah Palin, who called bloggers “kids in pajamas sitting in the basement of their parents’ homes”. It didn't surprise me the man sounded defensive. (I do wish NPR could be more nonpartisan).
Most bloggers stop after a few entries. The time invested and the surprisingly hard, solitary work it is for ephemeral return could factor into it.
It might surprise those unfamiliar with blogging to know that most bloggers' immediate family members don't often, if ever, read their blogs. It follows, then, that bloggers don't get much encouragement. They also get paid less than mathematicians, like most hard scientists, another group whose writings tend to be unread by their own families. The point is, it's a wonder of the world that there are any bloggers at all.
On the other hand, it is fun to get your own views out there, and sometimes, you know that extremely intelligent and educated readers in places far, far away have read your entries for a long time. Maybe they are quietly reposing alone with candlelight and a sleeping pet. Perhaps they just want to rest for a few minutes on a sunny, breezy mountaintop with a view and an internet connection. Somehow that makes it all worthwhile.
Thursday, December 4, 2008
Why the end of day selling?
More end of day selling happened today.
Why?
Maria Bartiromo and Dylan Ratigan again were asking that question on CNBC.
End of day distributions by hedge-funds was one explanation. The new rule that specialists have started to use in the last month to sell in the last thirty minutes was another explanation.
NEW YORK, Oct 24 (Reuters) - The New York Stock Exchange said on Friday it will implement rules next week that will stop trading floor specialists from seeing orders before the public.
Whatever the explanation, the result remains that the stock market day is ending down again.
The specialists -- who will now be called Designated Market Makers (DMMs) -- traditionally use their advanced look at orders to find an appropriate trading partner, thereby calming volatile markets.
In a statement, NYSE said the DMMs still must maintain the orderly trading of stocks 'in periods of significant imbalances.'
SEC will also test a program that rewards market makers who take the other side of incoming orders, providing liquidity in volatile markets.
Not sure if the article above clarifies or makes the issue more complex.
Why?
Maria Bartiromo and Dylan Ratigan again were asking that question on CNBC.
End of day distributions by hedge-funds was one explanation. The new rule that specialists have started to use in the last month to sell in the last thirty minutes was another explanation.
NEW YORK, Oct 24 (Reuters) - The New York Stock Exchange said on Friday it will implement rules next week that will stop trading floor specialists from seeing orders before the public.
Whatever the explanation, the result remains that the stock market day is ending down again.
The specialists -- who will now be called Designated Market Makers (DMMs) -- traditionally use their advanced look at orders to find an appropriate trading partner, thereby calming volatile markets.
In a statement, NYSE said the DMMs still must maintain the orderly trading of stocks 'in periods of significant imbalances.'
SEC will also test a program that rewards market makers who take the other side of incoming orders, providing liquidity in volatile markets.
Not sure if the article above clarifies or makes the issue more complex.
Wednesday, December 3, 2008
The Beige Book Summary - December 3, 2008
Here is a summary of today's Beige Book published eight times per year by the Federal Reserve Board. The Beige Book is divided into sections: Consumer Spending and Tourism, Services, Manufacturing, Real Estate and Construction, Spending and Finance, Agriculture and Natural Resources, Labor Markets and Prices. The Beige Book also analyzes all Districts of the country in detail.
It was hard to find the bright, positive spots, but here they are:
1. Wage and price pressures are easing.
Wage pressures were largely subdued. District reports characterized price pressures as easing in light of some decreases in retail prices and declines in input prices, particularly energy, fuel, and many raw materials and food products...In San Francisco, the region's few open positions have been attracting large numbers of applicants, thereby alleviating upward wage pressures.
2.Discount stores reported stronger sales volumes than department stores.
3. Kansas City noted in increase in demand for used cars.
4. Lower gasoline prices are helping some ski businesses... reservations at a ski resort in the Richmond District were somewhat stronger for the Thanksgiving and Christmas holidays, and some tourism businesses in the Minneapolis District were cautiously optimistic for the winter season in part due to lower gasoline prices.
5. Lower gas prices are also, in general, helping stabilize retail inventories. Inventory levels were relatively stable, as many stores anticipated the recent slowdown in sales.
6. In general services demand is deteriorating, with exceptions. Boston reported mixed conditions for information technology services, ranging from declines of 10 percent to gains of 25 percent. Minneapolis and Dallas reported growing demand for bankruptcy services, and Richmond noted that telecommunications and CPA firms were facing strong demand.
7. Boston, Chicago, St. Louis and San Francisco showed increased demand for aerospace manufacturers and St. Louis, Dallas and San Francisco reported increases in food processing.
8. Most of the real estate news is gloomy, with the more bullish news that there is relatively stronger demand for lower- and middle-priced "starter homes."
So there it is, wage and price pressures are easing or leveling off. Discount and dollar stores and food processors and CPA firms are getting business. Lower gas prices are helping all around.
At least there is a little encouraging news.
http://www.federalreserve.gov/FOMC/BeigeBook/2008/20081203/default.htm
It was hard to find the bright, positive spots, but here they are:
1. Wage and price pressures are easing.
Wage pressures were largely subdued. District reports characterized price pressures as easing in light of some decreases in retail prices and declines in input prices, particularly energy, fuel, and many raw materials and food products...In San Francisco, the region's few open positions have been attracting large numbers of applicants, thereby alleviating upward wage pressures.
2.Discount stores reported stronger sales volumes than department stores.
3. Kansas City noted in increase in demand for used cars.
4. Lower gasoline prices are helping some ski businesses... reservations at a ski resort in the Richmond District were somewhat stronger for the Thanksgiving and Christmas holidays, and some tourism businesses in the Minneapolis District were cautiously optimistic for the winter season in part due to lower gasoline prices.
5. Lower gas prices are also, in general, helping stabilize retail inventories. Inventory levels were relatively stable, as many stores anticipated the recent slowdown in sales.
6. In general services demand is deteriorating, with exceptions. Boston reported mixed conditions for information technology services, ranging from declines of 10 percent to gains of 25 percent. Minneapolis and Dallas reported growing demand for bankruptcy services, and Richmond noted that telecommunications and CPA firms were facing strong demand.
7. Boston, Chicago, St. Louis and San Francisco showed increased demand for aerospace manufacturers and St. Louis, Dallas and San Francisco reported increases in food processing.
8. Most of the real estate news is gloomy, with the more bullish news that there is relatively stronger demand for lower- and middle-priced "starter homes."
So there it is, wage and price pressures are easing or leveling off. Discount and dollar stores and food processors and CPA firms are getting business. Lower gas prices are helping all around.
At least there is a little encouraging news.
http://www.federalreserve.gov/FOMC/BeigeBook/2008/20081203/default.htm
Who knew where the stock market would end the day?
While there is some encouraging news, watching the stock market still feels like being in a boat on a sea with huge swells.
Today's market was down 200 points at first and then ended up over 2%, almost +200 points on the Dow, another 400 point move. The big drama continues to be the volatility of the market.
Wed Dec 03 2008 18:01:11 GMT-0500 (Eastern Standard Time) - Markets Closed
Dow 8,591.69 +172.60 (2.05%)
S&P 500 870.74 +21.93 (2.58%)
Nasdaq 1,492.38 +42.58 (2.94%)
10y bond 2.65% -0.07 (-2.57%)
It's true the market went up today in spite of weakening figures in the Beige Book. There was a lot of buzz on CNBC about the fact that mortgage filings and refinancings, which were even a higher number, were up a lot last week as a sign that the mortgage market might finally be turning around. Today, this helped bank stocks:
IYF-iShares Dow Jones US Financial (ETF) (NYSE) 42.79 +2.11 (5.19%) Dec 3 4:00pm ET
and homebuilder stocks:
XHB-SPDR HOMEBUILDERS ETF 11.99 0.94 8.51% 03:59 PM EST on 12/03/2008).
The Governor of New Jersey and the Governor of Pennsylvania are trying hard to stop foreclosures, the key to turning the housing market around, and announced various initiatives that are now in place to help give people time for the next eighteen months or so. Have to pity those who have just filed. But it's a start.
This shaky, dizzying and nauseating market has me sympathizing with my temporarily under-the-weather daughter. It almost feels like seasickness.
