An alarming statistic and ranking results

Violations Reported at 94% of Nursing Homes

About two-thirds of nursing homes are owned by for-profit companies, while 27 percent are owned by nonprofit organizations and 6 percent by government entities, the report said.

The inspector general said 94 percent of for-profit nursing homes were cited for deficiencies last year, compared with 88 percent of nonprofit homes and 91 percent of government homes.

...In December, the Bush administration plans to begin using a five-star system to describe the overall quality of care. The best homes will get five stars. The rankings will be published on a federal Web site.*

New York Times, Sept 29, 2008

Americans persist in saying that they have "the best health-care system in the world". It is certainly the most expensive. (Where is there another more expensive system?) Most international studies repeat that it is not "the best". In a Disney-esque way, I can say that there is a happy ending. We should hear more results about federal health and safety standards in American nursing homes December when the federal government publishes a five-star ranking system. But is this a "happy ending"?

It is important for nursing home shoppers to note that for-profit nursing homes had more deficiencies than nonprofit homes! Should be an interesting result, if they measure wide-ranging issues, such as medication mix-ups, poor nutrition, and abuse and neglect of patients.

Americans do love to lead the world with measuring tests: driver's licenses (before you drive over someone), auto inspections (to tell you whether your car needs fixing), house (occupancy worthy) and restaurant inspections, private school entry tests(SSAT), university entry tests(SAT), and exams and rankings of public school teachers, universities and graduate schools, professional schools and memberships, and so on.

There is huge interest in testing others here that has created lots of employment in probably the most competitive society anywhere. America has institutionalized testing. But I do not believe that the rankings are always correct and accurate. Testing does not always reflect true learning and knowledge. At the same time, what better measures do we have?

Sometimes a lighter system of measure, or frequent lighter testing, rather than heavy one-time testing and certification, like using honey to attract flies, is more encouraging and over time promotes superior results. For example, shopping venues have varying levels of service and price where your expectations are set from the moment of entry. That is fine.

This ranking of nursing homes could improve them by rating them like hotels and restaurants (which can improve if monitored and tested). This improvement, keeping an eye on the results, lies at the heart of the benefits of testing, as well as publicizing the results to help consumer end users make better choices and decisions. But at worst, rankings, generally, can destroy jobs and careers unnecessarily and unfairly.

Thoughtfulness and experience must balance and sometimes overthrow ranking results that prove to be erroneous, inaccurate, unsuitable and questionably motivated.

Hakuna Matata

From today's New York Times:

Greenwich Time

Op-Ed Contributor

By TOM WOLFE

Published: September 27, 2008

...the Masters of the Universe are smarter than the people they left behind at the investment banks. Their hedge funds have blown up here and there, but unlike the investment banks, they are still very much in business. They have hurriedly pulled themselves into defensive positions inside their shells, like turtles. Their Armageddon, if any, will not come for two more days, which is to say, Tuesday, Sept. 30.

Most hedge funds open up a crack on Sept. 30, Dec. 31, March 31 and June 30 to give investors the chance to “redeem” their investments, meaning take their money out. These moments are called gates, like a series of gates in a prison. The gate is the limit, the fixed percentage of your money, that the fund will allow you to take out at one time. Even with these strict caps on withdrawals, some funds may end up nothing but shells.

Shed no tears for the Masters of the Universe, however, not that your correspondent actually thought you might. Most of the young Masters already have their own personal nut free and clear. “Nut” is the term for the amount of money you need salted away in weather-proof investments in order to generate enough interest to live comfortably in Greenwich on Round Hill Road, Pecksland Road or Field Point Road in a house built before the First World War in an enchanting European style, preferably made of stone featuring the odd turret, with a minimum of five acres around it and big enough to be called a manor. Every Master of the Universe knows the number.

Tom Wolfe, the author of “The Bonfire of the Vanities,” is at work on a novel about immigration in Miami.

Fallen Tycoon to Auction Prized Works*

Lehman's Fuld and Wife Consign Millions in Postwar Art to Christie's for November Sale

• It could also evoke the plight of its owners, Richard Fuld Jr. -- chairman and chief executive of Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc., the bankrupt holding company -- and his wife, Kathy, a well-known collector of modern art.

Christie's

Study for Agony I: Arshile Gorky (1904-48). This work, estimated to sell for up to $2.8 million, is a preparatory sketch for a painting now in New York's Museum of Modern Art.

The Gorky drawing is part of a group of 16 postwar drawings owned by the Fulds that were quietly put up for sale by Christie's last month, according to people familiar with the situation. The sketches were consigned in early August following a competitive bidding process between Christie's and Sotheby's. Christie's wouldn't confirm the identity of the seller but says the total presale estimate of the works is between $15 million and $20 million. The auction house also confirmed the deal included a guarantee, an undisclosed sum promised to the seller whether or not the works sell.....

