There are many websites to read with information from companies and engineers and videos, too, that are very helpful. Here are suggestions to achieve septic system installation success and completion from the consumer's point of view. This is a map. Here is our story.
1. Have a septic inspection performed to decide if you need a new one. I cannot emphasize the importance of this enough, as my story below details,* but if you are selling your home, and you have a septic system, an inspection must be made, at least here in New Jersey. It is the job of the septic inspector to check the current size of the tank(s) and decide whether they are sufficient in proportion to the number of the bedrooms in the house.
2. Hire a Septic Designer. If you do not think you need a new septic system, pay for another, more thorough septic inspection. If the need for a new septic system is required, ask around, specifically to the septic inspector, for the name of more than one Septic Designer. These are engineers with degrees in agricultural engineering and experience with land management of all kinds. They will be your official planner and manager of your project that you hire to draw a physical plan, organize the visits by various town officials for approvals and recommend and help supervise local septic system companies who will question your engineer on the design.
The Septic Designer will make a plan for a new system on your land, listen to your opinions, and design it wherever on your property you can both agree on, and should take the tension and fear out of the project for you. It is not necessary to be on site for this project, except perhaps meeting with the Septic Designer at a bare minimum. Signings of a new septic system plan and eventually the septic system installation contract must be completed, but a good Septic Designer is a great asset to guide the project to successful completion. (Nobody would want an unfinished septic system on their property.)
3. Have a field test performed. Your Septic Designer will want to test the ground and have a large hole dug six to twelve feet deep into the earth to test the composition of the soil, and to take water tests to determine the depth of the water table. He (or she) will organize this dig and have excavations performed. Charges will be made depending on the quantity of work done (i.e. the number of exploratory holes dug). This will involve the company's delivery (temporarily) of equipment (backhoe(s)) to your home.
4. Obtain a design from the Septic Designer. When your Designer draws up a design he is likely to ask you for remuneration for his services rendered. This amount is very worthwhile as he makes the project run without a hitch, or at least it did in my case. He will tell you the approximate cost you should expect to have to pay for the installation, and that will help define your financial responsibilities. Then the Designer gives you an official copy (or three) of the septic system plan and he also gives some copies to the municipal office.
5. Pay for permits and approvals.These fees can usually be mailed, paid in person or by the Septic Designer. The town health officer visits and okays the project in this town.
6. Choose a septic system company. You will likely wish to speak to those who will be responsible for digging up the earth and finishing the project. These septic system installers are the ones you will be paying the most to for the project. The Septic Designer should be able to provide you with a list of four or more experienced and reputable local septic system installation companies. The septic system companies can make estimates and sign contracts at your convenience, even on weekends. You should look for a company with great experience, capability and reliability.
By now, your Septic Designer is on speed dial and can be consulted as an independent sounding board as you carefully choose your septic system company. Your landscaper and local municipal officials will also likely have definite opinions on the work of local septic system companies and can be another valuable source of information as you choose the appropriate company. You may or may not wish to use the company that performed the Septic Designer's field test. (We used a different company for the installation.) The septic system companies will look at the project and come up with an estimated price that the Designer will already likely have estimated for you as the approximate price you should expect to pay. The actual installation process takes seven days or less.
7. Sign a contract with the septic system company and firm up the date. The date of completion can be included in the contract to protect yourself. Specifying continuous days (except weekends) is also achievable and desirable, weather permitting.
After signing off on the contract, all you need to do is to come up with the money to give to the septic system company in regular checks during and after they dig.
Earth-moving machinery will arrive on your site. Meeting the septic company's lead managing supervisor is always nice. They love to be thanked throughout the process, although of course, you, the consumer deserves to be thanked. I know. The contractors will remove earth and dig a large hole according to the Septic Designer's plan. The location of the hole might have to be shifted if there are boulders hidden underground.
The house system is connected to the new system, and disconnected from the old system, and only requires about six hours use (or less) of the house interior water supply to build that connection.
The installation of new piping is followed by truckloads of sand (at least this location required sand from the Jersey shore) to embed the septic equipment. By now there will be much upheaval of the ground, and many trucks (about 75 truck visits in my case, mostly repeating). There will also have been many visits by the town health and engineering divisions (coordinated by the Designer and septic system company) to further okay the project.
8. Expect it to be landscaped after the project to obtain final approval. After the work has been completed, the earth must all be roughly leveled to grade, then more finely graded for landscaping and seeded by professionals hired by the septic system company. This is all part of the cost from the septic system company.
9. Obtain all necessary final approvals to complete the project so that when it comes time to sell the house, everything will be in order.
From first inspection to final approval our project took four months to complete. Our permits for the project totaled $1,000.00. And our entire project cost about $400.00 for the septic inspection, $3,000.00 for the septic design, $1,600.00 for the field test and about $36,000.00 for the installation of the project. The actual installation was dug continuously taking less than a week because of the excellent weather conditions in late August, on time and on budget. Final municipal approval came after grass was growing on top, four months from the beginning.
The outline above is intended to to assist you in a helpful way with the steps involved in the project of getting a new septic system installed. Your experience and costs will ultimately likely vary somewhat from this. But it is a road that many others have traveled on and we hope from this you can foresee the general route.
Getting a new septic system installed is a daunting prospect for those unfamiliar with the process. After it’s all done, and works perfectly, you will feel virtuous, environmentally correct, and very relieved that it is over.
*Here’s our story: Our old stone house in west central New Jersey is about 200 years old (c. 1810), with a 1930s addition on one side. To sell it we needed to have a septic inspection completed even though there was not a single thing wrong with our existing system.
A septic inspector (step 1) who was recommended to us by a friend dug down to our septic tank and estimated the size, but the size was not sufficient to the number of bedrooms we had, something the town officials require. He guessed that another tank I mentioned to him was a cesspool or something but did not dig down and find it. He said he couldn’t find it. He orally failed our system but has not, seven months later, provided us with a report.
The Septic Designer took the word of the septic inspector that we needed a new septic system and drew up the plan. When it came time for the septic company to dig, they disconnected and completely disabled the septic tank and then went to the other tank and found while digging that the second tank was not a cesspool but was another good septic tank, and that the two together were sufficient for the number of bedrooms we had. They decided that we had two septic systems, one coming out of the old part of the house, and the other coming out of the 1930s addition. But by then, it was too late in the process to stop, and the work continued. We now have a brand new septic system.
The town housing inspector now says that we should have had another septic inspection made, but only told us that information after the new system was installed. One would think that the first person, the septic inspector, paid to make the decision would do the job properly. Getting another general septic inspection and maybe several would have been a good idea.
Also, I am less than happy that we had to have a new mound in the grass above the septic field. An unmounded look was my one requirement that was not met. I was assured all around, but only during and after the installation, that the mound is absolutely necessary and unavoidable in our area to obtain final approval. A small elevation was threatened, but a large mound is there now. Perhaps bushes and small trees will disguise it.
Maybe someone out there can benefit from this and not get a new septic system if there is no need for it.
If you are near the Princeton, New Jersey, area, I highly recommend these companies:
Craig Patterson, of Septics by Patterson, Inc., 887 New Road, Churchville, PA 18966, (215)942-9017. Our gratitude goes to our Septic Designer and son, for his patient explanations and strong but gentle guidance throughout the process.
Thomas Burd Excavations, Lambertville, NJ 08530-2610 (609) 397-1157. Awesome field test performance on a hot day.
Ernest Consoli & Sons Incorporated, 155 Hopewell Wertsville Rd., Hopewell, NJ 08525 (609) 466-3258 did the septic system installation. Thanks for doing such a big job.
Saturday, November 29, 2008
Thursday, November 20, 2008
American credit score policies should change
Credit score companies in America should change their ways as a matter of progressive social policy. They should allow us all to see our own credit scores without punishing consumers for checking their own scores. They should improve their software to allow credit score availability to consumers (of their own scores).
To be clear, it makes no more sense that one cannot check one's credit score than if a bank charged $200.00 every time a client checked on her bank balance or if a weigh scale added twenty pounds (by mistake) every time a man checked his weight. If that always happened, banks would lose customers and weigh scales would be tossed.
This is important because if a person cannot get credit, it can be more devastating than simply getting a speeding ticket for going over a speed limit. It can limit availability of food, clothing and shelter and thereby create social distress and further unrest and inequality.
Instead, credit checkers charge us to see our scores and punish our scores by lowering them if we check them often. It's so unfair and uncivilized to consumers.
Laws favor powerful credit score companies far above individual human rights and it has always been a policy that is wrong, wrong, wrong.