Here's a link to an article about Governor Corzine's bill to help homeowners:
http://www.nj.com/news/index.ssf/2008/12/corzine_signs_bill_to_help_hom.html
Today's market was down 200 points at first and then ended up over 2%, almost +200 points on the Dow, another 400 point move. The big drama continues to be the volatility of the market.
Wed Dec 03 2008 18:01:11 GMT-0500 (Eastern Standard Time) - Markets Closed
Dow 8,591.69 +172.60 (2.05%)
S&P 500 870.74 +21.93 (2.58%)
Nasdaq 1,492.38 +42.58 (2.94%)
10y bond 2.65% -0.07 (-2.57%)
It's true the market went up today in spite of weakening figures in the Beige Book. There was a lot of buzz on CNBC about the fact that mortgage filings and refinancings, which were even a higher number, were up a lot last week as a sign that the mortgage market might finally be turning around. Today, this helped bank stocks:
IYF-iShares Dow Jones US Financial (ETF) (NYSE) 42.79 +2.11 (5.19%) Dec 3 4:00pm ET
and homebuilder stocks:
XHB-SPDR HOMEBUILDERS ETF 11.99 0.94 8.51% 03:59 PM EST on 12/03/2008).
The Governor of New Jersey and the Governor of Pennsylvania are trying hard to stop foreclosures, the key to turning the housing market around, and announced various initiatives that are now in place to help give people time for the next eighteen months or so. Have to pity those who have just filed. But it's a start.
This shaky, dizzying and nauseating market has me sympathizing with my temporarily under-the-weather daughter. It almost feels like seasickness.
Here's a link to an article about Governor Corzine's bill to help homeowners:
http://www.nj.com/news/index.ssf/2008/12/corzine_signs_bill_to_help_hom.html
Saturday, November 29, 2008
How to get a new septic system installed - From a consumer's point of view
There are many websites to read with information from companies and engineers and videos, too, that are very helpful. Here are suggestions to achieve septic system installation success and completion from the consumer's point of view. This is a map. Here is our story.
1. Have a septic inspection performed to decide if you need a new one. I cannot emphasize the importance of this enough, as my story below details,* but if you are selling your home, and you have a septic system, an inspection must be made, at least here in New Jersey. It is the job of the septic inspector to check the current size of the tank(s) and decide whether they are sufficient in proportion to the number of the bedrooms in the house.
2. Hire a Septic Designer. If you do not think you need a new septic system, pay for another, more thorough septic inspection. If the need for a new septic system is required, ask around, specifically to the septic inspector, for the name of more than one Septic Designer. These are engineers with degrees in agricultural engineering and experience with land management of all kinds. They will be your official planner and manager of your project that you hire to draw a physical plan, organize the visits by various town officials for approvals and recommend and help supervise local septic system companies who will question your engineer on the design.
The Septic Designer will make a plan for a new system on your land, listen to your opinions, and design it wherever on your property you can both agree on, and should take the tension and fear out of the project for you. It is not necessary to be on site for this project, except perhaps meeting with the Septic Designer at a bare minimum. Signings of a new septic system plan and eventually the septic system installation contract must be completed, but a good Septic Designer is a great asset to guide the project to successful completion. (Nobody would want an unfinished septic system on their property.)
3. Have a field test performed. Your Septic Designer will want to test the ground and have a large hole dug six to twelve feet deep into the earth to test the composition of the soil, and to take water tests to determine the depth of the water table. He (or she) will organize this dig and have excavations performed. Charges will be made depending on the quantity of work done (i.e. the number of exploratory holes dug). This will involve the company's delivery (temporarily) of equipment (backhoe(s)) to your home.
4. Obtain a design from the Septic Designer. When your Designer draws up a design he is likely to ask you for remuneration for his services rendered. This amount is very worthwhile as he makes the project run without a hitch, or at least it did in my case. He will tell you the approximate cost you should expect to have to pay for the installation, and that will help define your financial responsibilities. Then the Designer gives you an official copy (or three) of the septic system plan and he also gives some copies to the municipal office.
5. Pay for permits and approvals.These fees can usually be mailed, paid in person or by the Septic Designer. The town health officer visits and okays the project in this town.
6. Choose a septic system company. You will likely wish to speak to those who will be responsible for digging up the earth and finishing the project. These septic system installers are the ones you will be paying the most to for the project. The Septic Designer should be able to provide you with a list of four or more experienced and reputable local septic system installation companies. The septic system companies can make estimates and sign contracts at your convenience, even on weekends. You should look for a company with great experience, capability and reliability.
By now, your Septic Designer is on speed dial and can be consulted as an independent sounding board as you carefully choose your septic system company. Your landscaper and local municipal officials will also likely have definite opinions on the work of local septic system companies and can be another valuable source of information as you choose the appropriate company. You may or may not wish to use the company that performed the Septic Designer's field test. (We used a different company for the installation.) The septic system companies will look at the project and come up with an estimated price that the Designer will already likely have estimated for you as the approximate price you should expect to pay. The actual installation process takes seven days or less.
7. Sign a contract with the septic system company and firm up the date. The date of completion can be included in the contract to protect yourself. Specifying continuous days (except weekends) is also achievable and desirable, weather permitting.
After signing off on the contract, all you need to do is to come up with the money to give to the septic system company in regular checks during and after they dig.
Earth-moving machinery will arrive on your site. Meeting the septic company's lead managing supervisor is always nice. They love to be thanked throughout the process, although of course, you, the consumer deserves to be thanked. I know. The contractors will remove earth and dig a large hole according to the Septic Designer's plan. The location of the hole might have to be shifted if there are boulders hidden underground.
The house system is connected to the new system, and disconnected from the old system, and only requires about six hours use (or less) of the house interior water supply to build that connection.
The installation of new piping is followed by truckloads of sand (at least this location required sand from the Jersey shore) to embed the septic equipment. By now there will be much upheaval of the ground, and many trucks (about 75 truck visits in my case, mostly repeating). There will also have been many visits by the town health and engineering divisions (coordinated by the Designer and septic system company) to further okay the project.
8. Expect it to be landscaped after the project to obtain final approval. After the work has been completed, the earth must all be roughly leveled to grade, then more finely graded for landscaping and seeded by professionals hired by the septic system company. This is all part of the cost from the septic system company.
9. Obtain all necessary final approvals to complete the project so that when it comes time to sell the house, everything will be in order.
From first inspection to final approval our project took four months to complete. Our permits for the project totaled $1,000.00. And our entire project cost about $400.00 for the septic inspection, $3,000.00 for the septic design, $1,600.00 for the field test and about $36,000.00 for the installation of the project. The actual installation was dug continuously taking less than a week because of the excellent weather conditions in late August, on time and on budget. Final municipal approval came after grass was growing on top, four months from the beginning.
The outline above is intended to to assist you in a helpful way with the steps involved in the project of getting a new septic system installed. Your experience and costs will ultimately likely vary somewhat from this. But it is a road that many others have traveled on and we hope from this you can foresee the general route.
Getting a new septic system installed is a daunting prospect for those unfamiliar with the process. After it’s all done, and works perfectly, you will feel virtuous, environmentally correct, and very relieved that it is over.
*Here’s our story: Our old stone house in west central New Jersey is about 200 years old (c. 1810), with a 1930s addition on one side. To sell it we needed to have a septic inspection completed even though there was not a single thing wrong with our existing system.
A septic inspector (step 1) who was recommended to us by a friend dug down to our septic tank and estimated the size, but the size was not sufficient to the number of bedrooms we had, something the town officials require. He guessed that another tank I mentioned to him was a cesspool or something but did not dig down and find it. He said he couldn’t find it. He orally failed our system but has not, seven months later, provided us with a report.
The Septic Designer took the word of the septic inspector that we needed a new septic system and drew up the plan. When it came time for the septic company to dig, they disconnected and completely disabled the septic tank and then went to the other tank and found while digging that the second tank was not a cesspool but was another good septic tank, and that the two together were sufficient for the number of bedrooms we had. They decided that we had two septic systems, one coming out of the old part of the house, and the other coming out of the 1930s addition. But by then, it was too late in the process to stop, and the work continued. We now have a brand new septic system.
The town housing inspector now says that we should have had another septic inspection made, but only told us that information after the new system was installed. One would think that the first person, the septic inspector, paid to make the decision would do the job properly. Getting another general septic inspection and maybe several would have been a good idea.