Mr. Fuld and his wife still have a sizable art collection and a primary residence in Greenwich, Conn., featuring an indoor squash court. They also own a $21 million Park Avenue co-op, a home in Vermont and another one in Sun Valley, Idaho. In addition, Mr. Fuld in 2004 paid $13.75 million for an oceanfront house in Jupiter Island, Fla. He has since rebuilt the home.

Mr. Fuld isn't the only Lehman executive out selling assets. Former Lehman President Joe Gregory has his $32.5 million home in New York's Hamptons area up for sale and recently had his home in Manchester, Vt., up for sale. That listing has been withdrawn.*

* The Wall Street Journal

Hope Legislation Passes in a Timely Fashion

Bernanke Reiterates Need to Act Quickly

Doesn't this headline at the top of "The Wall Street Journal" sum it all up?

Yesterday, watching the Treaury Secretary, Henry "Hank" Paulson, and the Chairman of the Federal Reserve Board, Ben Bernanke, attempt to face a grilling from lawmakers on CNBC, I felt so sorry for them.

Their questioners were doubting their credentials to be doing this. But what were the credentials of the lawmakers to be questioning them except that they have passed popularity contests with the American voters? Since the lawmakers have to pass popularity more importantly than educational contests, why should they be the judges of economic experts?

Paulson and Bernanke are noble men doing what they can to help their country, and they are being publicly abused for creating solutions that their abusers cannot begin to understand, let alone fashion. These appointees (appointed for their expertise and cooperative skills) don't need or deserve this abuse. They would quit in exasperation and impatience if they were not such responsible men. Let's hope they can get this important effort completed with their health intact, and that they do it well, for future generations.

Paulson, especially appeared to be very sleep-deprived and nervous, and was instantly expected to answer with conversational solutions some difficult computer-dependent problems. Big problems take a lot of time to solve, if they can prove to be solved at all by people. If these two individuals had been harder scientists, they would not be there.

These are very friendly, cooperative, knowledgeable men, and all of their precious intellect and energies and time were being spent, wasted, on this hearing. If executive salary and other positions are going to be bundled onto this legislation, the whole American economy could collapse while legislation takes ages to pass.

Weekly Markets Summary

Dow 11388.44 368.75 3.35% Nasdaq 2273.90 74.80 3.40% S&P 500 1255.08 48.57 4.03% 10-yr Note* 3.811 -2 3/32 -2.02% Source: Dow Jones, Reuters

The huge up move of the stock market today, while heartening and probably temporary, is in the direction most in the market would prefer, as the numbers above show. The volatility that went with it is another story.

Each weekend, I peruse Barron's magazine. Specifically, I dive into the market lab pages and copy certain mutual fund results and then get busy with my markers and pens.....I was very curious after all the whipsaw market actions of the past week to find out exactly which funds would come out ahead in the mutual fund charts.

Of course, I keep checking this all week long. The end of the week is an arbitrary cut-off day, especially in these days when what happened this week would probably have taken months or longer pre-electronic trading. The 600,000+ volume of shares in the Nasdaq market handled the first few minutes Friday was more than the total number generally sustained in a day until the late nineties.

The funds up the most this week would not have satisfied anyone in years past. For example, Fidelity's Home Finance Select Fund (FSVLX) that is up 10% this week is down -38.6% year-to-date (YTD) and also down an amazing -55.8 percent cumulatively over the last three years!

In general, it seems nearly all mutual funds are down since the beginning of the year, with the exceptions of tax-related ones which are up slightly. I would have added, "of course", until the unprecedented actions of the last few weeks that temporarily appeared to destabilize the money-market and bond markets.

Most other funds are negative YTD in shocking numbers. For example, Fidelity's Latin America Fund (FLATX) that did spectacularly well the last three years until mid-May, hitting over +225% cumulatively, is down to +81.2% over the last three years accounting for the recent drop.

Gold and energy services funds are also up the best over the last three years and were up this week, too. And these are the best funds!

Some of the REIT funds are showing signs of life, but I am not sure if they are showing signs of leadership yet.

How much of this week's action can be attributed to the changes brought on by electronic trading that has gradually replaced more and more investment jobs (higher and higher up the food chain) with computerization?

Financial ETFs: an up day for some

Here are some financial ETFs that went up considerably today, most of them regional banks. One month ago in the early 20s of August, they reached lows that some say are the opportunity of a lifetime. Caveat emptor: Jim Cramer said not to buy any stocks yet, but to use rallies like today as a selling opportunity. But he also said that many profitable companies have been unfairly "beaten up" -- it's up to you.