Since the system breeds inaccuracy because of the lack of transparency, and the unaccountability and secretiveness of the scorers, it is time for it to be changed. When and how will this stop when it is so much a part of the system? It's a hard problem. It will take legislation to correct and improve credit checking and prohibit scorers from abusing their power as they currently do.
Why can't credit lender inquiries be separated from self-check inquiries? If credit scorers had to, by law, they could easily make computer programs that allow it to happen. Password-protected sites (or variations thereof) could be implemented to protect consumers checking their own scores. The results would produce clearer pictures of creditworthiness for all.
Many lenders and vendors hoped that with the advent of computers, this credit score problem that has long existed would finally be corrected. It hasn't been. The credit system unfairly persists in unjustly and secretly lowering scores for credit-checking our own scores. It also has not done well warning affected individuals, ultimately all of us.
The following quote from Wikipedia concerning "credit scores" highlights the very problem many are having now, impacting mortgage lending (and housing prices) and consumer behaviors (buying nearly everything else):
....."hard" credit inquiries are made by lenders when consumers are seeking credit or a loan. Lenders, when granted a permissible purpose, as defined by the Fair Credit Reporting Act, can check a credit history for the purposes of extending credit to a consumer. Hard inquiries from lenders directly affect the borrower's credit score. Keeping credit inquiries to a minimum can help a person's credit rating. A lender may perceive many inquiries over a short period of time on a person's report as a signal that the person is in financial difficulty and is looking for loans and will possibly consider that person a poor credit risk.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Credit_records.
The truth is, that it generally does hurt to get a credit check of our own credit, or at least, the rumor persists that checking our own scores lowers them. Credit checks from multiple unspecified sources lower scores, we know that from the quote above. While some work has been done by credit scoring companies to open up, rumors indicate that frequent inquiries still lower scores because computer programs do not distinguish sources of credit score requests. The truth is that despite having "free access to records" we definitely have to pay to receive our own scores. This is a disservice to all consumers who would prefer to check our own scores at will.
The point is that the way scores are now created and lowered (uncontrollably and erroneously at times) destroys lives and is an increasing and dangerous problem because of the wide use of the internet amid newly-tightened lending requirements. Of course, I am not advocating publishing credit scores indiscriminately and publicly in newspapers or on the internet. Keeping records private is of paramount importance.
This problem came up in discussions today with car dealers while I was looking for a new car. By the way, I don't think there is anything wrong with my credit score though I am not about to check and possibly lower it to find out. But I, for one, would just love to be able to check my score for free as often as I want to without being threatened with punishment by credit score companies who are holding all of the cards and are unaccountably secretive. So would everyone else. I am completely sure of that. Easy technically, the current unfair system should finally be changed. Let's hope the new Administration can better serve individuals. Those credit score companies are far louder and more aggressive than any one taxpayer.
To be clear, it makes no more sense that one cannot check one's credit score than if a bank charged $200.00 every time a client checked on her bank balance or if a weigh scale added twenty pounds (by mistake) every time a man checked his weight. If that always happened, banks would lose customers and weigh scales would be tossed.
This is important because if a person cannot get credit, it can be more devastating than simply getting a speeding ticket for going over a speed limit. It can limit availability of food, clothing and shelter and thereby create social distress and further unrest and inequality.
Instead, credit checkers charge us to see our scores and punish our scores by lowering them if we check them often. It's so unfair and uncivilized to consumers.
Laws favor powerful credit score companies far above individual human rights and it has always been a policy that is wrong, wrong, wrong.
Since the system breeds inaccuracy because of the lack of transparency, and the unaccountability and secretiveness of the scorers, it is time for it to be changed. When and how will this stop when it is so much a part of the system? It's a hard problem. It will take legislation to correct and improve credit checking and prohibit scorers from abusing their power as they currently do.
Why can't credit lender inquiries be separated from self-check inquiries? If credit scorers had to, by law, they could easily make computer programs that allow it to happen. Password-protected sites (or variations thereof) could be implemented to protect consumers checking their own scores. The results would produce clearer pictures of creditworthiness for all.
Many lenders and vendors hoped that with the advent of computers, this credit score problem that has long existed would finally be corrected. It hasn't been. The credit system unfairly persists in unjustly and secretly lowering scores for credit-checking our own scores. It also has not done well warning affected individuals, ultimately all of us.
The following quote from Wikipedia concerning "credit scores" highlights the very problem many are having now, impacting mortgage lending (and housing prices) and consumer behaviors (buying nearly everything else):
....."hard" credit inquiries are made by lenders when consumers are seeking credit or a loan. Lenders, when granted a permissible purpose, as defined by the Fair Credit Reporting Act, can check a credit history for the purposes of extending credit to a consumer. Hard inquiries from lenders directly affect the borrower's credit score. Keeping credit inquiries to a minimum can help a person's credit rating. A lender may perceive many inquiries over a short period of time on a person's report as a signal that the person is in financial difficulty and is looking for loans and will possibly consider that person a poor credit risk.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Credit_records.
The truth is, that it generally does hurt to get a credit check of our own credit, or at least, the rumor persists that checking our own scores lowers them. Credit checks from multiple unspecified sources lower scores, we know that from the quote above. While some work has been done by credit scoring companies to open up, rumors indicate that frequent inquiries still lower scores because computer programs do not distinguish sources of credit score requests. The truth is that despite having "free access to records" we definitely have to pay to receive our own scores. This is a disservice to all consumers who would prefer to check our own scores at will.
The point is that the way scores are now created and lowered (uncontrollably and erroneously at times) destroys lives and is an increasing and dangerous problem because of the wide use of the internet amid newly-tightened lending requirements. Of course, I am not advocating publishing credit scores indiscriminately and publicly in newspapers or on the internet. Keeping records private is of paramount importance.
This problem came up in discussions today with car dealers while I was looking for a new car. By the way, I don't think there is anything wrong with my credit score though I am not about to check and possibly lower it to find out. But I, for one, would just love to be able to check my score for free as often as I want to without being threatened with punishment by credit score companies who are holding all of the cards and are unaccountably secretive. So would everyone else. I am completely sure of that. Easy technically, the current unfair system should finally be changed. Let's hope the new Administration can better serve individuals. Those credit score companies are far louder and more aggressive than any one taxpayer.
Saturday, November 15, 2008
The Triple Pier Antiques Show 2008 - a review
Saturday, November 14, I attended the 2008 Triple Pier Antiques Show at Piers 92 and 94 in Manhattan, New York. It continues tomorrow, Sunday, November 15.
Yes, the antiques show was spectacular. It always is, but this year exceeded every year so far. I would urge you to drop everything to get there. Run! It is huge.
I loved all the old estate jewelry especially. These are beautiful, refined pieces in excellent taste. Vintage clothing, jewelry, furniture and more appeared in Pier 92. Pier 94 held furniture, antiques and semi-modern, and more jewelry, paintings, carpets and so on.
There were so many interesting pieces that it was frustrating not to be able to buy to my heart's content. Suitcases are the best way to haul away loot. It was like too much of a good thing, and too good to be true. Everything was carefully organized and displayed, generally creating great excitement.
Despite the rainy day, many celebrities, moneyed from all over and just some rather oddly-dressed people showed up. I saw Graydon Carter, editor of Vanity Fair.
I realized that I had been walking seven nonstop hours by the end and it felt like a marathon. Well, I did stop for a few educational short conversations with vendors. My motto is to "fight ignorance".
As I kept hearing, "that's life!" Going to the Show is a great way to learn more about life, and the way people with money and collecting interests have lived.
Security was excellent but cab-finders outside were not available. I was turned away by twelve cabs before one would take me away! Except for the rain, I would have driven there as I usually do. Hope that is better for you. Sunday will bring sun.
There is an article in the New York Times today about how conspicuous consumption is again appearing unfashionable, but that is another story. It would be interesting to know if customers were buying more than other years or less today at the Show, but prices were definitely being negotiated.
http://www.stellashows.com/cgi-bin/texis/scripts/showpromo_info/stellashowdetail.html?idnum=ZJD1463&showabb=triplepier20021109
Yes, the antiques show was spectacular. It always is, but this year exceeded every year so far. I would urge you to drop everything to get there. Run! It is huge.
I loved all the old estate jewelry especially. These are beautiful, refined pieces in excellent taste. Vintage clothing, jewelry, furniture and more appeared in Pier 92. Pier 94 held furniture, antiques and semi-modern, and more jewelry, paintings, carpets and so on.
There were so many interesting pieces that it was frustrating not to be able to buy to my heart's content. Suitcases are the best way to haul away loot. It was like too much of a good thing, and too good to be true. Everything was carefully organized and displayed, generally creating great excitement.