Also, I am less than happy that we had to have a new mound in the grass above the septic field. An unmounded look was my one requirement that was not met. I was assured all around, but only during and after the installation, that the mound is absolutely necessary and unavoidable in our area to obtain final approval. A small elevation was threatened, but a large mound is there now. Perhaps bushes and small trees will disguise it.
Maybe someone out there can benefit from this and not get a new septic system if there is no need for it.
If you are near the Princeton, New Jersey, area, I highly recommend these companies:
Craig Patterson, of Septics by Patterson, Inc., 887 New Road, Churchville, PA 18966, (215)942-9017. Our gratitude goes to our Septic Designer and son, for his patient explanations and strong but gentle guidance throughout the process.
Thomas Burd Excavations, Lambertville, NJ 08530-2610 (609) 397-1157. Awesome field test performance on a hot day.
Ernest Consoli & Sons Incorporated, 155 Hopewell Wertsville Rd., Hopewell, NJ 08525 (609) 466-3258 did the septic system installation. Thanks for doing such a big job.
1. Have a septic inspection performed to decide if you need a new one. I cannot emphasize the importance of this enough, as my story below details,* but if you are selling your home, and you have a septic system, an inspection must be made, at least here in New Jersey. It is the job of the septic inspector to check the current size of the tank(s) and decide whether they are sufficient in proportion to the number of the bedrooms in the house.
2. Hire a Septic Designer. If you do not think you need a new septic system, pay for another, more thorough septic inspection. If the need for a new septic system is required, ask around, specifically to the septic inspector, for the name of more than one Septic Designer. These are engineers with degrees in agricultural engineering and experience with land management of all kinds. They will be your official planner and manager of your project that you hire to draw a physical plan, organize the visits by various town officials for approvals and recommend and help supervise local septic system companies who will question your engineer on the design.
The Septic Designer will make a plan for a new system on your land, listen to your opinions, and design it wherever on your property you can both agree on, and should take the tension and fear out of the project for you. It is not necessary to be on site for this project, except perhaps meeting with the Septic Designer at a bare minimum. Signings of a new septic system plan and eventually the septic system installation contract must be completed, but a good Septic Designer is a great asset to guide the project to successful completion. (Nobody would want an unfinished septic system on their property.)
3. Have a field test performed. Your Septic Designer will want to test the ground and have a large hole dug six to twelve feet deep into the earth to test the composition of the soil, and to take water tests to determine the depth of the water table. He (or she) will organize this dig and have excavations performed. Charges will be made depending on the quantity of work done (i.e. the number of exploratory holes dug). This will involve the company's delivery (temporarily) of equipment (backhoe(s)) to your home.
4. Obtain a design from the Septic Designer. When your Designer draws up a design he is likely to ask you for remuneration for his services rendered. This amount is very worthwhile as he makes the project run without a hitch, or at least it did in my case. He will tell you the approximate cost you should expect to have to pay for the installation, and that will help define your financial responsibilities. Then the Designer gives you an official copy (or three) of the septic system plan and he also gives some copies to the municipal office.
5. Pay for permits and approvals.These fees can usually be mailed, paid in person or by the Septic Designer. The town health officer visits and okays the project in this town.
6. Choose a septic system company. You will likely wish to speak to those who will be responsible for digging up the earth and finishing the project. These septic system installers are the ones you will be paying the most to for the project. The Septic Designer should be able to provide you with a list of four or more experienced and reputable local septic system installation companies. The septic system companies can make estimates and sign contracts at your convenience, even on weekends. You should look for a company with great experience, capability and reliability.
By now, your Septic Designer is on speed dial and can be consulted as an independent sounding board as you carefully choose your septic system company. Your landscaper and local municipal officials will also likely have definite opinions on the work of local septic system companies and can be another valuable source of information as you choose the appropriate company. You may or may not wish to use the company that performed the Septic Designer's field test. (We used a different company for the installation.) The septic system companies will look at the project and come up with an estimated price that the Designer will already likely have estimated for you as the approximate price you should expect to pay. The actual installation process takes seven days or less.
7. Sign a contract with the septic system company and firm up the date. The date of completion can be included in the contract to protect yourself. Specifying continuous days (except weekends) is also achievable and desirable, weather permitting.
After signing off on the contract, all you need to do is to come up with the money to give to the septic system company in regular checks during and after they dig.
Earth-moving machinery will arrive on your site. Meeting the septic company's lead managing supervisor is always nice. They love to be thanked throughout the process, although of course, you, the consumer deserves to be thanked. I know. The contractors will remove earth and dig a large hole according to the Septic Designer's plan. The location of the hole might have to be shifted if there are boulders hidden underground.
The house system is connected to the new system, and disconnected from the old system, and only requires about six hours use (or less) of the house interior water supply to build that connection.
The installation of new piping is followed by truckloads of sand (at least this location required sand from the Jersey shore) to embed the septic equipment. By now there will be much upheaval of the ground, and many trucks (about 75 truck visits in my case, mostly repeating). There will also have been many visits by the town health and engineering divisions (coordinated by the Designer and septic system company) to further okay the project.
8. Expect it to be landscaped after the project to obtain final approval. After the work has been completed, the earth must all be roughly leveled to grade, then more finely graded for landscaping and seeded by professionals hired by the septic system company. This is all part of the cost from the septic system company.
9. Obtain all necessary final approvals to complete the project so that when it comes time to sell the house, everything will be in order.
From first inspection to final approval our project took four months to complete. Our permits for the project totaled $1,000.00. And our entire project cost about $400.00 for the septic inspection, $3,000.00 for the septic design, $1,600.00 for the field test and about $36,000.00 for the installation of the project. The actual installation was dug continuously taking less than a week because of the excellent weather conditions in late August, on time and on budget. Final municipal approval came after grass was growing on top, four months from the beginning.
The outline above is intended to to assist you in a helpful way with the steps involved in the project of getting a new septic system installed. Your experience and costs will ultimately likely vary somewhat from this. But it is a road that many others have traveled on and we hope from this you can foresee the general route.
Getting a new septic system installed is a daunting prospect for those unfamiliar with the process. After it’s all done, and works perfectly, you will feel virtuous, environmentally correct, and very relieved that it is over.
*Here’s our story: Our old stone house in west central New Jersey is about 200 years old (c. 1810), with a 1930s addition on one side. To sell it we needed to have a septic inspection completed even though there was not a single thing wrong with our existing system.
A septic inspector (step 1) who was recommended to us by a friend dug down to our septic tank and estimated the size, but the size was not sufficient to the number of bedrooms we had, something the town officials require. He guessed that another tank I mentioned to him was a cesspool or something but did not dig down and find it. He said he couldn’t find it. He orally failed our system but has not, seven months later, provided us with a report.
The Septic Designer took the word of the septic inspector that we needed a new septic system and drew up the plan. When it came time for the septic company to dig, they disconnected and completely disabled the septic tank and then went to the other tank and found while digging that the second tank was not a cesspool but was another good septic tank, and that the two together were sufficient for the number of bedrooms we had. They decided that we had two septic systems, one coming out of the old part of the house, and the other coming out of the 1930s addition. But by then, it was too late in the process to stop, and the work continued. We now have a brand new septic system.
The town housing inspector now says that we should have had another septic inspection made, but only told us that information after the new system was installed. One would think that the first person, the septic inspector, paid to make the decision would do the job properly. Getting another general septic inspection and maybe several would have been a good idea.
Also, I am less than happy that we had to have a new mound in the grass above the septic field. An unmounded look was my one requirement that was not met. I was assured all around, but only during and after the installation, that the mound is absolutely necessary and unavoidable in our area to obtain final approval. A small elevation was threatened, but a large mound is there now. Perhaps bushes and small trees will disguise it.
Maybe someone out there can benefit from this and not get a new septic system if there is no need for it.
If you are near the Princeton, New Jersey, area, I highly recommend these companies:
Craig Patterson, of Septics by Patterson, Inc., 887 New Road, Churchville, PA 18966, (215)942-9017. Our gratitude goes to our Septic Designer and son, for his patient explanations and strong but gentle guidance throughout the process.
Thomas Burd Excavations, Lambertville, NJ 08530-2610 (609) 397-1157. Awesome field test performance on a hot day.
Ernest Consoli & Sons Incorporated, 155 Hopewell Wertsville Rd., Hopewell, NJ 08525 (609) 466-3258 did the septic system installation. Thanks for doing such a big job.
