Thursday, July 31, 2008

XLF

Today's market action was up nicely, amidst rumors on CNBC that the financial sector is moving up from mid-July lows. Here's a graph of XLF, the financial ETF that is at least treading water, and might be turning around. (Then again, it might just be regrouping and forming an intermediate base and then dropping some more.) Maybe the Bear Stearns fall-off in July really did form the low, as evidenced by the volume spike, and the recent Merrill Lynch news of the write-down will open the floodgates for more buying again. That is what I prefer to think. There was an interesting segment on Larry Kudlow analysing the news from Merrill both ways, as a good deal, or as an embarrassment. The financial sector is an amazing bargain at these prices. Doesn't it look like it will double before long?





On the other hand, the following chart of all historical information on XLF back to 1999 shows a more bearish graph, with lows reached at 20 in early 2000, about 19 at the end of 2002 and now about 17.5 mid-2008. It could go either way, from the look of the chart, in my view. Let the Buyer beware! It could make a long slow, up move from here, at least for awhile. Or does this look like the chart of a bubble? Maybe not that large a bubble! Let's think financials, along with everything else, turn around from here. Surely, by now, software has replaced much of the human element of the market. For the most part, that is for the better, I would say. Pity the ETF chart doesn't go back further.


Wednesday, July 30, 2008

Wonderful Up Market!

DJIA* 11397.56 266.48 2.39%
Nasdaq*
2319.62 55.40 2.45%
S&P 500*
1263.20 28.83 2.34%
Russell*
714.55 18.44 2.65%
10-YR Note*
4 .046% -10/32 -0.30%
* at closeSource: Dow Jones, Reuters



The markets improved somewhat today, quite a bit actually. Perhaps they were just making up for weakness in the past session. Oil headed down, and that can only be a good thing for us bulls, because lower oil means that stocks generally head higher. Amidst all the mixed economic news, while technology stocks get pummeled, are healthcare, the drugmakers and biotechs emerging as leadership sectors, or is this possible trend going to fizzle?

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Lahiere's Restaurant, Princeton, New Jersey Review

Today, I wrote a review of Lahiere's Restaurant, another of my favorite restaurants in Princeton, New Jersey.

This is one of Princeton’s finest restaurants well-located in the middle of town across from the main gate of Princeton University at 5-11 Nassau St. (at Witherspoon St.) (609) 921-2798. With it's prime real estate and nearby parking ramps, this is the restaurant where you are most likely to find V.I.Ps in Princeton. Of course, it will cost you plenty for a nice dinner. But lunch is also a nice time to visit, for a business or somewhat lengthy meal, when the sun filters beautifully through the windows creating a cozy, soothing, restful location and offering a slower pace within a bustling town center.
Along with this convenient, prime location and its’ celebrity-spotting possibilities, you will find a surprisingly comfortable place to relax (if you are not worrying about the bill), with European style ambience, multiple white tablecloths, candles, flowers and fine food. Lahiere’s offers fine wines in very generous glasses (or by the bottle) and has extra rooms upstairs for large, private dinners or tables joined for groups in the various rooms downstairs. Many smaller dining rooms on the main floor add to the charm and intimacy of Lahiere’s. The mirrors and wallpaper, art and nice lighting add a certain relaxed atmosphere that is rare to find in Princeton restaurants.
I have been here often enough over the last twenty-five years to appreciate the reliable continuity of Lahiere’s and hope for more of the same. Menus vary with the seasons, with carefully prepared soups, salads and entrees, side dishes, cheeses and desserts made from the freshest ingredients.
In my view, along with the relaxed ambience and fine food, it is the discreet and attentive service that differentiates Lahiere’s from most of the other, newer restaurants. The staff does not draw attention to themselves but I have not ever found their attention lacking. It tends to happen unobtrusively before it is needed.
Whether you are with one other or with a large group,"rich and famous" or not, Lahiere’s will find a place for you (especially if you reserve ahead weekend nights) and make your dining experience memorable and pleasant. I only hope at some point that the chairs become slightly softer to sit on (maybe it's just me), and that entrees are very, very hot when delivered to table. Being an affectionate, loyal client, one tends to just forgive and enjoy everything, because of the exciting, prime location, management's constant attention to detail, good old-fashioned service, and relaxing ambience. It is probably the restaurant most relied upon by Princeton's elite.
This fairly dress-up dining location, where jackets and ties are not “required” any more, is what most Princetonians consider the finest restaurant in town. Just be sure to be ready for that check.
More information on this fine dining establishment is available on their website, along with some history. http://www.lahieres.com/
SADLY, THIS RESTAURANT IS NOW CLOSED.