Despite the rainy day, many celebrities, moneyed from all over and just some rather oddly-dressed people showed up. I saw Graydon Carter, editor of Vanity Fair.
I realized that I had been walking seven nonstop hours by the end and it felt like a marathon. Well, I did stop for a few educational short conversations with vendors. My motto is to "fight ignorance".
As I kept hearing, "that's life!" Going to the Show is a great way to learn more about life, and the way people with money and collecting interests have lived.
Security was excellent but cab-finders outside were not available. I was turned away by twelve cabs before one would take me away! Except for the rain, I would have driven there as I usually do. Hope that is better for you. Sunday will bring sun.
There is an article in the New York Times today about how conspicuous consumption is again appearing unfashionable, but that is another story. It would be interesting to know if customers were buying more than other years or less today at the Show, but prices were definitely being negotiated.
http://www.stellashows.com/cgi-bin/texis/scripts/showpromo_info/stellashowdetail.html?idnum=ZJD1463&showabb=triplepier20021109
Friday, November 14, 2008
It's better to be out of the market wanting to get in than the opposite
NEW YORK (MarketWatch) --
Of all the hard asset-oriented letters, Mary Anne and Pamela Aden's Aden Forecast has been perhaps the most disciplined at riding the major trend while remaining alert to short-term counter-trends.
The top-performing hard asset letter says the crisis is abating. But it's still jumpy.
...[They say]"Market research is an art. It provides you with information which gives a good indication of major trends, tendencies, which investments will do well, probable scenarios, how to invest accordingly and so on. But it doesn't anticipate the magnitude and speed of an excessive market drop prior to the fact. Research increases the advantage of being in the right markets at the right times, but it's not foolproof."
This happens with commodities especially, and the fall is surprisingly stealthy and quick. Dramatic, yes, and alarmingly sharp.
href="http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/Aden-sisters-still-jumpy/story.aspx?guid=%7B458AB987%2D23B1%2D48F9%2DA88E%2D85DA03315606%7D">http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/Aden-sisters-still-jumpy/story.aspx?guid=%7B458AB987%2D23B1%2D48F9%2DA88E%2D85DA03315606%7D
Of all the hard asset-oriented letters, Mary Anne and Pamela Aden's Aden Forecast has been perhaps the most disciplined at riding the major trend while remaining alert to short-term counter-trends.
The top-performing hard asset letter says the crisis is abating. But it's still jumpy.
...[They say]"Market research is an art. It provides you with information which gives a good indication of major trends, tendencies, which investments will do well, probable scenarios, how to invest accordingly and so on. But it doesn't anticipate the magnitude and speed of an excessive market drop prior to the fact. Research increases the advantage of being in the right markets at the right times, but it's not foolproof."
This happens with commodities especially, and the fall is surprisingly stealthy and quick. Dramatic, yes, and alarmingly sharp.
href="http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/Aden-sisters-still-jumpy/story.aspx?guid=%7B458AB987%2D23B1%2D48F9%2DA88E%2D85DA03315606%7D">http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/Aden-sisters-still-jumpy/story.aspx?guid=%7B458AB987%2D23B1%2D48F9%2DA88E%2D85DA03315606%7D
Thursday, November 13, 2008
Hedgies Have Their Day
Thanks to CNBC, here is a wonderful chart of a summary of the testimony of hedge fund managers today:
Highlights From Hedge Fund Hearing
George Soros:— Crisis Was Generated By Financial System Itself
— Financial System Pricing Somewhat Distorted In Proportion To Actual Problem— Regulators Must Accept Responsibility For Controlling Asset Bubbles
— Controlling Credit Means Using Regulations That Have Fallen Into Disuse
— Financial Market Reforms Must Be International In Scope— Basel Accords Need To Be Replaced By New Rules Reflecting New Paradigm
— Hedge Funds Need To Be Regulated Within New Framework
— Underregulation Helped Cause Current Problem, But Overregulation A Danger As Well
— Hedge Funds Helped Cause Bubble, But Have Been Devastated By Its Bursting
James Simons:
— Rating Agencies Are Among The Most Culpable For Current Problems
— Hedge Funds Were Not A Major Cause of Current Systemic Risk
— Additional Regulation Focused On Market Integrity Would Be Appropriate
— Most Important Step We Can Take Is To Keep People In Their Homes
— More Transparency From Hedge Funds Could Be Helpful
— Any Change In Tax Policy Should Be Applied Equally To All
— PIMCO, Others Should Sponsor A New Derivatives Rating Agency
Philip Falcone:
— Hedge Funds Have Positive Role In Financial Markets
— Compensation In Hedge Fund Business Is Performance Based
— Short Selling Is A Valuable Long Standing Feature of our Markets
— Our Analysts Perform Thorough Due Diligence, Not Relying On Rating Agencies
Kenneth Griffin:
— Champions The Idea of Building Clearinghouse For Credit Default Swaps
— Proper Regulation Is Key To Health Of Financial Markets
— Congress, Regulators, Industry Must All Work Together
— We Must Not Stifle Best Innovative Qualities Of Our Financial Markets
Did they have to testify? All of them clearly had time to prepare the statements they read. Major news outlets are saying that they were "called to testify" before a House committee.
James Simon politely thanked the House for the opportunity to offer comments. He made my favorite quote:
There is much blame to be shared: the SEC and perhaps the Federal Reserve for taking such a hands-off position on the leverage posture of the investment banks and the uncontrolled nature of the CDS market; the players all along the chain of creation and distribution of the paper, each of whom should have blown a whistle rather than passing the problem on to the next guy; and finally, and in my opinion the most culpable, the rating agencies, which failed in their duty and allowed sows' ears to be sold as silk purses.
http://www.cnbc.com/id/27699730
Highlights From Hedge Fund Hearing
George Soros:— Crisis Was Generated By Financial System Itself
— Financial System Pricing Somewhat Distorted In Proportion To Actual Problem— Regulators Must Accept Responsibility For Controlling Asset Bubbles
— Controlling Credit Means Using Regulations That Have Fallen Into Disuse
— Financial Market Reforms Must Be International In Scope— Basel Accords Need To Be Replaced By New Rules Reflecting New Paradigm
— Hedge Funds Need To Be Regulated Within New Framework
— Underregulation Helped Cause Current Problem, But Overregulation A Danger As Well
— Hedge Funds Helped Cause Bubble, But Have Been Devastated By Its Bursting
James Simons:
— Rating Agencies Are Among The Most Culpable For Current Problems
— Hedge Funds Were Not A Major Cause of Current Systemic Risk
— Additional Regulation Focused On Market Integrity Would Be Appropriate
— Most Important Step We Can Take Is To Keep People In Their Homes
— More Transparency From Hedge Funds Could Be Helpful
— Any Change In Tax Policy Should Be Applied Equally To All
— PIMCO, Others Should Sponsor A New Derivatives Rating Agency
Philip Falcone:
— Hedge Funds Have Positive Role In Financial Markets
— Compensation In Hedge Fund Business Is Performance Based
— Short Selling Is A Valuable Long Standing Feature of our Markets
— Our Analysts Perform Thorough Due Diligence, Not Relying On Rating Agencies
Kenneth Griffin:
— Champions The Idea of Building Clearinghouse For Credit Default Swaps
— Proper Regulation Is Key To Health Of Financial Markets
— Congress, Regulators, Industry Must All Work Together
— We Must Not Stifle Best Innovative Qualities Of Our Financial Markets
Did they have to testify? All of them clearly had time to prepare the statements they read. Major news outlets are saying that they were "called to testify" before a House committee.
James Simon politely thanked the House for the opportunity to offer comments. He made my favorite quote:
There is much blame to be shared: the SEC and perhaps the Federal Reserve for taking such a hands-off position on the leverage posture of the investment banks and the uncontrolled nature of the CDS market; the players all along the chain of creation and distribution of the paper, each of whom should have blown a whistle rather than passing the problem on to the next guy; and finally, and in my opinion the most culpable, the rating agencies, which failed in their duty and allowed sows' ears to be sold as silk purses.
http://www.cnbc.com/id/27699730
Said Eve to Adam: Your Senses, How They Sparkle, and My, What Huge Drive You Have!
“I think one of the significant issues of this business that we are all struggling with is that there is an inverse correlation between compensation and drive,” said Mark W. Yusko, president of Morgan Creek Capital Management, an investment advisory firm. “In many cases the incredible wealth that is created by this incentive compensation structure has a propensity to dull the senses and dull the drive.”