Thursday, November 20, 2008
American credit score policies should change
Credit score companies in America should change their ways as a matter of progressive social policy. They should allow us all to see our own credit scores without punishing consumers for checking their own scores. They should improve their software to allow credit score availability to consumers (of their own scores).
To be clear, it makes no more sense that one cannot check one's credit score than if a bank charged $200.00 every time a client checked on her bank balance or if a weigh scale added twenty pounds (by mistake) every time a man checked his weight. If that always happened, banks would lose customers and weigh scales would be tossed.
This is important because if a person cannot get credit, it can be more devastating than simply getting a speeding ticket for going over a speed limit. It can limit availability of food, clothing and shelter and thereby create social distress and further unrest and inequality.
Instead, credit checkers charge us to see our scores and punish our scores by lowering them if we check them often. It's so unfair and uncivilized to consumers.
Laws favor powerful credit score companies far above individual human rights and it has always been a policy that is wrong, wrong, wrong.
Since the system breeds inaccuracy because of the lack of transparency, and the unaccountability and secretiveness of the scorers, it is time for it to be changed. When and how will this stop when it is so much a part of the system? It's a hard problem. It will take legislation to correct and improve credit checking and prohibit scorers from abusing their power as they currently do.
Why can't credit lender inquiries be separated from self-check inquiries? If credit scorers had to, by law, they could easily make computer programs that allow it to happen. Password-protected sites (or variations thereof) could be implemented to protect consumers checking their own scores. The results would produce clearer pictures of creditworthiness for all.
Many lenders and vendors hoped that with the advent of computers, this credit score problem that has long existed would finally be corrected. It hasn't been. The credit system unfairly persists in unjustly and secretly lowering scores for credit-checking our own scores. It also has not done well warning affected individuals, ultimately all of us.
The following quote from Wikipedia concerning "credit scores" highlights the very problem many are having now, impacting mortgage lending (and housing prices) and consumer behaviors (buying nearly everything else):
....."hard" credit inquiries are made by lenders when consumers are seeking credit or a loan. Lenders, when granted a permissible purpose, as defined by the Fair Credit Reporting Act, can check a credit history for the purposes of extending credit to a consumer. Hard inquiries from lenders directly affect the borrower's credit score. Keeping credit inquiries to a minimum can help a person's credit rating. A lender may perceive many inquiries over a short period of time on a person's report as a signal that the person is in financial difficulty and is looking for loans and will possibly consider that person a poor credit risk.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Credit_records.
The truth is, that it generally does hurt to get a credit check of our own credit, or at least, the rumor persists that checking our own scores lowers them. Credit checks from multiple unspecified sources lower scores, we know that from the quote above. While some work has been done by credit scoring companies to open up, rumors indicate that frequent inquiries still lower scores because computer programs do not distinguish sources of credit score requests. The truth is that despite having "free access to records" we definitely have to pay to receive our own scores. This is a disservice to all consumers who would prefer to check our own scores at will.
The point is that the way scores are now created and lowered (uncontrollably and erroneously at times) destroys lives and is an increasing and dangerous problem because of the wide use of the internet amid newly-tightened lending requirements. Of course, I am not advocating publishing credit scores indiscriminately and publicly in newspapers or on the internet. Keeping records private is of paramount importance.
This problem came up in discussions today with car dealers while I was looking for a new car. By the way, I don't think there is anything wrong with my credit score though I am not about to check and possibly lower it to find out. But I, for one, would just love to be able to check my score for free as often as I want to without being threatened with punishment by credit score companies who are holding all of the cards and are unaccountably secretive. So would everyone else. I am completely sure of that. Easy technically, the current unfair system should finally be changed. Let's hope the new Administration can better serve individuals. Those credit score companies are far louder and more aggressive than any one taxpayer.
To be clear, it makes no more sense that one cannot check one's credit score than if a bank charged $200.00 every time a client checked on her bank balance or if a weigh scale added twenty pounds (by mistake) every time a man checked his weight. If that always happened, banks would lose customers and weigh scales would be tossed.
This is important because if a person cannot get credit, it can be more devastating than simply getting a speeding ticket for going over a speed limit. It can limit availability of food, clothing and shelter and thereby create social distress and further unrest and inequality.
Instead, credit checkers charge us to see our scores and punish our scores by lowering them if we check them often. It's so unfair and uncivilized to consumers.
Laws favor powerful credit score companies far above individual human rights and it has always been a policy that is wrong, wrong, wrong.
Since the system breeds inaccuracy because of the lack of transparency, and the unaccountability and secretiveness of the scorers, it is time for it to be changed. When and how will this stop when it is so much a part of the system? It's a hard problem. It will take legislation to correct and improve credit checking and prohibit scorers from abusing their power as they currently do.
Why can't credit lender inquiries be separated from self-check inquiries? If credit scorers had to, by law, they could easily make computer programs that allow it to happen. Password-protected sites (or variations thereof) could be implemented to protect consumers checking their own scores. The results would produce clearer pictures of creditworthiness for all.
Many lenders and vendors hoped that with the advent of computers, this credit score problem that has long existed would finally be corrected. It hasn't been. The credit system unfairly persists in unjustly and secretly lowering scores for credit-checking our own scores. It also has not done well warning affected individuals, ultimately all of us.
The following quote from Wikipedia concerning "credit scores" highlights the very problem many are having now, impacting mortgage lending (and housing prices) and consumer behaviors (buying nearly everything else):
....."hard" credit inquiries are made by lenders when consumers are seeking credit or a loan. Lenders, when granted a permissible purpose, as defined by the Fair Credit Reporting Act, can check a credit history for the purposes of extending credit to a consumer. Hard inquiries from lenders directly affect the borrower's credit score. Keeping credit inquiries to a minimum can help a person's credit rating. A lender may perceive many inquiries over a short period of time on a person's report as a signal that the person is in financial difficulty and is looking for loans and will possibly consider that person a poor credit risk.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Credit_records.
The truth is, that it generally does hurt to get a credit check of our own credit, or at least, the rumor persists that checking our own scores lowers them. Credit checks from multiple unspecified sources lower scores, we know that from the quote above. While some work has been done by credit scoring companies to open up, rumors indicate that frequent inquiries still lower scores because computer programs do not distinguish sources of credit score requests. The truth is that despite having "free access to records" we definitely have to pay to receive our own scores. This is a disservice to all consumers who would prefer to check our own scores at will.
The point is that the way scores are now created and lowered (uncontrollably and erroneously at times) destroys lives and is an increasing and dangerous problem because of the wide use of the internet amid newly-tightened lending requirements. Of course, I am not advocating publishing credit scores indiscriminately and publicly in newspapers or on the internet. Keeping records private is of paramount importance.
This problem came up in discussions today with car dealers while I was looking for a new car. By the way, I don't think there is anything wrong with my credit score though I am not about to check and possibly lower it to find out. But I, for one, would just love to be able to check my score for free as often as I want to without being threatened with punishment by credit score companies who are holding all of the cards and are unaccountably secretive. So would everyone else. I am completely sure of that. Easy technically, the current unfair system should finally be changed. Let's hope the new Administration can better serve individuals. Those credit score companies are far louder and more aggressive than any one taxpayer.
Saturday, November 15, 2008
The Triple Pier Antiques Show 2008 - a review
Saturday, November 14, I attended the 2008 Triple Pier Antiques Show at Piers 92 and 94 in Manhattan, New York. It continues tomorrow, Sunday, November 15.
Yes, the antiques show was spectacular. It always is, but this year exceeded every year so far. I would urge you to drop everything to get there. Run! It is huge.
I loved all the old estate jewelry especially. These are beautiful, refined pieces in excellent taste. Vintage clothing, jewelry, furniture and more appeared in Pier 92. Pier 94 held furniture, antiques and semi-modern, and more jewelry, paintings, carpets and so on.
There were so many interesting pieces that it was frustrating not to be able to buy to my heart's content. Suitcases are the best way to haul away loot. It was like too much of a good thing, and too good to be true. Everything was carefully organized and displayed, generally creating great excitement.
Despite the rainy day, many celebrities, moneyed from all over and just some rather oddly-dressed people showed up. I saw Graydon Carter, editor of Vanity Fair.
I realized that I had been walking seven nonstop hours by the end and it felt like a marathon. Well, I did stop for a few educational short conversations with vendors. My motto is to "fight ignorance".