Sunday, July 27, 2008

Tibet


TIBET

Here are three differentiating characteristics:

1) Tibet has an average elevation of 16,000 ft, the highest region on Earth, a plateau region in Central Asia, and is often referred to as the “Roof of the World”

2) Several rivers have their source in the Tibetan Plateau, the Yangtze, Yellow, Indus, Mekong, Brahmaputra, Ganges, Salween and Yarlung Tsangpo. Their glaciers provide Asia with much of its water.*

3) The Tibet Autonomous Region’s population of 5,400,000 is 0.5 percent of China’s population.*

Here are three historical and geographical facts:

1) Tibet’s general history begins (604-50 CE) with the rule of Songtsan Gampo who
ruled Tibet as a kingdom and united parts of the Yarlung River Valley. If we jump to 1751, Chinese Emperor Qianlong installed Dalai Lama as the spiritual and political leader of Tibet.
Since 1951, Tibet has been under China’s control, considered the Tibetan Autonomous Region (TAR), although India and Republic of China (formerly Taiwan) also claim part.
On March 10, 1959, the Dalai Lama fled to Dharamsala, India where there are now with him thousands of Tibetan monks and supporters in favor of Tibetan cultural autonomy.
Repeatedly, the Dalai Lama has exhorted for Tibetan autonomy from the Chinese “to protect their culture”.

2) “The issue of the proportion of the Han Chinese population in Tibet is a politically sensitive one” (from Wikipedia). While the population of Tibet is primarily Tibetans, other groups include Menba (monpa), Lhoba, Mongols and Hui Chinese. There are also many Tibetan dialects, such as Kham, Amdo, Sherpa. China will not allow independent human rights organizations into Tibet or to meet with Tibetans. (Many Tibetans cannot understand each other’s dialects). According to USA Today (Aug 5, 2008), thousands of Tibetans are now "undergoing "patriotic education" campaigns to denounce the Dalai Lama".

3) The Tibetan Plateau includes the world’s highest mountain, Mount Everest on Nepal’s border. Lhasa is the capital city and contains Potala Palace, most important example of Tibetan architecture. Lhasa has this 1,000 room former palace of the Dalai Lama (though smaller than the over 8, 700 room Palace of the Forbidden City in Beijing*) and his summer residence, Norbulingka. Lhasa also contains significant temples and monasteries, Jokhand and Ramoche. Shigatse, Gyantse and Chamdo are among the next largest cities.


Here are three economic facts:

1)
The Tibetan economy is dominated by subsistence farming, of livestock raising and crops of barley and wheat. Tourism brings in the most income from the sale of handicrafts and is actively promoted by authorities. The Qinghai-Tibet Railway, the first to link the region (to China) was opened in 2006. There are thought to be many undeveloped minerals in the mountains.

2) Unemployment is high and an unequal taxation system worsens poverty in rural areas.

3) By the 1850s Tibet had banned all foreigners and has denied Tibetans most rights, such as self-determination, freedom of speech, assembly, movement, expression, travel. Access to housing, education and health remain unfulfilled. It ranks lowest of China’s 31 provinces , and ranked 153 of 160 countries on the Human Development Index.

Here are three general facts about Tibet:

1) Bon, the ancient religion of Tibet is extremely important to their daily lives. Tantric Buddhism is also practiced.

2) Tibetan music is religious and involves chanting in Tibetan or Sanskrit.

3) “Tibet” is derived possibly from the Arabic Tubbat ( derived via Persian from the Turkic Toban for “the heights”) , or from the people of northeast Tibet, the Tubut, or the Muslim writers from the 9thC Tubbett, Tibbat, or the People’s Republic of China, tubo. Many Tibetans go by one name only.

Sources:

Wikipedia http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tibet

*www.nytimes.com/edlife

Saturday, July 26, 2008

AFGHANISTAN

Today I studied Afghanistan and found these three differentiating characteristics:

1) Afghanistan is a landlocked and mountainous country in South-Central Asia. Large parts of the country are dry, subject to minor earthquakes and fresh water supplies are limited.

2) Revenue in Afghanistan is mostly taken from customs, as income and corporate tax is negligible.