Okay, now I really get it. Instead of feeling a twinge of envy for the disproportionately large compensation of hedge fund managers, it's an opportunity to revel in our sparkling senses and overabundance of drive.
http://www.nytimes.com/2007/04/24/business/24hedge.html
Okay, now I really get it. Instead of feeling a twinge of envy for the disproportionately large compensation of hedge fund managers, it's an opportunity to revel in our sparkling senses and overabundance of drive.
http://www.nytimes.com/2007/04/24/business/24hedge.html
"Now is a time when doing nothing is doing something"
A good day in the stock market:
Dow
8,835.25\+552.59\(6.67%)
S&P 500
911.29 \ +58.99 \(6.92%)
Nasdaq
1,596.70 \ +97.49 \(6.50%)
It makes me wonder when commentators on CNBC ask whether or not a stock is cheap. Cheap? Cheap? Prices today would have been considered inconceivable a year ago, unthinkable. Imagine the conversation a year ago asking if today's below bottom prices are cheap. Impossible, right?
Of course, we can hope for a big huge gap up in the averages. But if anything great happens, most say it likely won't happen until February or March, if then.
I do wish, by the way, for more use of the Global Dow Index as a benchmark. I will use it sometimes, but for today, I will say that there was a 911-point intraday range in the Dow.
Today, Larry Kudlow on CNBC based the theme of his show on the Dow, asking whether it has finally hit bottom.
Also on CNBC, Maria Bartiromo asked Richard D. Parsons, friend of President-Elect Obama, Chairman of Time Warner and Director of Citigroup to give a market outlook. He said that the trading today is technical, and that the market will descend for the next year or two.
This idea echoed again on CNBC by Daniel Frishberg of LafferFrishberg.com, who said that there might be a rally. He likened the stock market to a beach ball that has been held under water and will pop up but, like a beach ball, will then fall back down again. He says that P/E ratios have historically stayed lower than they are now, so they could go lower.
He also said that cash has now made 20% more than any other investment, so that "now is a time when doing nothing is doing something".
Dow
8,835.25\+552.59\(6.67%)
S&P 500
911.29 \ +58.99 \(6.92%)
Nasdaq
1,596.70 \ +97.49 \(6.50%)
It makes me wonder when commentators on CNBC ask whether or not a stock is cheap. Cheap? Cheap? Prices today would have been considered inconceivable a year ago, unthinkable. Imagine the conversation a year ago asking if today's below bottom prices are cheap. Impossible, right?
Of course, we can hope for a big huge gap up in the averages. But if anything great happens, most say it likely won't happen until February or March, if then.
I do wish, by the way, for more use of the Global Dow Index as a benchmark. I will use it sometimes, but for today, I will say that there was a 911-point intraday range in the Dow.
Today, Larry Kudlow on CNBC based the theme of his show on the Dow, asking whether it has finally hit bottom.
Also on CNBC, Maria Bartiromo asked Richard D. Parsons, friend of President-Elect Obama, Chairman of Time Warner and Director of Citigroup to give a market outlook. He said that the trading today is technical, and that the market will descend for the next year or two.
This idea echoed again on CNBC by Daniel Frishberg of LafferFrishberg.com, who said that there might be a rally. He likened the stock market to a beach ball that has been held under water and will pop up but, like a beach ball, will then fall back down again. He says that P/E ratios have historically stayed lower than they are now, so they could go lower.
He also said that cash has now made 20% more than any other investment, so that "now is a time when doing nothing is doing something".
Wednesday, November 12, 2008
Paulson says US bail-out is working (excerpt)
The $700bn (£494bn) US bail-out package has already "clearly helped stabilise" the financial system, US Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson has said.
...Mr Paulson's comments did little to ease continuing investor jitters, and Wall Street's main Dow Jones index ended Wednesday trading in New York down 4.7%.*
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/business/7724325.stm
...Mr Paulson's comments did little to ease continuing investor jitters, and Wall Street's main Dow Jones index ended Wednesday trading in New York down 4.7%.*
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/business/7724325.stm
| 8,282.66 | -411.30 | (-4.73%) | |
| 852.30 | -46.65 | (-5.19%) | |
| 1,499.21 | -81.69 | (-5.17%) | |
What Is It Like to Lose $100 Million a Day? WSJ excerpt
"A graphic in Vanity Fair last month showing the biggest stock-market losers had Warren Buffett down about $16 billion. The Walton kids were down a combined $21 billion. The Google guys were each down about $12 billion, as was Bill Gates. (Overseas, there are some even more impressive, er, losers, such as Lakshmi Mittal racking up more than 20 billion pounds in paper losses...)."*
*The Wall Street Journal
Have to feel sorry for the likes of Sheldon Adelson.
"His investments have declined by more than $30 billion, yes with a “b,” in the past year.
Getty Images
http://blogs.wsj.com/wealth/2008/11/12/what-is-it-like-to-lose-100-million-a-day/
*The Wall Street Journal
Have to feel sorry for the likes of Sheldon Adelson.
"His investments have declined by more than $30 billion, yes with a “b,” in the past year.
Getty ImagesPut another way, his net worth declined by about $100 million a day, or $4.1 million an hour, or $69,000 a minute, or $1,157 a second.
It is possible Mr. Adelson now may hold the title for the largest one-year paper loss in U.S. history."
http://blogs.wsj.com/wealth/2008/11/12/what-is-it-like-to-lose-100-million-a-day/
An introduction to the Global Dow Index
NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- The Global Dow launched on Tuesday -- the first addition to the Dow Jones Averages family of indexes in 75 years.
Like its famous progenitor, the Dow Jones Industrial Average stocks in The Global Dow are selected by senior editors of The Wall Street Journal. Joining them for this new index were Dow Jones Newswires senior editors in the three major regions of the globe.
The Global Dow (GDOW 1,418.45, -12.82, -0.9%) is much bigger -- 150 stocks rather than 30 -- and its components are weighted equally rather than by price. *
http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/New-global-index-takes-pulse/story.aspx?guid=%7BC57CB27C%2D177A%2D4491%2D84DF%2D19AC8C3A195B%7D
Here is a link to the official press release:
http://www.globenewswire.com/newsroom/news.html?d=154421
Here is a video of the announcement:
In my view, it should gain more press attention.
And now for the acid test, the All Data chart, which shows the impressive upswing 2003-2008, and the last unbelievable, shocking few months, a "once-in-a-lifetime" event. Yes, definitely enough for a lifetime.
The Global Dow (GDOW 1,418.45, -12.82, -0.9%) is much bigger -- 150 stocks rather than 30 -- and its components are weighted equally rather than by price. *
http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/New-global-index-takes-pulse/story.aspx?guid=%7BC57CB27C%2D177A%2D4491%2D84DF%2D19AC8C3A195B%7D
...The largest three components by float-adjusted market capitalization in the Global Dow are Exxon Mobil Corp., Procter & Gamble Co. and General Electric Co. The smallest are General Motors Corp., Renewable Energy Corp. ASA (Norway), and Suntech Power Holdings Co. (China).
As of the close on Monday, the Global Dow is down 44.22% for the year to date. The index's performance will be listed each day in the Markets Lineup chart package, on page C4.
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB122644452817118779.htmlHere is a link to the official press release:
http://www.globenewswire.com/newsroom/news.html?d=154421
Here is a video of the announcement:
In my view, it should gain more press attention.
And now for the acid test, the All Data chart, which shows the impressive upswing 2003-2008, and the last unbelievable, shocking few months, a "once-in-a-lifetime" event. Yes, definitely enough for a lifetime.
 |
How to achieve family harmony
Today I saw an interview of Michael J. Fox on the Rachael Ray Show. Rachael asked him the key to happiness and harmony in marriage and he said that (someone told him) "if a lady 'says' something then she is going to be right". I realized as he said it that he touched a sensitive nerve.
If she says something emphatically, that she feels strongly about, then her husband should try if at all possible to just let it go. Even if he does not agree, he has to laugh. Even if the whole family knows she's probably wrong, the best thing to do is to just relax and pick another battle. Just publicly agree. (The entire family might even privately agree she's wrong, too, don't worry!).
She needs to save face and appear to have some power, too, and this is her big chance to gain the support and approval that feels to her like love. That is how a woman feels, and with her good graces, how a family achieves harmony.
Besides, she might just be right.
If she says something emphatically, that she feels strongly about, then her husband should try if at all possible to just let it go. Even if he does not agree, he has to laugh. Even if the whole family knows she's probably wrong, the best thing to do is to just relax and pick another battle. Just publicly agree. (The entire family might even privately agree she's wrong, too, don't worry!).
She needs to save face and appear to have some power, too, and this is her big chance to gain the support and approval that feels to her like love. That is how a woman feels, and with her good graces, how a family achieves harmony.