As I kept hearing, "that's life!" Going to the Show is a great way to learn more about life, and the way people with money and collecting interests have lived.
Security was excellent but cab-finders outside were not available. I was turned away by twelve cabs before one would take me away! Except for the rain, I would have driven there as I usually do. Hope that is better for you. Sunday will bring sun.
There is an article in the New York Times today about how conspicuous consumption is again appearing unfashionable, but that is another story. It would be interesting to know if customers were buying more than other years or less today at the Show, but prices were definitely being negotiated.
http://www.stellashows.com/cgi-bin/texis/scripts/showpromo_info/stellashowdetail.html?idnum=ZJD1463&showabb=triplepier20021109
Yes, the antiques show was spectacular. It always is, but this year exceeded every year so far. I would urge you to drop everything to get there. Run! It is huge.
I loved all the old estate jewelry especially. These are beautiful, refined pieces in excellent taste. Vintage clothing, jewelry, furniture and more appeared in Pier 92. Pier 94 held furniture, antiques and semi-modern, and more jewelry, paintings, carpets and so on.
There were so many interesting pieces that it was frustrating not to be able to buy to my heart's content. Suitcases are the best way to haul away loot. It was like too much of a good thing, and too good to be true. Everything was carefully organized and displayed, generally creating great excitement.
Despite the rainy day, many celebrities, moneyed from all over and just some rather oddly-dressed people showed up. I saw Graydon Carter, editor of Vanity Fair.
I realized that I had been walking seven nonstop hours by the end and it felt like a marathon. Well, I did stop for a few educational short conversations with vendors. My motto is to "fight ignorance".
As I kept hearing, "that's life!" Going to the Show is a great way to learn more about life, and the way people with money and collecting interests have lived.
Security was excellent but cab-finders outside were not available. I was turned away by twelve cabs before one would take me away! Except for the rain, I would have driven there as I usually do. Hope that is better for you. Sunday will bring sun.
There is an article in the New York Times today about how conspicuous consumption is again appearing unfashionable, but that is another story. It would be interesting to know if customers were buying more than other years or less today at the Show, but prices were definitely being negotiated.
http://www.stellashows.com/cgi-bin/texis/scripts/showpromo_info/stellashowdetail.html?idnum=ZJD1463&showabb=triplepier20021109
Friday, November 14, 2008
It's better to be out of the market wanting to get in than the opposite
NEW YORK (MarketWatch) --
Of all the hard asset-oriented letters, Mary Anne and Pamela Aden's Aden Forecast has been perhaps the most disciplined at riding the major trend while remaining alert to short-term counter-trends.
The top-performing hard asset letter says the crisis is abating. But it's still jumpy.
...[They say]"Market research is an art. It provides you with information which gives a good indication of major trends, tendencies, which investments will do well, probable scenarios, how to invest accordingly and so on. But it doesn't anticipate the magnitude and speed of an excessive market drop prior to the fact. Research increases the advantage of being in the right markets at the right times, but it's not foolproof."
This happens with commodities especially, and the fall is surprisingly stealthy and quick. Dramatic, yes, and alarmingly sharp.
href="http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/Aden-sisters-still-jumpy/story.aspx?guid=%7B458AB987%2D23B1%2D48F9%2DA88E%2D85DA03315606%7D">http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/Aden-sisters-still-jumpy/story.aspx?guid=%7B458AB987%2D23B1%2D48F9%2DA88E%2D85DA03315606%7D
Of all the hard asset-oriented letters, Mary Anne and Pamela Aden's Aden Forecast has been perhaps the most disciplined at riding the major trend while remaining alert to short-term counter-trends.
The top-performing hard asset letter says the crisis is abating. But it's still jumpy.
...[They say]"Market research is an art. It provides you with information which gives a good indication of major trends, tendencies, which investments will do well, probable scenarios, how to invest accordingly and so on. But it doesn't anticipate the magnitude and speed of an excessive market drop prior to the fact. Research increases the advantage of being in the right markets at the right times, but it's not foolproof."
This happens with commodities especially, and the fall is surprisingly stealthy and quick. Dramatic, yes, and alarmingly sharp.
href="http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/Aden-sisters-still-jumpy/story.aspx?guid=%7B458AB987%2D23B1%2D48F9%2DA88E%2D85DA03315606%7D">http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/Aden-sisters-still-jumpy/story.aspx?guid=%7B458AB987%2D23B1%2D48F9%2DA88E%2D85DA03315606%7D
Thursday, November 13, 2008
Hedgies Have Their Day
Thanks to CNBC, here is a wonderful chart of a summary of the testimony of hedge fund managers today:
Highlights From Hedge Fund Hearing
George Soros:— Crisis Was Generated By Financial System Itself
— Financial System Pricing Somewhat Distorted In Proportion To Actual Problem— Regulators Must Accept Responsibility For Controlling Asset Bubbles
— Controlling Credit Means Using Regulations That Have Fallen Into Disuse
— Financial Market Reforms Must Be International In Scope— Basel Accords Need To Be Replaced By New Rules Reflecting New Paradigm
— Hedge Funds Need To Be Regulated Within New Framework
— Underregulation Helped Cause Current Problem, But Overregulation A Danger As Well
— Hedge Funds Helped Cause Bubble, But Have Been Devastated By Its Bursting
James Simons:
— Rating Agencies Are Among The Most Culpable For Current Problems
— Hedge Funds Were Not A Major Cause of Current Systemic Risk
— Additional Regulation Focused On Market Integrity Would Be Appropriate
— Most Important Step We Can Take Is To Keep People In Their Homes
— More Transparency From Hedge Funds Could Be Helpful
— Any Change In Tax Policy Should Be Applied Equally To All
— PIMCO, Others Should Sponsor A New Derivatives Rating Agency
Philip Falcone:
— Hedge Funds Have Positive Role In Financial Markets
— Compensation In Hedge Fund Business Is Performance Based
— Short Selling Is A Valuable Long Standing Feature of our Markets
— Our Analysts Perform Thorough Due Diligence, Not Relying On Rating Agencies
Kenneth Griffin:
— Champions The Idea of Building Clearinghouse For Credit Default Swaps
— Proper Regulation Is Key To Health Of Financial Markets
— Congress, Regulators, Industry Must All Work Together
— We Must Not Stifle Best Innovative Qualities Of Our Financial Markets
Did they have to testify? All of them clearly had time to prepare the statements they read. Major news outlets are saying that they were "called to testify" before a House committee.
James Simon politely thanked the House for the opportunity to offer comments. He made my favorite quote:
There is much blame to be shared: the SEC and perhaps the Federal Reserve for taking such a hands-off position on the leverage posture of the investment banks and the uncontrolled nature of the CDS market; the players all along the chain of creation and distribution of the paper, each of whom should have blown a whistle rather than passing the problem on to the next guy; and finally, and in my opinion the most culpable, the rating agencies, which failed in their duty and allowed sows' ears to be sold as silk purses.
http://www.cnbc.com/id/27699730
Highlights From Hedge Fund Hearing
George Soros:— Crisis Was Generated By Financial System Itself
— Financial System Pricing Somewhat Distorted In Proportion To Actual Problem— Regulators Must Accept Responsibility For Controlling Asset Bubbles
— Controlling Credit Means Using Regulations That Have Fallen Into Disuse
— Financial Market Reforms Must Be International In Scope— Basel Accords Need To Be Replaced By New Rules Reflecting New Paradigm
— Hedge Funds Need To Be Regulated Within New Framework
— Underregulation Helped Cause Current Problem, But Overregulation A Danger As Well
— Hedge Funds Helped Cause Bubble, But Have Been Devastated By Its Bursting
James Simons:
— Rating Agencies Are Among The Most Culpable For Current Problems
— Hedge Funds Were Not A Major Cause of Current Systemic Risk
— Additional Regulation Focused On Market Integrity Would Be Appropriate
— Most Important Step We Can Take Is To Keep People In Their Homes
— More Transparency From Hedge Funds Could Be Helpful
— Any Change In Tax Policy Should Be Applied Equally To All
— PIMCO, Others Should Sponsor A New Derivatives Rating Agency
Philip Falcone:
— Hedge Funds Have Positive Role In Financial Markets
— Compensation In Hedge Fund Business Is Performance Based
— Short Selling Is A Valuable Long Standing Feature of our Markets
— Our Analysts Perform Thorough Due Diligence, Not Relying On Rating Agencies
Kenneth Griffin:
— Champions The Idea of Building Clearinghouse For Credit Default Swaps
— Proper Regulation Is Key To Health Of Financial Markets
— Congress, Regulators, Industry Must All Work Together
— We Must Not Stifle Best Innovative Qualities Of Our Financial Markets
Did they have to testify? All of them clearly had time to prepare the statements they read. Major news outlets are saying that they were "called to testify" before a House committee.