3) Some private investment projects are starting to pick up steam, such as the "City of Light Development" in Kabul following a century or more of unstable transfers of power.

Here are three historical and geographical facts:

1) Afghanistan's Total Population is 32,738,376. Kabul is the capital city with over one million residents. Other cities in order of size are Kandahar, Herat, Mazar-e Sharif, Jalalabad, Ghazni and Kunduz. The country is divided into 34 provinces.

2) Afghanistan dates from 50,000 years ago, though the modern state was created in 1747.
In the last century, it has been a monarchy, republic, theocracy and communist state. It is currently a Republic led by President Hamid Karzai who was elected in October, 2004.

3) The tribal system orders life outside metropolitan areas. Under Islamic law, every believer should bear arms for the local clan leader (Khans) and tribal chiefs, if called upon. Afghanistan is about 40% Pashtun, 30% Tajik, 8.5% Hazara, and 8.5% Uzbek.

Here are three further economic facts:

1) This mountainous country, generally traveled by bus, continues to recover and rebuild, but has excessive illegal poppy and opium trading and is subject to attack from al Qaeda. There is a great deal of poverty, poor infrastructure, and large concentrations of unexploded land mines. Afghanistan, land of the Afghans, is also subject to violent political jockeying. On the positive side: it harbors great quantities of natural metals and minerals and could export energy, oil and natural gas.

2) As of 2005, the official unemployment rate was set at 40%. There are over 70,000 police officers.

3) Literacy in 1999 was 36%. Male literacy: 51%, Female literacy: 21%. Some parents will not allow their daughters to be taught by men, and we hope this will change and improve literacy.
Poetry events are popular.

Source, and for further information: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Afghanistan

Friday, July 25, 2008

Upbeat health care story

Another ho-hum day on the market. Of course, it is a Friday at the end of a prime vacation week in July, but at least the market is up:

From the Wall Street Journal: Better-than-expected readings of new-home sales, consumer sentiment and durable-goods orders weren't enough to push stocks out of the ditch they rolled into Thursday.

DJIA*11370.69 21.4 10.19%
Nasdaq*
2310.53 30.42 1.33%
S&P 500*
1257.76 5.22 0.42%
Russell*710.34 7.95 1.13%
10-YR Note
4.103% -26/32 -0.82% * at close
Source: Dow Jones, Reuters



On more upbeat news: There was an interesting upbeat story at CNN.com today about Lincoln Industries, a 565-person metal part manufacturing plant in Lincoln, Nebraska, that successfully brought down health care costs in an extraordinarily successful and bravely innovative way. The cost-savings achieved were noteworthy and the methods used were praiseworthy. It is a wonderful story that inspires hope where we wish there could be some.

It is also both a business and health breakthrough. Both for-profit and non-profit companies, like schools and hospitals, would do this, I bet, if they thought it could work. Who knew? Employees had annual health tests paid for and could win vacation trips. Just by taking the trouble to monitor their employees health, the company achieved significant savings from insurance companies. This company also rates high in caring, from the sound of it, too. The program has been in place for 16 years and it sounds like it is working.

The company requires all employees to undergo quarterly checkups measuring weight, body fat and flexibility. It also conducts annual blood, vision and hearing tests.....

The company ranks workers on their
fitness, from platinum, gold and silver down to "non-medal." To achieve platinum, they must reach fitness goals and be nonsmokers -- and the company offers smoking cessation classes.

For employees, reaching platinum means a three-day, company-paid trip each summer to climb a 14,000-foot peak in Colorado. This year, 103 qualified, the most ever. And 70 made the climb.

For the company, the payoff is significantly lower health-care costs. The company pays less than $4,000 per employee, about half the regional average and a savings of more than $2 million. That makes the $400,000 Lincoln Industries spends each year on wellness a bargain.

"The return on investment is extraordinary," Orme says.

http://www.cnn.com/2008/HEALTH/diet.fitness/07/25/fn.healthy.company/index.html

Here is this evening's Wall Street Journal's summary of today's market action:

Dow Skids Amid Grim Housing Data
[Go to article]
The Dow industrials dropped 283.10 points, or 2.4%, to end at 11349.28 after grim data on housing and employment. Financial stocks dropped dramatically; builders also took steep losses. The Nasdaq and S&P 500 tumbled. 10:24 p.m.