Besides, she might just be right.
My question-of-the-day
Are there precedents in American history of someone with similar credentials and education to Sarah Palin who has ever gone on to win a Presidential election?
Obviously, a Presidential front-runner has not been:
1) a woman
2) a mother of young kids
3) a governor of a state who is a woman
4) wife of a fisherman
5) wife of an Eskimo
6) special-needs-kid mom
7) hockey-mom
8) in such public need of hair and clothes upgrades for her and her family.
9) with a bachelor's degree in journalism (verification, please)
10) self-professed "expert" in oil and oil exploration (see vice-presidential debate)
11) an aggressive hunter and consumer of defenseless wildlife
12) a honey of the National Rifle Association. Do they care about the high national murder rate and how to change it?
She is evidently not over-educated and definitely not well-traveled in preparation for a national run. When is she going to travel internationally enough to broaden her sharp attitudes? And I had heard that New Jerseyans are known for 'picking up "attitudes." '
Is her aggression going to win anything more for her? I hope not.
When will she learn that the diverse genealogical composition of the people inside America who are already living here is an all-encompassing benefit?
She is clearly an aggressive, assertive and argumentative woman, who had the least credentials of any recent female candidates to have gotten almost as high as she has. She is definitely riding along the road paved by Hilary Clinton.
I could go on and on. But I am just blogging.
Wonder if she has ever used a computer? Haven't noticed any sign of that at all. She is unlikely to read this.
President-elect Obama has amazing and exciting computer initiatives planned that could revolutionize the access of Americans to computers through national broadband access. There are plans for a Cabinet level appointment of a Chief Technology Officer with mandates to keep the internet open and improve it while safeguarding privacy.
Even math and science research will be encouraged by the new Administration.
Obviously, a Presidential front-runner has not been:
1) a woman
2) a mother of young kids
3) a governor of a state who is a woman
4) wife of a fisherman
5) wife of an Eskimo
6) special-needs-kid mom
7) hockey-mom
8) in such public need of hair and clothes upgrades for her and her family.
9) with a bachelor's degree in journalism (verification, please)
10) self-professed "expert" in oil and oil exploration (see vice-presidential debate)
11) an aggressive hunter and consumer of defenseless wildlife
12) a honey of the National Rifle Association. Do they care about the high national murder rate and how to change it?
She is evidently not over-educated and definitely not well-traveled in preparation for a national run. When is she going to travel internationally enough to broaden her sharp attitudes? And I had heard that New Jerseyans are known for 'picking up "attitudes." '
Is her aggression going to win anything more for her? I hope not.
When will she learn that the diverse genealogical composition of the people inside America who are already living here is an all-encompassing benefit?
She is clearly an aggressive, assertive and argumentative woman, who had the least credentials of any recent female candidates to have gotten almost as high as she has. She is definitely riding along the road paved by Hilary Clinton.
I could go on and on. But I am just blogging.
Wonder if she has ever used a computer? Haven't noticed any sign of that at all. She is unlikely to read this.
President-elect Obama has amazing and exciting computer initiatives planned that could revolutionize the access of Americans to computers through national broadband access. There are plans for a Cabinet level appointment of a Chief Technology Officer with mandates to keep the internet open and improve it while safeguarding privacy.
Even math and science research will be encouraged by the new Administration.
Tuesday, November 11, 2008
Trying to find bright spots in the market
Here's one dramatic cosmetic change:
On November 7, 2008 Royal Bank of Scotland Group plc (RBS) completed a reverse split in the ratio of 20:1 of its ADR shares traded in New York.
http://seekingalpha.com/article/105148-will-royal-bank-of-scotland-s-reverse-split-help-its-share-price?source=yahoo
Seriously, I noticed at the bottom of the Finviz.com website, which I have recommended before, there is a line of stocks toward the bottom that channeled up today, such as
They look interesting. These stocks are good for keeping an eye on, but I am not recommending leaping before looking. Then there are some more trending up, and the first looks quite good:
This company looks compelling and I saw the CEO interviewed a few weeks ago. They make nuts, snacks, popcorn brands that are already familiar in supermarkets and are evidently thriving. Their website says they are the largest exporter of walnuts from California to Europe and Asia.
Here is an interview courtesy Bloomberg television with CEO Michael Mendes about his desire to expand into the baking product, snack and produce area.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ex8KxRj2GR4
| Chart: daily technical | |
  | |
| |
| RBS [NYSE] |
| Royal Bank of Scotland Group plc |
| Financial - Foreign Money Center Banks - United Kingdom |
On November 7, 2008 Royal Bank of Scotland Group plc (RBS) completed a reverse split in the ratio of 20:1 of its ADR shares traded in New York.
This reverse split was first announced on Oct 30,2008 (Source: RBS Investor Relations Site):
...Only time will tell if the reverse split will be successful or not in the long runhttp://seekingalpha.com/article/105148-will-royal-bank-of-scotland-s-reverse-split-help-its-share-price?source=yahoo
Seriously, I noticed at the bottom of the Finviz.com website, which I have recommended before, there is a line of stocks toward the bottom that channeled up today, such as
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They look interesting. These stocks are good for keeping an eye on, but I am not recommending leaping before looking. Then there are some more trending up, and the first looks quite good:
| DMND [NASD] |
| Diamond Foods, Inc. |
| Consumer Goods - Processed & Packaged Goods - USA |
Here is an interview courtesy Bloomberg television with CEO Michael Mendes about his desire to expand into the baking product, snack and produce area.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ex8KxRj2GR4
Monday, November 10, 2008
What Crisis? Some Hedge Funds Gain - by Louise Story (excerpts)
There is an article in Monday's New York Times about hedge funds that have increased their returns this year. (Excerpts are in italics, boldface mine).
How did he do it? Mr. Drury, a former grain trader, is not giving away his secrets. He relies on proprietary computer models to chart tides in the markets and to ride the prevailing currents...
This secretiveness could indicate the success of different strategies:
1) One would have been to sell early on in the year (yes, well) while ahead, and buy T-bills.
2) Or why not short stocks? (Mm-hmm). Some short funds are up substantially for the year (please see the chart below from Barchart.com), but it is not the best permanent strategy for buying stocks if a goal of investing is to help companies raise cash to increase their business. While these funds might be up because of savvy shorting, they could get caught on a strong upwind - just as most were caught on the downdraft.
...another big wave of withdrawals in mid-November could further unsettle the markets....Hedge fund returns, on average, are down 20 percent. But one in every 50 funds is up more than 30 percent — an astonishing performance, considering the broad stock market is down even more than that...
Betting against the subprime mortgage market helped, of course. (A lot!)
These traders sit at desks and their computers watching numbers go up and down. That is what they do all day. That is most all they do at the office, too. That's how they get the experience to trade on hunches.
...A showing that would have been considered dismal only a year ago is now viewed as a standout success. Traders even joke that down 10 percent is the new break-even. Actually making money is all the more rare.
...Exis Capital, a $150 million fund that trades stocks, is up 9 percent this year, even after the fund’s manager took their 50 percent fee, according to investors....
...In commodities trading, Touradji Capital Management is up 11 percent
...Trafalgar, a hedge fund in London, manages 10 funds. Three are down, but two — a volatility fund, and “special situations” fund — are up more than 20 percent, according to an investor. Trafalgar declined to say what special situations it had pounced on. Volatility funds, a category that is broadly doing well, focus on trading options and try to profit when the markets swing wildly as they have lately....
...(Marek) Fludzinski, the chief executive of Thales Fund Management, was among the computer-loving quantitative fund managers who suffered in 2007, when his fund lost 8 percent. Investors immediately began asking for their money back, so Mr. Fludzinski shut the $1.6 billion fund and started anew. Now his computer-driven fund, created in May, has grown to $350 million from $80 million in assets and is up 14 percent.
...Marc H. Malek, a former UBS trader who manages $611 million, is up 44 percent in his macro fund....
...Roy Niederhoffer, founder of R. G. Niederhoffer Capital Management, whose more famous brother, Victor, made and then lost a fortune trading, is up more than 50 percent.
It wouldn't be prudent not to end with a reminder that only one in three hedge funds are up this year. Most hedge funds are off, with history-making lows.
...This year, some 70 percent of hedge funds had lost money from Jan. 1 through the end of September...(but what about October, when most of the damage happened?)
"One good year can vault a small player to the big leagues." Hope springs eternal.
Sounds more hopeful than Nouriel Roubini on CNBC today who said that the markets will still fall another 20-30% and that America will forever into the future be beholden to China and India. He also sees unemployment rising dramatically ahead.