James Simon politely thanked the House for the opportunity to offer comments. He made my favorite quote:
There is much blame to be shared: the SEC and perhaps the Federal Reserve for taking such a hands-off position on the leverage posture of the investment banks and the uncontrolled nature of the CDS market; the players all along the chain of creation and distribution of the paper, each of whom should have blown a whistle rather than passing the problem on to the next guy; and finally, and in my opinion the most culpable, the rating agencies, which failed in their duty and allowed sows' ears to be sold as silk purses.
http://www.cnbc.com/id/27699730
Said Eve to Adam: Your Senses, How They Sparkle, and My, What Huge Drive You Have!
“I think one of the significant issues of this business that we are all struggling with is that there is an inverse correlation between compensation and drive,” said Mark W. Yusko, president of Morgan Creek Capital Management, an investment advisory firm. “In many cases the incredible wealth that is created by this incentive compensation structure has a propensity to dull the senses and dull the drive.”
Okay, now I really get it. Instead of feeling a twinge of envy for the disproportionately large compensation of hedge fund managers, it's an opportunity to revel in our sparkling senses and overabundance of drive.
http://www.nytimes.com/2007/04/24/business/24hedge.html
Okay, now I really get it. Instead of feeling a twinge of envy for the disproportionately large compensation of hedge fund managers, it's an opportunity to revel in our sparkling senses and overabundance of drive.
http://www.nytimes.com/2007/04/24/business/24hedge.html
"Now is a time when doing nothing is doing something"
A good day in the stock market:
Dow
8,835.25\+552.59\(6.67%)
S&P 500
911.29 \ +58.99 \(6.92%)
Nasdaq
1,596.70 \ +97.49 \(6.50%)
It makes me wonder when commentators on CNBC ask whether or not a stock is cheap. Cheap? Cheap? Prices today would have been considered inconceivable a year ago, unthinkable. Imagine the conversation a year ago asking if today's below bottom prices are cheap. Impossible, right?
Of course, we can hope for a big huge gap up in the averages. But if anything great happens, most say it likely won't happen until February or March, if then.
I do wish, by the way, for more use of the Global Dow Index as a benchmark. I will use it sometimes, but for today, I will say that there was a 911-point intraday range in the Dow.
Today, Larry Kudlow on CNBC based the theme of his show on the Dow, asking whether it has finally hit bottom.
Also on CNBC, Maria Bartiromo asked Richard D. Parsons, friend of President-Elect Obama, Chairman of Time Warner and Director of Citigroup to give a market outlook. He said that the trading today is technical, and that the market will descend for the next year or two.
This idea echoed again on CNBC by Daniel Frishberg of LafferFrishberg.com, who said that there might be a rally. He likened the stock market to a beach ball that has been held under water and will pop up but, like a beach ball, will then fall back down again. He says that P/E ratios have historically stayed lower than they are now, so they could go lower.
He also said that cash has now made 20% more than any other investment, so that "now is a time when doing nothing is doing something".
Dow
8,835.25\+552.59\(6.67%)
S&P 500
911.29 \ +58.99 \(6.92%)
Nasdaq
1,596.70 \ +97.49 \(6.50%)
It makes me wonder when commentators on CNBC ask whether or not a stock is cheap. Cheap? Cheap? Prices today would have been considered inconceivable a year ago, unthinkable. Imagine the conversation a year ago asking if today's below bottom prices are cheap. Impossible, right?
Of course, we can hope for a big huge gap up in the averages. But if anything great happens, most say it likely won't happen until February or March, if then.
I do wish, by the way, for more use of the Global Dow Index as a benchmark. I will use it sometimes, but for today, I will say that there was a 911-point intraday range in the Dow.
Today, Larry Kudlow on CNBC based the theme of his show on the Dow, asking whether it has finally hit bottom.
Also on CNBC, Maria Bartiromo asked Richard D. Parsons, friend of President-Elect Obama, Chairman of Time Warner and Director of Citigroup to give a market outlook. He said that the trading today is technical, and that the market will descend for the next year or two.
This idea echoed again on CNBC by Daniel Frishberg of LafferFrishberg.com, who said that there might be a rally. He likened the stock market to a beach ball that has been held under water and will pop up but, like a beach ball, will then fall back down again. He says that P/E ratios have historically stayed lower than they are now, so they could go lower.
He also said that cash has now made 20% more than any other investment, so that "now is a time when doing nothing is doing something".
Wednesday, November 12, 2008
Paulson says US bail-out is working (excerpt)
The $700bn (£494bn) US bail-out package has already "clearly helped stabilise" the financial system, US Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson has said.
...Mr Paulson's comments did little to ease continuing investor jitters, and Wall Street's main Dow Jones index ended Wednesday trading in New York down 4.7%.*
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/business/7724325.stm
...Mr Paulson's comments did little to ease continuing investor jitters, and Wall Street's main Dow Jones index ended Wednesday trading in New York down 4.7%.*
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/business/7724325.stm
| 8,282.66 | -411.30 | (-4.73%) | |
| 852.30 | -46.65 | (-5.19%) | |
| 1,499.21 | -81.69 | (-5.17%) | |
What Is It Like to Lose $100 Million a Day? WSJ excerpt
"A graphic in Vanity Fair last month showing the biggest stock-market losers had Warren Buffett down about $16 billion. The Walton kids were down a combined $21 billion. The Google guys were each down about $12 billion, as was Bill Gates. (Overseas, there are some even more impressive, er, losers, such as Lakshmi Mittal racking up more than 20 billion pounds in paper losses...)."*
*The Wall Street Journal
Have to feel sorry for the likes of Sheldon Adelson.
"His investments have declined by more than $30 billion, yes with a “b,” in the past year.
Getty Images
http://blogs.wsj.com/wealth/2008/11/12/what-is-it-like-to-lose-100-million-a-day/
*The Wall Street Journal
Have to feel sorry for the likes of Sheldon Adelson.
"His investments have declined by more than $30 billion, yes with a “b,” in the past year.
Getty ImagesPut another way, his net worth declined by about $100 million a day, or $4.1 million an hour, or $69,000 a minute, or $1,157 a second.
It is possible Mr. Adelson now may hold the title for the largest one-year paper loss in U.S. history."
http://blogs.wsj.com/wealth/2008/11/12/what-is-it-like-to-lose-100-million-a-day/
An introduction to the Global Dow Index
NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- The Global Dow launched on Tuesday -- the first addition to the Dow Jones Averages family of indexes in 75 years.
Like its famous progenitor, the Dow Jones Industrial Average stocks in The Global Dow are selected by senior editors of The Wall Street Journal. Joining them for this new index were Dow Jones Newswires senior editors in the three major regions of the globe.
The Global Dow (GDOW 1,418.45, -12.82, -0.9%) is much bigger -- 150 stocks rather than 30 -- and its components are weighted equally rather than by price. *
http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/New-global-index-takes-pulse/story.aspx?guid=%7BC57CB27C%2D177A%2D4491%2D84DF%2D19AC8C3A195B%7D
Here is a link to the official press release:
http://www.globenewswire.com/newsroom/news.html?d=154421
Here is a video of the announcement:
In my view, it should gain more press attention.
And now for the acid test, the All Data chart, which shows the impressive upswing 2003-2008, and the last unbelievable, shocking few months, a "once-in-a-lifetime" event. Yes, definitely enough for a lifetime.
The Global Dow (GDOW 1,418.45, -12.82, -0.9%) is much bigger -- 150 stocks rather than 30 -- and its components are weighted equally rather than by price. *
http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/New-global-index-takes-pulse/story.aspx?guid=%7BC57CB27C%2D177A%2D4491%2D84DF%2D19AC8C3A195B%7D
...The largest three components by float-adjusted market capitalization in the Global Dow are Exxon Mobil Corp., Procter & Gamble Co. and General Electric Co. The smallest are General Motors Corp., Renewable Energy Corp. ASA (Norway), and Suntech Power Holdings Co. (China).