Yesterday I was stung by five wasps at once, I am not kidding. Today, I said "Big Ouch" again for a very
different reason. This was not a good day for bulls on Wall Street, to say the least.

But "when the going gets tough, the tough go shopping" and that is exactly what I did today. If "it is always
a good time to buy stocks", as Warren Buffett has said on television, the same is true of jewelry. I went to
the incredible Short Hills Mall and looked for necklaces. You will recall from a recent post
(Precious Metals,
Friday July 18) that I love the gemstones and necklaces at Dodi's Designs.

http://www.dodidesigns.com/

I have to say that they compared favorably to gem necklaces at Tiffany, Neiman-Marcus and Saks Fifth Avenue.
They are all so unique and creative, and great value. They are too good to be travel jewelry and are suitable for
all kinds of occasions as they come in a great variety of unique designs. Dodi is sure to please and I just cannot
say enough praise for her unusual, courageous jewelry.

The Short Hills Mall is a fabulous Mall that has been my personal favorite since first visiting New Jersey.
Try Legal Seafoods when you get hungry as their soups and fish are delicious. This Mall has historically had
very strict leasing restrictions. Stores have to completely renovate every three years or else they must leave, with few
exceptions, or they used to have to. There are lots of elite international businesses here with extravagant
beautiful displays. It is definitely one of the most upscale, exciting, well-kept Malls in America only fifteen
minutes or so from Newark International Airport, with convenient optional valet parking. Also, the music
is really nice and soothing. Not much is here to invite children, just a gentle warning, as it is all designed
to stimulate shopping whims and impulses, and the more money and time you can spend, the more fun it will be!
At their website, you can see if your favorite designers and stores are in the Short Hills Mall's store directory,
and find hours and directions. Welcome to The Mall at Short Hills!

http://www.shopshorthills.com/





Big Change in Prescription Drug Advertising

A CNBC "guest expert" Wednesday, July 23, 2008 said something that has stuck in my mind that I need to sort out. He said that the entire pharmaceutical industry of the U.S. is now changing its marketing practices by encouraging American patients to request specific medicines. This CNBC guest went on to say that this marks a "sea change" by drug makers trying a new marketing strategy that makes patients aware of certain prescription drugs with relentless advertising.

As well as targeting the doctors as they have always done, now pharmaceutical companies are also aggressively targeting the end consumer, the patient, with prescription drugs and asking them in the ads to take the drug name to the doctor. I didn't think too much about it during my busy day, but it kept coming back to haunt me involuntarily because it explains what I have been suspecting for some time.

I think this new "sea change" started with new "enhancement" drug advertisements that are certainly graphic and not suitable for family television. It looks like the revenues of pharmaceutical companies are being increased with this new, off-color advertising of prescription drugs with kissing, scantily clad actors making naughty look respectable. But now the prescription drug ads have moved on to other medical problems. These ads discourage keeping secrets of your medical issues and encourage you to learn about rather alarming issues that they focus on and describe and amplify, from restless legs to (big secret of millions!) constantly leaky bowels, to discuss them with your doctor and request their pill remedy by name.

Drug companies have long widely advertised over-the-counter drugs, (Aspirin, Pepto-Bismol) but the difference now is that companies want patients to request certain prescription drugs from their doctors according to drug makers. Indeed, there is a new commercial that urges patients to say to their doctors, "Let's Have the ......(drug) Conversation".

Scoldings have so far been my reward for mentioning a possible prescription drug to a doctor. I suppose this "sea change" in advertising to the patient is a capitulation, or at least acknowledgment by pharmaceutical companies, that consumers are informed enough (presumably it is the internet that has changed patient awareness) to be able to ask their doctors for specific drugs.

Odd how the internet is blamed for changing the good and bad that has already long existed in society when it has only increased awareness and sometimes creates a sense of urgency or immediacy. I know that in my case, with most doctors I have seen, I tend to keep it fairly formal and avoid asking potentially embarrassing questions unless completely unavoidable, even childbirth specifics (for which there are classes). Doctors generally won't take the initiative to ask potentially embarrassing questions either, at least in America.

I think doctors should take the lead and not be shy. Maybe they could try harder to create environments conducive to answering intimate questions. Sometimes having a caring, detailed questionnaire filled out before an appointment helps to remind a patient of issues to discuss and encourages openness. Sympathetic, non-judgmental conversations would be more caring to most patients and provide better care. Being judged harshly (or scolded) for making personal behavior choices inevitably produces hostility. Probably this is why doctors shy away from the intimate, embarrassing questions they should ask. They wait instead for confessions of weakness that might not come.