Tim Knight on his blog, SlopeofHope.com wrote yesterday that this downturn is unlike anything in the charts he has seen, the Great Depression, 1987, 2001, etc. He says that there just isn't anything in his charts that compares.
Rhonda Schaffler on Bloomberg TV this morning said that this is different than other downturns because it involves all of the markets, the stock, bond, commodity markets and housing and all are falling in price.
There just isn't anywhere to hide, is what I keep hearing. Super gloom all around and hardly anyone is buying stocks yet!
Maybe the Green initiative with emphasis on fossil fuels and alternative energy will lift us out of this miry economic bog, or so said James Galbraith, an economist at the U of Texas, and son of Canadian Nobel prize winning economist, J.K. Galbraith, on NPR this morning. Sustainability! We should think Green.
Jim Cramer mentioned PPG, a glassmaker, on CNBC today as a play on this theme and China. (Must be hard to do his show when his stock picks keep falling! But whatever, who knows? He makes a good case.)
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/11/10/business/economy/10hedge.html?hp
Here is a chart from Barchart.com with top open mutual funds year-to-date. All are short funds:
Bernard V. Drury is a rarity on Wall Street: a hedge fund manager who is making money rather than losing it.
Aaron Houston for The New York Times.
A hedge fund operated by Bernard V. Drury, of Drury Capital, has risen 60 percent since Jan. 1.
While most hedge funds are sinking into red this year and unsettling the markets in the process, a handful of them are posting spectacular gains. Mr. Drury’s fund, for instance, is up 60 percent since Jan. 1.
How did he do it? Mr. Drury, a former grain trader, is not giving away his secrets. He relies on proprietary computer models to chart tides in the markets and to ride the prevailing currents...
This secretiveness could indicate the success of different strategies:
1) One would have been to sell early on in the year (yes, well) while ahead, and buy T-bills.
2) Or why not short stocks? (Mm-hmm). Some short funds are up substantially for the year (please see the chart below from Barchart.com), but it is not the best permanent strategy for buying stocks if a goal of investing is to help companies raise cash to increase their business. While these funds might be up because of savvy shorting, they could get caught on a strong upwind - just as most were caught on the downdraft.
...another big wave of withdrawals in mid-November could further unsettle the markets....Hedge fund returns, on average, are down 20 percent. But one in every 50 funds is up more than 30 percent — an astonishing performance, considering the broad stock market is down even more than that...
Winners include trend-followers like Mr. Drury; market-spanning macro funds, which dart in and out of an array of markets and bet on everything from Apple Inc. to zinc; and niche players that are buying insurance policies or making loans to small companies.
Some of this year’s stars are familiar names on Wall Street. For instance, a fund managed by John Paulson, who reportedly was paid $3.7 billion in 2007 after betting against the subprime mortgage market, has gained nearly 30 percent this year in his largest fund, investors say.
Betting against the subprime mortgage market helped, of course. (A lot!)
These traders sit at desks and their computers watching numbers go up and down. That is what they do all day. That is most all they do at the office, too. That's how they get the experience to trade on hunches.
...A showing that would have been considered dismal only a year ago is now viewed as a standout success. Traders even joke that down 10 percent is the new break-even. Actually making money is all the more rare.
“This year, anything north of 10 percent is spectacular,” said Pierre Villeneuve, managing director of the Mapleridge Capital Corporation, a $750 million hedge fund in Canada that is up 18 percent.
Other funds with big winnings include R. G. Niederhoffer Capital Management; Conquest Capital Group; MKP Capital Management; the Tulip Trend Fund, run by Progressive Capital; and funds run by John W. Henry & Company.......Exis Capital, a $150 million fund that trades stocks, is up 9 percent this year, even after the fund’s manager took their 50 percent fee, according to investors....
...In commodities trading, Touradji Capital Management is up 11 percent
...Trafalgar, a hedge fund in London, manages 10 funds. Three are down, but two — a volatility fund, and “special situations” fund — are up more than 20 percent, according to an investor. Trafalgar declined to say what special situations it had pounced on. Volatility funds, a category that is broadly doing well, focus on trading options and try to profit when the markets swing wildly as they have lately....
...(Marek) Fludzinski, the chief executive of Thales Fund Management, was among the computer-loving quantitative fund managers who suffered in 2007, when his fund lost 8 percent. Investors immediately began asking for their money back, so Mr. Fludzinski shut the $1.6 billion fund and started anew. Now his computer-driven fund, created in May, has grown to $350 million from $80 million in assets and is up 14 percent.
...Marc H. Malek, a former UBS trader who manages $611 million, is up 44 percent in his macro fund....
...Roy Niederhoffer, founder of R. G. Niederhoffer Capital Management, whose more famous brother, Victor, made and then lost a fortune trading, is up more than 50 percent.
It wouldn't be prudent not to end with a reminder that only one in three hedge funds are up this year. Most hedge funds are off, with history-making lows.
...This year, some 70 percent of hedge funds had lost money from Jan. 1 through the end of September...(but what about October, when most of the damage happened?)
"One good year can vault a small player to the big leagues." Hope springs eternal.
Sounds more hopeful than Nouriel Roubini on CNBC today who said that the markets will still fall another 20-30% and that America will forever into the future be beholden to China and India. He also sees unemployment rising dramatically ahead.
Tim Knight on his blog, SlopeofHope.com wrote yesterday that this downturn is unlike anything in the charts he has seen, the Great Depression, 1987, 2001, etc. He says that there just isn't anything in his charts that compares.
Rhonda Schaffler on Bloomberg TV this morning said that this is different than other downturns because it involves all of the markets, the stock, bond, commodity markets and housing and all are falling in price.
There just isn't anywhere to hide, is what I keep hearing. Super gloom all around and hardly anyone is buying stocks yet!
Maybe the Green initiative with emphasis on fossil fuels and alternative energy will lift us out of this miry economic bog, or so said James Galbraith, an economist at the U of Texas, and son of Canadian Nobel prize winning economist, J.K. Galbraith, on NPR this morning. Sustainability! We should think Green.
Jim Cramer mentioned PPG, a glassmaker, on CNBC today as a play on this theme and China. (Must be hard to do his show when his stock picks keep falling! But whatever, who knows? He makes a good case.)
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/11/10/business/economy/10hedge.html?hp
Here is a chart from Barchart.com with top open mutual funds year-to-date. All are short funds:
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Friday, November 7, 2008
General remarks on a Marketwatch article
Here are excerpts (and my commentary) from an interesting article in Marketwatch, summarizing newsletters currently being sent out from hedge funds, with
fascinating warnings about the near future, and encouragement of careful stock selection.
Interesting they all are because no one really knows what will happen.
More pain expected, but some look for opportunities in 'rubble', by Alistair Barr
SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) -- In the midst of the worst financial crisis since the Great Depression, several top hedge fund managers sent a grim message to their investors in October: it isn't over.
..."Be careful buying ANYTHING today," Kyle Bass, managing partner of Hayman Advisors, warned in an Oct. 17 letter to investors.
Am I ever glad to see that final note of hope and optimism.
A friend of mine is saying that she would like to get better than 3% for her investments. Of course, three percent overall for this year, not shorting, would have been "good", in retrospect.
I think that there are lots of Treasury bills that could hand over more than that amount. Even Fidelity Cash Reserves are offering nearly 5%, and then again some real estate funds that are based solely or mostly on returns from commercial rents are steady growers usually, like the TIAA-CREF Real Estate fund. It's just hard to beat the money-market rate without shorting.
The "peer-to-peer lending" idea is catching on. A friend today invested with a promised 8.5% return in a year in a bridge loan for a soul-food restaurant. Businesses are looking at innovative ways to raise money to meet their short-term expenses.
http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/Top-hedge-fund-managers-funereal/story.aspx?guid=%7B8C0A785F%2DF1E5%2D4E84%2DB020%2DB4E6AA1C6496%7D&dist=hplatest
fascinating warnings about the near future, and encouragement of careful stock selection.
Interesting they all are because no one really knows what will happen.
Hedge fund managers 'funereal' in midst of crisis
More pain expected, but some look for opportunities in 'rubble', by Alistair Barr
SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) -- In the midst of the worst financial crisis since the Great Depression, several top hedge fund managers sent a grim message to their investors in October: it isn't over.
...The Maverick Fund, Ltd. was down more than 7% last month through Oct. 17, leaving it off roughly 26% so far this year, according to a hedge fund performance report compiled by HSBC's private bank.
In Maverick's Oct. 9 letter to investors, the firm reported that its funds lost between 14.4% and 40.6% during the third quarter.
"I cannot find words to describe our disappointment, embarrassment and shock over the above results," Ainslie wrote.....