As of the close on Monday, the Global Dow is down 44.22% for the year to date. The index's performance will be listed each day in the Markets Lineup chart package, on page C4.
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB122644452817118779.htmlHere is a link to the official press release:
http://www.globenewswire.com/newsroom/news.html?d=154421
Here is a video of the announcement:
In my view, it should gain more press attention.
And now for the acid test, the All Data chart, which shows the impressive upswing 2003-2008, and the last unbelievable, shocking few months, a "once-in-a-lifetime" event. Yes, definitely enough for a lifetime.
 |
How to achieve family harmony
Today I saw an interview of Michael J. Fox on the Rachael Ray Show. Rachael asked him the key to happiness and harmony in marriage and he said that (someone told him) "if a lady 'says' something then she is going to be right". I realized as he said it that he touched a sensitive nerve.
If she says something emphatically, that she feels strongly about, then her husband should try if at all possible to just let it go. Even if he does not agree, he has to laugh. Even if the whole family knows she's probably wrong, the best thing to do is to just relax and pick another battle. Just publicly agree. (The entire family might even privately agree she's wrong, too, don't worry!).
She needs to save face and appear to have some power, too, and this is her big chance to gain the support and approval that feels to her like love. That is how a woman feels, and with her good graces, how a family achieves harmony.
Besides, she might just be right.
If she says something emphatically, that she feels strongly about, then her husband should try if at all possible to just let it go. Even if he does not agree, he has to laugh. Even if the whole family knows she's probably wrong, the best thing to do is to just relax and pick another battle. Just publicly agree. (The entire family might even privately agree she's wrong, too, don't worry!).
She needs to save face and appear to have some power, too, and this is her big chance to gain the support and approval that feels to her like love. That is how a woman feels, and with her good graces, how a family achieves harmony.
Besides, she might just be right.
My question-of-the-day
Are there precedents in American history of someone with similar credentials and education to Sarah Palin who has ever gone on to win a Presidential election?
Obviously, a Presidential front-runner has not been:
1) a woman
2) a mother of young kids
3) a governor of a state who is a woman
4) wife of a fisherman
5) wife of an Eskimo
6) special-needs-kid mom
7) hockey-mom
8) in such public need of hair and clothes upgrades for her and her family.
9) with a bachelor's degree in journalism (verification, please)
10) self-professed "expert" in oil and oil exploration (see vice-presidential debate)
11) an aggressive hunter and consumer of defenseless wildlife
12) a honey of the National Rifle Association. Do they care about the high national murder rate and how to change it?
She is evidently not over-educated and definitely not well-traveled in preparation for a national run. When is she going to travel internationally enough to broaden her sharp attitudes? And I had heard that New Jerseyans are known for 'picking up "attitudes." '
Is her aggression going to win anything more for her? I hope not.
When will she learn that the diverse genealogical composition of the people inside America who are already living here is an all-encompassing benefit?
She is clearly an aggressive, assertive and argumentative woman, who had the least credentials of any recent female candidates to have gotten almost as high as she has. She is definitely riding along the road paved by Hilary Clinton.
I could go on and on. But I am just blogging.
Wonder if she has ever used a computer? Haven't noticed any sign of that at all. She is unlikely to read this.
President-elect Obama has amazing and exciting computer initiatives planned that could revolutionize the access of Americans to computers through national broadband access. There are plans for a Cabinet level appointment of a Chief Technology Officer with mandates to keep the internet open and improve it while safeguarding privacy.
Even math and science research will be encouraged by the new Administration.
Obviously, a Presidential front-runner has not been:
1) a woman
2) a mother of young kids
3) a governor of a state who is a woman
4) wife of a fisherman
5) wife of an Eskimo
6) special-needs-kid mom
7) hockey-mom
8) in such public need of hair and clothes upgrades for her and her family.
9) with a bachelor's degree in journalism (verification, please)
10) self-professed "expert" in oil and oil exploration (see vice-presidential debate)
11) an aggressive hunter and consumer of defenseless wildlife
12) a honey of the National Rifle Association. Do they care about the high national murder rate and how to change it?
She is evidently not over-educated and definitely not well-traveled in preparation for a national run. When is she going to travel internationally enough to broaden her sharp attitudes? And I had heard that New Jerseyans are known for 'picking up "attitudes." '
Is her aggression going to win anything more for her? I hope not.
When will she learn that the diverse genealogical composition of the people inside America who are already living here is an all-encompassing benefit?
She is clearly an aggressive, assertive and argumentative woman, who had the least credentials of any recent female candidates to have gotten almost as high as she has. She is definitely riding along the road paved by Hilary Clinton.
I could go on and on. But I am just blogging.
Wonder if she has ever used a computer? Haven't noticed any sign of that at all. She is unlikely to read this.
President-elect Obama has amazing and exciting computer initiatives planned that could revolutionize the access of Americans to computers through national broadband access. There are plans for a Cabinet level appointment of a Chief Technology Officer with mandates to keep the internet open and improve it while safeguarding privacy.
Even math and science research will be encouraged by the new Administration.
Tuesday, November 11, 2008
Trying to find bright spots in the market
Here's one dramatic cosmetic change:
On November 7, 2008 Royal Bank of Scotland Group plc (RBS) completed a reverse split in the ratio of 20:1 of its ADR shares traded in New York.
http://seekingalpha.com/article/105148-will-royal-bank-of-scotland-s-reverse-split-help-its-share-price?source=yahoo
Seriously, I noticed at the bottom of the Finviz.com website, which I have recommended before, there is a line of stocks toward the bottom that channeled up today, such as
They look interesting. These stocks are good for keeping an eye on, but I am not recommending leaping before looking. Then there are some more trending up, and the first looks quite good:
This company looks compelling and I saw the CEO interviewed a few weeks ago. They make nuts, snacks, popcorn brands that are already familiar in supermarkets and are evidently thriving. Their website says they are the largest exporter of walnuts from California to Europe and Asia.
Here is an interview courtesy Bloomberg television with CEO Michael Mendes about his desire to expand into the baking product, snack and produce area.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ex8KxRj2GR4
| Chart: daily technical | |
  | |
| |
| RBS [NYSE] |
| Royal Bank of Scotland Group plc |
| Financial - Foreign Money Center Banks - United Kingdom |
On November 7, 2008 Royal Bank of Scotland Group plc (RBS) completed a reverse split in the ratio of 20:1 of its ADR shares traded in New York.
This reverse split was first announced on Oct 30,2008 (Source: RBS Investor Relations Site):
...Only time will tell if the reverse split will be successful or not in the long runhttp://seekingalpha.com/article/105148-will-royal-bank-of-scotland-s-reverse-split-help-its-share-price?source=yahoo
Seriously, I noticed at the bottom of the Finviz.com website, which I have recommended before, there is a line of stocks toward the bottom that channeled up today, such as
| |||||
| |||||
|
They look interesting. These stocks are good for keeping an eye on, but I am not recommending leaping before looking. Then there are some more trending up, and the first looks quite good:
| DMND [NASD] |
| Diamond Foods, Inc. |
| Consumer Goods - Processed & Packaged Goods - USA |
Here is an interview courtesy Bloomberg television with CEO Michael Mendes about his desire to expand into the baking product, snack and produce area.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ex8KxRj2GR4
Monday, November 10, 2008
What Crisis? Some Hedge Funds Gain - by Louise Story (excerpts)
There is an article in Monday's New York Times about hedge funds that have increased their returns this year. (Excerpts are in italics, boldface mine).
How did he do it? Mr. Drury, a former grain trader, is not giving away his secrets. He relies on proprietary computer models to chart tides in the markets and to ride the prevailing currents...
This secretiveness could indicate the success of different strategies:
1) One would have been to sell early on in the year (yes, well) while ahead, and buy T-bills.
2) Or why not short stocks? (Mm-hmm). Some short funds are up substantially for the year (please see the chart below from Barchart.com), but it is not the best permanent strategy for buying stocks if a goal of investing is to help companies raise cash to increase their business. While these funds might be up because of savvy shorting, they could get caught on a strong upwind - just as most were caught on the downdraft.
...another big wave of withdrawals in mid-November could further unsettle the markets....Hedge fund returns, on average, are down 20 percent. But one in every 50 funds is up more than 30 percent — an astonishing performance, considering the broad stock market is down even more than that...