I haven't requested any drug lately, as I generally avoid drugs, but that could change if everyone else is doing it, and if doctors know that the pharmaceutical companies are encouraging informed patients to request drugs. I thought we are all supposed to take our symptoms to the doctor and that the doctor is supposed to decide what the symptoms mean. Maybe lots of patients are suddenly showing up in doctors offices with the same (heavily advertised) unusual health problems, with drug suggestions.

Here are my random questions:
- Will unexpected knowledge of drugs on the part of a patient make a doctor impatient, or worse, ignore symptoms, if a patient self-diagnoses?
- Will it create a sometimes sinister atmosphere of threat of possible litigation if the patient, a possible drug buyer (like a store customer) is usually correct and wants the medicine now "or else"? I have already felt this by doctors whose first priority, it would appear, is to cover themselves from that threat of legal consequences.
- Will drug requests poison and erode a fragile doctor-patient relationship or will it not matter in the long run?
- As patients, will we soon seem lazy or ignorant if we don't offer drug suggestions for our own health issues that we are consulting and questioning the doctor about? How crazy that would be.

Maybe next, a way will be found (and probably already has been found) to profit from the internet by bypassing doctors completely. These profitable websites (definitely in business with drug makers) might encourage unsupervised self-diagnoses and self-medication with prescription drugs as we all do from time to time already with over-the-counter drugs. (I am sure the internet will again be heavily blamed as the enemy when things go wrong, as they inevitably will). Of course, this all sounds highly dangerous and undesirable. And I don't think doctors will ever be out of their jobs, as long as they keep considering caring for their patients their number one priority.

Mpower: Gates and Bloomberg announce anti-smoking initiative

There was an historic meeting in New York today of Bill Gates and Mayor Bloomberg to announce a major anti-smoking campaign to further the work that Mayor Bloomberg has already initiated in New York City banning public smoking in bars and restaurants.

Further anecdotal evidence of smoking around the world in the article was provided by Dr. Richard Peto, who worked for many years in the 1980s and 1990s with Sir Richard Doll. William Richard Shaboe Doll was the late founder of the modern anti-smoking movement who provided medical evidence linking smoking with lung cancer and won many distinguished awards. They also backed studies that found that even second-hand smoke can be almost as dangerous and cancer-causing.

I know this well as I had a job in their office in England in 1980, knew them both and became very familiar with their work. Dr. Peto brings his mathematical knowledge to epidemiology. Though not a ground-breaking high-flying mathematician (Peto, now Sir Richard, was not the only mathematician originally invited to apply for a position helping Sir Richard Doll who at one time was an aspiring mathematician), Peto leveraged his knowledge of mathematics into a high-profile partnership (and warm, private friendship) with the former Regius Professor of Medicine, a consultant to the Queen of England and a knighthood.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Richard_Doll

Anyway, according to this article, these two titans of American industry, Bill Gates and Mayor Bloomberg, have their work cut out for them, with so many foreign countries sponsoring agricultural practices encouraging the farming of tobacco. Seems to me their energy and money should be spent persuading these governments to change their ways. Company advertising can certainly shift and encourage consumer demand. Governments financially either encourage or discourage agricultural practices relating to consumer supply and demand. Business can assist with sophisticated alternative advertising techniques so that demand is not created where it does not already exist.

From the New York Times article:

The newly created Mpower campaign -
will urge governments to sharply raise tobacco taxes, prohibit smoking in public places, outlaw advertising to children and cigarette giveaways, start antismoking advertising campaigns and offer people
nicotine patches or other help quitting. Health officials, consumer advocates, journalists, tax officers and others from third world countries will be brought to the United States for workshops on topics like lobbying, public service advertising, catching cigarette smugglers and running telephone help lines for smokers wanting to quit. A list of grants is at tobaccocontrolgrants.org.
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/07/24/health/24tobacco.html?hp

Perhaps farmers in foreign countries where tobacco is widely grown could have "tobacco conversations" with their politicians. All should learn that tobacco will ruin their health if they don't already know it. Then farmers should tell their politicians that they will not grow tobacco. Healthy alternative crops can be found as we have done here in America. These foreign farmers need to assert themselves and offer viable alternatives to their governments.