..."Be careful buying ANYTHING today," Kyle Bass, managing partner of Hayman Advisors, warned in an Oct. 17 letter to investors.
"There will be a time to buy stocks," he added. "That time is a few years into the future when the strong have separated themselves from the week ... a time when unemployment has hit 10% and U.S. GDP has dropped 4-5% (maybe more)."
He criticized Berkshire Hathaway (BRKA)
Chairman Warren Buffett who advised investors to buy U.S. stocks in a New York Times column last month.
"Mr. Buffett has enough money to be able to have his holdings drop 50% and still fly in his jets and live the way in which he has become accustomed," Bass wrote. "Do you have enough capital to take what you have left, cut it in half, and continue to live the way you have for the past few years? I don't."...
...Seth Klarman, a top-performing value investor and head of The Baupost Group LLC, told clients in an Oct. 10 letter that the economic downturn could be "vicious and protracted."
...Oaktree's Marks expects boutique investment banks including Evercore (EVR) to benefit as larger banks become more regulated, bureaucratic and risk-averse.
...Seth Klarman, a top-performing value investor and head of The Baupost Group LLC, told clients in an Oct. 10 letter that the economic downturn could be "vicious and protracted."
"The financial market collapse and bailout makes us sick," he wrote. "There is likely more carnage to come."
The U.S. dollar will likely weaken and its reign as the world's reserve currency could end, Klarman predicted. Longer-term, U.S. interest rates may rise as foreigners have to be enticed more to invest in dollar-denominated assets, he added.
The recent Treasury Department bailout has yet to be paid for and should add to inflationary pressures over time, especially when the economy begins to recover, he said....
...Thomas Barrack, founder of distressed debt and real estate investment firm Colony Capital, said the crisis has exposed how complicated the financial system has become -- and how difficult it will be to get it working properly again.
...Thomas Barrack, founder of distressed debt and real estate investment firm Colony Capital, said the crisis has exposed how complicated the financial system has become -- and how difficult it will be to get it working properly again.
"I have absolutely no idea how the intricacies of the global financial system function. I had previously taken solace in believing that 'the other guys' did understand," said Barrack, a former Reagan administration official. "What we all now realize is that nobody understands and nobody ever understood."
"The current turmoil is larger, more complicated, more volatile, more interconnected and more global than anyone had anticipated," he added in an Oct. 14 letter to investors.
Barrack has experience with troubled banks during previous financial crises...Bank stocks probably haven't bottomed yet and the stock market "will no doubt have further and dramatic dips," he predicted....Oaktree's Marks expects boutique investment banks including Evercore (EVR) to benefit as larger banks become more regulated, bureaucratic and risk-averse.
"In the third stage of a bear market ... everyone agrees things can only get worse," Marks wrote on Oct. 16. "There's no doubt in my mind that the bear market reached the third stage last week."
"That doesn't mean it can't decline further, or that a bull market's about to start," he added. "But certainly it's a good time to pick among the rubble."
Maverick's Ainslie said on Oct. 9 that he'd never seen as many extremely over-valued and under-valued stocks at the same time. That presents great opportunities for hedge funds that both short equities and go long.
"The most important objective at this point is simply to endure this unique turbulence to be positions to take advantage of the far more productive environment that will exist on the other side of this nightmare," he wrote. 
Am I ever glad to see that final note of hope and optimism.
A friend of mine is saying that she would like to get better than 3% for her investments. Of course, three percent overall for this year, not shorting, would have been "good", in retrospect.
I think that there are lots of Treasury bills that could hand over more than that amount. Even Fidelity Cash Reserves are offering nearly 5%, and then again some real estate funds that are based solely or mostly on returns from commercial rents are steady growers usually, like the TIAA-CREF Real Estate fund. It's just hard to beat the money-market rate without shorting.
The "peer-to-peer lending" idea is catching on. A friend today invested with a promised 8.5% return in a year in a bridge loan for a soul-food restaurant. Businesses are looking at innovative ways to raise money to meet their short-term expenses.
http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/Top-hedge-fund-managers-funereal/story.aspx?guid=%7B8C0A785F%2DF1E5%2D4E84%2DB020%2DB4E6AA1C6496%7D&dist=hplatest
Thursday, November 6, 2008
Jewelry Bead Shops near Princeton, New Jersey
Since the Dow dropped nearly 500 points yesterday, and the market atmostphere is so gloomy, it could be a good time to buy stocks if the prognosis for the general economy weren't so pessimistic. It is hard to be really bullish at this point in time. Warren Buffett is, though, and getting solid returns we can only dream of.
For a little fun and spontaneity, let's focus on buying something tangible and beautiful: jewelry!!! Reading reviews about bead and gemstone shops in New York City yesterday, I found them very helpful.
Here is a list of three bead shops around here, the Princeton, New Jersey area, all nice for enthusiasts. They all have "findings" for making jewelry (a.k.a. "lapidary supplies").
1. The Place to Bead
http://www.beadnow.com/
41 Witherspoon St
Princeton, NJ 08542
(609) 921-8050
In the center of Princeton, this is a wonderful small shop, with a good selection of gemstones and ready-to-wear jewelry. They have many beads including vintage, pearls, and a variety of gemstones, as well as finished pendants, rings, and necklaces. Helpful staff. Parking available at nearby parking ramps, accessible by train. Close to several coffee shops and restaurants.
2. Artful beads Studio and Workshop
http://www.artfulbeadstudio.com/
7 Tree Farm Rd # 107
Pennington, NJ 08534
(609) 737-1077
The most beautiful of the three shops with lovely painted furniture and thoughtful, complicated presentations behind glass. Fun to browse. Friendly atmosphere with helpful staff and lessons to sign up for. There are many beads, gemstones and findings with finished jewelry here, as well. Free parking. Attractive, quiet location in a new shopping area. Also close to coffee. My favorite, and most often visited.
3. Bucks County Beads
http://www.buckscountybeads.com
The Corners at Newtown Place Shopping Center
2 Cambridge Lane
Newtown, PA 18940
(215) 579-8340
If there are any other similar businesses close to Princeton, please email me with information.
.
For a little fun and spontaneity, let's focus on buying something tangible and beautiful: jewelry!!! Reading reviews about bead and gemstone shops in New York City yesterday, I found them very helpful.
Here is a list of three bead shops around here, the Princeton, New Jersey area, all nice for enthusiasts. They all have "findings" for making jewelry (a.k.a. "lapidary supplies").
1. The Place to Bead
http://www.beadnow.com/
41 Witherspoon St
Princeton, NJ 08542
(609) 921-8050
In the center of Princeton, this is a wonderful small shop, with a good selection of gemstones and ready-to-wear jewelry. They have many beads including vintage, pearls, and a variety of gemstones, as well as finished pendants, rings, and necklaces. Helpful staff. Parking available at nearby parking ramps, accessible by train. Close to several coffee shops and restaurants.
2. Artful beads Studio and Workshop
http://www.artfulbeadstudio.com/
7 Tree Farm Rd # 107
Pennington, NJ 08534
(609) 737-1077
The most beautiful of the three shops with lovely painted furniture and thoughtful, complicated presentations behind glass. Fun to browse. Friendly atmosphere with helpful staff and lessons to sign up for. There are many beads, gemstones and findings with finished jewelry here, as well. Free parking. Attractive, quiet location in a new shopping area. Also close to coffee. My favorite, and most often visited.
3. Bucks County Beads
http://www.buckscountybeads.com
The Corners at Newtown Place Shopping Center
2 Cambridge Lane
Newtown, PA 18940
(215) 579-8340
If there are any other similar businesses close to Princeton, please email me with information.
Sunday, November 2, 2008
The Moral of the Story: Baby Boomers could learn from 2008
Ultimately, it is up to the Baby Boom generation to change our country’s course. The oldest Boomer is 62 years old and the youngest 45 years old. It is time for Boomers to take a hard look in the mirror and rethink their priorities. It is time to cast aside the $88,000 Range Rovers, $1,200 Jimmy Choo boots, $5,000 Rolex watches and daily double lattes at Starbucks. It is time to live within your means, distinguish between needs and wants, reduce debt, save 10% of your income, make sure your kids get a good education, not try and keep up with the Joneses, show compassion for your fellow man, and possibly pay more taxes and get less benefits, for the good of the country.
quote from James Quinn's article "The Shallowest Generation" in "Seeking Alpha" http://seekingalpha.com/article/103202-the-shallowest-generation?source=article_sb_popular
quote from James Quinn's article "The Shallowest Generation" in "Seeking Alpha" http://seekingalpha.com/article/103202-the-shallowest-generation?source=article_sb_popular
Start a Business!