				Today 8/18/08	1 mth
				%	%
PowerShares Dynamic Banking	PJB	PowerShares ETF Trust		19.66	22.66
KBW Regional Banking ETF	KRE	Spdr Series Trust		17.17	31.18
iShares Dow Jones US Regional Banks	IAT	iShares Funds		13.18	24.33
KBW Bank ETF	KBE	Spdr Series Trust		12.67	17.63
Regional Bank HOLDRs	RKH	Merrill Lynch		9.98	16.03

1 yr ETF winners

Proshares UltraShort Semiconductors	SSG							67.72
Proshares UltraShort Financials	SKF							53.84
Proshares UltraShort Technology	REW							37.03
Proshares UltraShort Utilities	SDP							32.47
Proshares UltraShort Consumer Services	SCC							31.05
iPath S&P GSCI Crude Oil ETN	OIL							27.62

%

What is the world coming to? All except oil, are shorts. And oil prices being high is not great for the economy.

Year-to-date power stock searches online

msn.com, Morningstar and Barchart.com have my favorite free stock screens for year-to-date results.


msn.com has "this year's winners" power search:

http://moneycentral.msn.com/investor/finder/deluxestockscreen.aspx?query=This+Year's+Winners

Morningstar has this:

http://screen.morningstar.com/StockSearch/StockRank.html?msection=StkYTDRet&stockSector=-1&screen=TrailingReturnYTD

Barchart.com has this

http://www2.barchart.com/sectors.asp?sec=top~100~stocks.sec&level=2&title=Top+100+Stocks



They always show results different from one another. But look at the percentages!

On friendship

As my grandmother said:"Don't tell your friends anything you would not want them to know if they were not your friends." - blog comment from the New York Times today.

This is rather confusing. Isn't confiding in a friend about the only reason to have friends? We have friends to talk to about things that would waste your doctor or lawyer's time, to be sure. But you would also tell them things you would not tell just anyone and that is why they are friends.

Secrets are told not just to friends, but to your doctor or lawyer, for example. But you inevitably confide in a friend something that concerns you (something private, perhaps your family history or property details). But this maxim argues that you should not tell a friend this private confidence in case everyone finds out about it. This might be true if you have something to hide...

But what are friends for but to keep those kinds of secrets? This maxim is advocating not confiding in a friend at all. But what is the point of friendship? With whom is one a friend? What is friendship for?

Direxion Bear Funds - Up in the downtrend

Some Direxion Funds are doing well. Problem is, they are bear funds. These are not long term investments. But if short term positive results are your concern, here they are:

|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||YTD||||||||1 mth|||||3mth||||||||6mth|||||12mth||
DXDSX - DIREXION FDS DEVELOP | +56.38% | +17.76% | +37.38% | +32.43% | +45.66%
DXHSX - CHINA BEAR 2X FUND I | +37.93% | +12.96% | +22.25% | +12.75% | n/a
DXSSX - DIREXION FDS S P 500 | +35.76% | +9.74% | +16.67% | +5.77% | +34.31%
DXQSX - DIREXION FDS NASDAQ | +34.33% | +29.88% | +21.88% | -11.38% | +14.40%*

*barchart.com

Don't they look great!

Big stocks up Year-to-date: Sept 10, 2008

STOCK TALK:

Some prime-cap (large) stocks from the table in FINVIZ.com that are actually up over 25% in the last year:

VAR | 57.55% | Varian Medical
UST | 48.77% | UST
WMT | 45.65% | Walmart
CSX | 40.31 | CSX
MON | 40.14% | Monsanto
HAS | 38.32% | Hasbro
BUD | 38.31% | Anheuser-Busch
UNP | 32.00% | Union Pacific
WWY | 31.89% | William Wrigley
COV | 29.08% | Covidien

Most of these are well-known household names, a discount store (Wal-Mart), chewing gum (Wrigley), beer (Bud) and toy manufacturers (Hasbro), and American railroads to move around these goods. It is interesting to identify the not very surprising results showing where disposable incomes are being spent. The following top sectors also indicate solid consumer spending in residential building stocks, shoes and discount stores.

Found these charts in barchart.com and have cleaned up some clutter in them.

The top stocks in the very best sector year-to-date are:

BUILDING - RESIDENTIAL COMM as of Sep 10, 2008 - 13:50

Symbol Company Name YTD
MHO | M I HOMES INC | 86.60%
AXR | AMREP CP NEW | 85.60%
MTH | MERITAGE HOMES | 82.22%
TOL | TOLL BROTHERS I | 24.08%

Second best sector top stocks YTD:

RETAIL - APPAREL SHOES as of Sep 10 - 14:00

FINL | FINISH LINE CL | 360.25%
WTSLA | WET SEAL INC CL | 109.01%
BKE | BUCKLE INC | 78.91%
NWY | NEW YORK & CO I | 75.08%
PLCE | THE CHILDREN'S | 59.85%
CTRN | CITI TRENDS INC | 51.62%

Third best sector top stocks YTD:

RETAIL - DISCOUNT as of Sep 10 - 14:00

BIG | BIG LOTS INC | 104.63%
ROST | ROSS STORES INC | 61.48%
FRED | FRED'S INC | 57.87%
DLTR | DOLLAR TREE INC | 53.97%
FDO | FAMILY DOLLAR S | 42.26%
WMT | WAL MART STORES | 32.60%

Perhaps the interesting puzzle to ponder is that residential builders are ahead. With house prices dropping and overbuilding touted as a reason for the slide, why are these builders doing so much better than other stocks?