Betting against the subprime mortgage market helped, of course. (A lot!)
These traders sit at desks and their computers watching numbers go up and down. That is what they do all day. That is most all they do at the office, too. That's how they get the experience to trade on hunches.
...A showing that would have been considered dismal only a year ago is now viewed as a standout success. Traders even joke that down 10 percent is the new break-even. Actually making money is all the more rare.
...Exis Capital, a $150 million fund that trades stocks, is up 9 percent this year, even after the fund’s manager took their 50 percent fee, according to investors....
...In commodities trading, Touradji Capital Management is up 11 percent
...Trafalgar, a hedge fund in London, manages 10 funds. Three are down, but two — a volatility fund, and “special situations” fund — are up more than 20 percent, according to an investor. Trafalgar declined to say what special situations it had pounced on. Volatility funds, a category that is broadly doing well, focus on trading options and try to profit when the markets swing wildly as they have lately....
...(Marek) Fludzinski, the chief executive of Thales Fund Management, was among the computer-loving quantitative fund managers who suffered in 2007, when his fund lost 8 percent. Investors immediately began asking for their money back, so Mr. Fludzinski shut the $1.6 billion fund and started anew. Now his computer-driven fund, created in May, has grown to $350 million from $80 million in assets and is up 14 percent.
...Marc H. Malek, a former UBS trader who manages $611 million, is up 44 percent in his macro fund....
...Roy Niederhoffer, founder of R. G. Niederhoffer Capital Management, whose more famous brother, Victor, made and then lost a fortune trading, is up more than 50 percent.
It wouldn't be prudent not to end with a reminder that only one in three hedge funds are up this year. Most hedge funds are off, with history-making lows.
...This year, some 70 percent of hedge funds had lost money from Jan. 1 through the end of September...(but what about October, when most of the damage happened?)
"One good year can vault a small player to the big leagues." Hope springs eternal.
Sounds more hopeful than Nouriel Roubini on CNBC today who said that the markets will still fall another 20-30% and that America will forever into the future be beholden to China and India. He also sees unemployment rising dramatically ahead.
Tim Knight on his blog, SlopeofHope.com wrote yesterday that this downturn is unlike anything in the charts he has seen, the Great Depression, 1987, 2001, etc. He says that there just isn't anything in his charts that compares.
Rhonda Schaffler on Bloomberg TV this morning said that this is different than other downturns because it involves all of the markets, the stock, bond, commodity markets and housing and all are falling in price.
There just isn't anywhere to hide, is what I keep hearing. Super gloom all around and hardly anyone is buying stocks yet!
Maybe the Green initiative with emphasis on fossil fuels and alternative energy will lift us out of this miry economic bog, or so said James Galbraith, an economist at the U of Texas, and son of Canadian Nobel prize winning economist, J.K. Galbraith, on NPR this morning. Sustainability! We should think Green.
Jim Cramer mentioned PPG, a glassmaker, on CNBC today as a play on this theme and China. (Must be hard to do his show when his stock picks keep falling! But whatever, who knows? He makes a good case.)
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/11/10/business/economy/10hedge.html?hp
Here is a chart from Barchart.com with top open mutual funds year-to-date. All are short funds:
Bernard V. Drury is a rarity on Wall Street: a hedge fund manager who is making money rather than losing it.
Aaron Houston for The New York Times.
A hedge fund operated by Bernard V. Drury, of Drury Capital, has risen 60 percent since Jan. 1.
While most hedge funds are sinking into red this year and unsettling the markets in the process, a handful of them are posting spectacular gains. Mr. Drury’s fund, for instance, is up 60 percent since Jan. 1.
How did he do it? Mr. Drury, a former grain trader, is not giving away his secrets. He relies on proprietary computer models to chart tides in the markets and to ride the prevailing currents...
This secretiveness could indicate the success of different strategies:
1) One would have been to sell early on in the year (yes, well) while ahead, and buy T-bills.
2) Or why not short stocks? (Mm-hmm). Some short funds are up substantially for the year (please see the chart below from Barchart.com), but it is not the best permanent strategy for buying stocks if a goal of investing is to help companies raise cash to increase their business. While these funds might be up because of savvy shorting, they could get caught on a strong upwind - just as most were caught on the downdraft.
...another big wave of withdrawals in mid-November could further unsettle the markets....Hedge fund returns, on average, are down 20 percent. But one in every 50 funds is up more than 30 percent — an astonishing performance, considering the broad stock market is down even more than that...
Winners include trend-followers like Mr. Drury; market-spanning macro funds, which dart in and out of an array of markets and bet on everything from Apple Inc. to zinc; and niche players that are buying insurance policies or making loans to small companies.
Some of this year’s stars are familiar names on Wall Street. For instance, a fund managed by John Paulson, who reportedly was paid $3.7 billion in 2007 after betting against the subprime mortgage market, has gained nearly 30 percent this year in his largest fund, investors say.
Betting against the subprime mortgage market helped, of course. (A lot!)
These traders sit at desks and their computers watching numbers go up and down. That is what they do all day. That is most all they do at the office, too. That's how they get the experience to trade on hunches.
...A showing that would have been considered dismal only a year ago is now viewed as a standout success. Traders even joke that down 10 percent is the new break-even. Actually making money is all the more rare.
“This year, anything north of 10 percent is spectacular,” said Pierre Villeneuve, managing director of the Mapleridge Capital Corporation, a $750 million hedge fund in Canada that is up 18 percent.
Other funds with big winnings include R. G. Niederhoffer Capital Management; Conquest Capital Group; MKP Capital Management; the Tulip Trend Fund, run by Progressive Capital; and funds run by John W. Henry & Company.......Exis Capital, a $150 million fund that trades stocks, is up 9 percent this year, even after the fund’s manager took their 50 percent fee, according to investors....
...In commodities trading, Touradji Capital Management is up 11 percent
...Trafalgar, a hedge fund in London, manages 10 funds. Three are down, but two — a volatility fund, and “special situations” fund — are up more than 20 percent, according to an investor. Trafalgar declined to say what special situations it had pounced on. Volatility funds, a category that is broadly doing well, focus on trading options and try to profit when the markets swing wildly as they have lately....
...(Marek) Fludzinski, the chief executive of Thales Fund Management, was among the computer-loving quantitative fund managers who suffered in 2007, when his fund lost 8 percent. Investors immediately began asking for their money back, so Mr. Fludzinski shut the $1.6 billion fund and started anew. Now his computer-driven fund, created in May, has grown to $350 million from $80 million in assets and is up 14 percent.
...Marc H. Malek, a former UBS trader who manages $611 million, is up 44 percent in his macro fund....
...Roy Niederhoffer, founder of R. G. Niederhoffer Capital Management, whose more famous brother, Victor, made and then lost a fortune trading, is up more than 50 percent.
It wouldn't be prudent not to end with a reminder that only one in three hedge funds are up this year. Most hedge funds are off, with history-making lows.
...This year, some 70 percent of hedge funds had lost money from Jan. 1 through the end of September...(but what about October, when most of the damage happened?)
"One good year can vault a small player to the big leagues." Hope springs eternal.
Sounds more hopeful than Nouriel Roubini on CNBC today who said that the markets will still fall another 20-30% and that America will forever into the future be beholden to China and India. He also sees unemployment rising dramatically ahead.
Tim Knight on his blog, SlopeofHope.com wrote yesterday that this downturn is unlike anything in the charts he has seen, the Great Depression, 1987, 2001, etc. He says that there just isn't anything in his charts that compares.
Rhonda Schaffler on Bloomberg TV this morning said that this is different than other downturns because it involves all of the markets, the stock, bond, commodity markets and housing and all are falling in price.
There just isn't anywhere to hide, is what I keep hearing. Super gloom all around and hardly anyone is buying stocks yet!
Maybe the Green initiative with emphasis on fossil fuels and alternative energy will lift us out of this miry economic bog, or so said James Galbraith, an economist at the U of Texas, and son of Canadian Nobel prize winning economist, J.K. Galbraith, on NPR this morning. Sustainability! We should think Green.
Jim Cramer mentioned PPG, a glassmaker, on CNBC today as a play on this theme and China. (Must be hard to do his show when his stock picks keep falling! But whatever, who knows? He makes a good case.)
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/11/10/business/economy/10hedge.html?hp
Here is a chart from Barchart.com with top open mutual funds year-to-date. All are short funds:
| |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)