There is a very interesting article and slideshow today at Forbes.com that details thirteen businesses that anyone in the U.S. can start for less than $5,000. Here they are in a list, all at once:
1. direct retail sales
2. interior design
3. event planner
4. home landscaping (esp interior)
5. SAT tutoring
6. yoga instructor
7. computer trouble shooting and repair
8. child care
9. writing software
10. graphic design
11. consulting
12. public relations
13. web work
For more information on these, see this:
http://www.forbes.com/2008/10/29/startup-under-5000-ent-fin-cx_mf_1029underfivethousand.html?feed=rss_news
A few more ideas would be:
1. staging or "use what you have" decorating to ready for sale
2. painting, interior and exterior
3. painting pictures or doing sculpture for a gallery
4. bead jewelry-making and sales
5. house-cleaning business
6. handyman, because not all men are handy
7. piano lessons (especially mobile)
8. novel-writing
9. blogging
10. personalized greeting cards and birthday cards
11. calligraphy (fancy handwriting)
12. pet-walking, boarding, feeding
13. "personal shopping" for others; many niches such as food and gifts for the elderly, the ill, children
There are lots of businesses to start, depending on your situation, education, desire, what you already have and how much time and energy and good health you have. There are businesses to start in your area that are already thriving nearby or in other countries that most likely could be started with little expenditure. The list goes on and on!
Many of my acquaintances have combinations of these. A friend of mine has four businesses at once: staging, pet-feeding, giving professional massages, and teaching horseback riding when she isn't riding or caring for her three almost-launched children. Another is a concert pianist who can play for ages by memory in front of a packed audience with an orchestra, models on request and has done so in major cities, makes over-the-top jewelry (dodidesigns.com) and gives piano lessons while taking advanced degree classes.
This entry could be titled "start another business". The possibilities are endless, and the advantage of many is that you can choose your hours and have flexible convenient work.
For many, these started out as hobbies. Test them out to see if they make enjoyable pastimes. You can finally do what you may have always wanted to do, and keep learning something new.
Currently, anyone with American citizenship (or resident alien card) can own a business in the U.S. Different countries have different requirements.
Invest in yourself. And keep your health. Always. These jobs could help you do just that.
1. direct retail sales
2. interior design
3. event planner
4. home landscaping (esp interior)
5. SAT tutoring
6. yoga instructor
7. computer trouble shooting and repair
8. child care
9. writing software
10. graphic design
11. consulting
12. public relations
13. web work
For more information on these, see this:
http://www.forbes.com/2008/10/29/startup-under-5000-ent-fin-cx_mf_1029underfivethousand.html?feed=rss_news
A few more ideas would be:
1. staging or "use what you have" decorating to ready for sale
2. painting, interior and exterior
3. painting pictures or doing sculpture for a gallery
4. bead jewelry-making and sales
5. house-cleaning business
6. handyman, because not all men are handy
7. piano lessons (especially mobile)
8. novel-writing
9. blogging
10. personalized greeting cards and birthday cards
11. calligraphy (fancy handwriting)
12. pet-walking, boarding, feeding
13. "personal shopping" for others; many niches such as food and gifts for the elderly, the ill, children
There are lots of businesses to start, depending on your situation, education, desire, what you already have and how much time and energy and good health you have. There are businesses to start in your area that are already thriving nearby or in other countries that most likely could be started with little expenditure. The list goes on and on!
Many of my acquaintances have combinations of these. A friend of mine has four businesses at once: staging, pet-feeding, giving professional massages, and teaching horseback riding when she isn't riding or caring for her three almost-launched children. Another is a concert pianist who can play for ages by memory in front of a packed audience with an orchestra, models on request and has done so in major cities, makes over-the-top jewelry (dodidesigns.com) and gives piano lessons while taking advanced degree classes.
This entry could be titled "start another business". The possibilities are endless, and the advantage of many is that you can choose your hours and have flexible convenient work.
For many, these started out as hobbies. Test them out to see if they make enjoyable pastimes. You can finally do what you may have always wanted to do, and keep learning something new.
Currently, anyone with American citizenship (or resident alien card) can own a business in the U.S. Different countries have different requirements.
Invest in yourself. And keep your health. Always. These jobs could help you do just that.
Bhutan, Kingdom of: A Short Summary
Differentiating Facts:
1) Population: 672,425. Called Land of the Peaceful Thunder Dragon in the Himalayas between India and China. Never colonized by other nations. Last remaining monarchy left in South Asia, the Wangchuck dynasty. New King, 28, crowned The Dragon King, November 6, 2008 at 8:31 a.m.*** (long-awaited). Bhutan had first democratic elections in March 2008.
2) Created the Gross National Happiness (GNH) Index with four components, in 1998. “A new set of guide lines by which to govern the country, is “defined by the following four objectives: to increase economic growth and development, preserve and promote the cultural heritage, encourage sustainable use of the environment, and establish good governance.”* Accordingly, in 2006 Business Week rated Bhutan the happiest country in Asia and the eighth happiest country in the world citing a global survey conducted by the University of Leicester in 2006 referenced to as the "World Map of Happiness".**
3) Has the highest unclimbed mountain in the world, the Gangkhar Puensum at 24, 835 ft (7,570 m)
Historical and Geographical Facts:
1) Capital and largest city is Thimphu. Very mountainous. Temperature ranges from subtropical in the south to polar in the north.
2) Fortresses (Dzong) were built (by a Tibetan military leader) in the 17th C to defend Bhutan against Tibetans. Bhutan also had border disputes with India (and the British East India Company) but all hostilities were ended by 1865 treaties.
3) Inheritance generally follows the female line. Love marriages in urban areas common. But polygamy is often a device used to keep property contained in a family unit. One of the safest countries in the world.
Economic Facts:
1) Few embassies in Bhutan. Informal outside contact is mostly with India. “The Indo-Bhutan Friendship Treaty of 2007 strengthens Bhutan’s status as an independent and sovereign nation.”**
2) Per capita income is US$1,321. Currency, begun in the 1960s, is the Ngultrum, pegged to the Indian rupee (also used). The military takeover of Tibet in 1959 closed all historic trade routes over Himalayas. Most trade is with India (71.3%),
3) Economy is 80% based on agriculture, rice, buckwheat, livestock farming. Hydroelectric power to India provides revenues, as do forestry, handicrafts and alcohol. Country is 64% covered in forest. Railways are nonexistent, and roads are rugged. Banned items include tobacco and plastic bags. Television was banned until 1999.
General Facts:
1) Age-old code of conduct and use of language (Dzongkha) are promoted. Law requires Bhutanese dress in public areas, and for formal wear.
2) Literacy rate is 59.5 %. Median age is 22.3 years, and life expectancy is 62.2 years. Previous King stepped down (retired) at age 52.
3) Religion is ¾ Vajirayana Buddhism, and ¼ Hinduism (roughly) and they co-exist peacefully. Nepalese immigrants to Bhutan, forced out in the 1990s, have been resettled in America. Archery, darts, shot put are national sports. Cricket, football increasing.
Source: * http://wikitravel.org/en/Bhutan
Market uncertainty abounds
Now is the time to be more careful with your money than probably ever before. What looks like a market that will go up, might not. It could have a short term rally. It could also fall a lot from here. There is plenty of precedent. The Obama lift could be factored in already.
Slope of Hope (slopeofhope.com) says the Dow could fall to 5500 (yikes!) and Nouriel Roubini (http://www.rgemonitor.com/blog/roubini/) is saying that these are extraordinarily dangerous times. The market could fall further. Just saying. I would prefer to see it go up.
Those who are buying in now should have at least a five to ten year time horizon, because by then share prices will likely be up. But which stocks will be the winners? Substantial, easily understandable, brand name stocks. My last post has some ideas.
While stock buyers can move around more nimbly in the stock market than big funds, most individuals haven't got a hope of the preferential treatment that Warren Buffett is getting.
Here is an article with more on that:
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB122548632193589047.html
Slope of Hope (slopeofhope.com) says the Dow could fall to 5500 (yikes!) and Nouriel Roubini (http://www.rgemonitor.com/blog/roubini/) is saying that these are extraordinarily dangerous times. The market could fall further. Just saying. I would prefer to see it go up.
Those who are buying in now should have at least a five to ten year time horizon, because by then share prices will likely be up. But which stocks will be the winners? Substantial, easily understandable, brand name stocks. My last post has some ideas.
While stock buyers can move around more nimbly in the stock market than big funds, most individuals haven't got a hope of the preferential treatment that Warren Buffett is getting.
Here is an article with more on that:
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB122548632193589047.html
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