Also, notice that Finish Line looks like the most interesting chart!

Sectors up YTD - Sep 10, 2008

Here are the sectors that are up (mostly) year-to-date. There are not very many - eleven out of 150 possible sectors or about one out of 15!
Amended from barchart.com


Sector Changes - Year to Date
Ranked 1 - 25, for Sep 9
Sector Name Weighted
Alpha Daily
YTD | 1 mth| 3 mth | 6 mth | 9 mth | 1 YR
BUILDING - RESIDENTIAL | +44.24 |+13.73| +33.82| +37.02| +45.17| +37.79
RETAIL - APPAREL SHOES | +34.98 | +8.15| +26.16| +37.08| +33.44| +17.14
RETAIL - DISCOUNT | +32.59 | +2.66| +21.52| +33.27| +31.37| +10.59
TRANSPORTATION - TRUCK | +23.79 |-11.00| +18.15| +19.04| +21.55| +17.31
FINANCE - CONSUMER LOA | +15.47 | +8.36| +13.85| +19.23| +11.99| -4.63
BANKS - SOUTHWEST | +15.19 | +4.24| +9.21| +13.15| +13.60| +6.88
TOYS GAME HOBBY | +14.30 | -5.48| -0.83| +21.08| +18.59| +7.15
REIT - EQUITY TRUSTS | +14.03 | -4.03| +4.70| +13.64| +10.71| 2.38
COSMETICS TOILETRIES | +13.35 | -0.73| +14.18| +21.55| +14.92| +1.64
RETAIL - MISC DIVERSIF | +11.41 | +0.12| +11.47| +24.97| +10.39| -9.60
BANKS - NORTHEAST | +9.47 | +0.87| +8.58| +9.84| +9.71| +3.52

Panera Bread

You probably wouldn't worry about what people think of you if you could know how seldom they do.
- Olin Miller

Panera Bread

My daughters and I love going to have lunch at Panera Bread. It is part of a large chain that here in the Northeast also includes Au Bon Pain. I have really enjoyed lunches there, and have sometimes had dinner there. But lunch is their forte. They also are the place all day long for wonderful sweet snacks with tea and coffee, a Starbucks alternative with more food.

The way they have the "two for one" menu specials is awesome. They offer two of soup, salad, and generous half-sandwiches at a special price. These are great for those days when you want variety with your lunch and great taste. Their food always tastes delicious, and is organized to be ready quickly. It is also great for a fast lunch or dinner meal on the go. Their meals are always ready promptly and are meant to be collected at the front and taken to your table. Panera Bread is also a great choice for relaxed days when you want to sit down with a friend and chat at length.

What I like is the upscale ambiance combined with the great taste of the food at appropriate prices. Like Starbucks, Panera Bread has comfortable armchairs, tables with chairs, booths and high tables, imaginative architectural design and impressive lighting. Some branches, like my favorite one in the Nassau Pavilion outside of Princeton, New Jersey, have both indoor fireplace seatings and outdoor seating areas. It manages to be really welcoming every month of the year.

As far as food options are concerned, they are always mindful of the current diet obsession and were able to find low-carb breads when so challenged a few years back. Low-cal vegetable soup and sandwiches are always good for the diet conscious. They bring back favorite dishes to the menu and wonderful combinations of tasty ingredients.

One of their signature dishes is the soup in a bread bowl. The edible soup bowl can be eaten along with the soup inside. The soup gives a wonderful taste to the bread and gives you a very original meal to remember. It's a fun, light-hearted place to stop and have a cozy, light meal.

The Nassau Street branch in Princeton serves thousands of breakfasts and lunches to the visitors and parents attending Princeton University events. Wonder how the town managed before they arrived only a decade or so ago, although Au Bon Pain (in other towns) dates back decades.

Here is Panera Bread's website:

http://www.panerabread.com/

It is exceptionally helpful, chock-full of recipes and including full nutrition and calorie information on all their "cafe" dishes.

Panera Bread also has an important catering business, that I have made use of from time to time. As a very large, very organized and reliable cafe chain, they fill a niche for the lunch crowd. For a wide-ranging clientele from business to pleasure, Panera Bread has been worthy of its great success in a niche that no other chain can
match. It is a very successful national company that has had a successful stock offering, PNRA.