Tuesday, July 22, 2008

Uzbekistan

It's a good idea to take a few minutes preferably every day to read and learn about a different country in Wikipedia, a very reliable website and one of my favorite online references.

It's a fun, sometimes time-consuming project because country entries are lengthy and it's easy to get diverted from them to other wiki sites.

For example, today I looked at Uzbekistan in Central Asia. There is a new freshman rumored to be from that country boarding at my daughter's high school in New Jersey this fall. I decided to include my favorite facts about Uzbekistan in a nutshell....


These are three unrelated facts that differentiate Uzbekistan:

1) Uzbekistan is distinguished, along with Liechtenstein, as being one of only two "double-landlocked countries" in the world. It's completely landlocked on four sides.

2) It is attractively sunny, having less than eight inches of precipitation per year!

3) It ranks as fifth most corrupt country in the world in the Corruption Index, worse than Afghanistan this year. (This is surely not socially acceptable for conversation in that country, even if true).

By the way, this is a very interesting, if controversial, annual international index:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Corruption_Perceptions_Index


Here are three historical and geographical facts:

1) Uzbekistan was formerly part of the Soviet Union until 1991 and is now part of the Commonwealth of Independent States led by President Islom Karimov.

2) Tamerlane was a military leader in the 14thC and the country dates back to the 2nd millenium B.C. Notable cities are Bukhara, Namangan and Samarkand. Today Uzbekistan has the biggest military force in Central Asia.

3) The capital is Tashkent, and it has the only subway system (with ornate, decorative clean stations) in Central Asia. Uzbekistan, the most populous country in the region, is divided into provinces.


Here are a few general economic facts about Uzbekistan:

Economic production is concentrated in commodities: Uzbekistan is now the world's sixth-largest producer and second-largest exporter of cotton,[17] as well as the seventh largest world producer of gold. It is also a regionally significant producer of natural gas, coal, copper, oil, silver, and uranium. [boldface mine]

A February 2006 report on the country by the International Crisis Group suggests that revenues earned from key exports, especially cotton, gold, corn, and increasingly gas, are distributed among a very small circle of the ruling elite, with little or no benefit for the populace at large.[25][26]

Uzbekistan is thought to offer "limited civil rights" and the government is hostile about developing a private sector it cannot control. Import substitution is a policy, and decreasing consumption is the general tendency caused by high taxes. The stock exchange in this emerging market is only fourteen years old and their currency is the som.

During cotton-picking season students and teachers of this country roughly the size of Morocco pick cotton for free. Their universities graduate 600,000 per year (according to Wikipedia) but the average salary is still less than $3,000/year. Cellphone use has doubled to seven million (out of a total population of 27 million) in the last six months and internet use is up. Also, a third of the country's population is younger than fourteen and the national holiday is September 1.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Uzbekistan

Thanks, Wikipedia and thank you, dear reader, for reading this! Now you will be more prepared if you, too, should be fortunate enough to meet an Uzbek and visit Uzbekistan.

ETFs today

There is a new section in the Smart Money website I have been enjoying having a look at.
There is now an ETF map of the market, tucked inside their website, that supplements their stock and mutual fund maps of the market:

http://www.smartmoney.com/etf/maps/

and a monthly performance .pdf file here:http://www.etftrends.com/files/06-30-08ETFReport.pdf

Since I am a perennial bull, let's see the numbers year-to-date improve. At least today's numbers are up:

DJIA*11602.50 135.16 1.18%
Nasdaq*
2303.96 24.43 1.07%
S&P 500*
1277.00 17.00 1.35%
Russell*716.82 19.19 2.75%
10-YR Note*
4.105% -17/32 -0.52%
* at closeSource: Dow Jones, Reuters


Financials led a buying rally near the close, just while I took a swim on this hot summer day!
Stocks were trading rather like a typical mid-summer day until three o'clock Eastern time, that is, not much. I suppose it was like a coiled spring that built on its own speed. I don't usually swim mid-day, but I will happily do so again before markets close if this is how the market is going to behave.

Monday, July 21, 2008

Oxymoron: "Free markets"


DJIA*
11467.34 -29.23 -0.25%
Nasdaq*2279.53 -3.25 -0.14%
S&P 500*1260.00 -0.68 -0.05%
Russell*697.63 4.550.66%
10-YR Note*4.040% 13/3 20.40% * at close
Source: Dow Jones, Reuters



Source: Dow Jones, Reuters

The Dow was down, oil and gold and commodities up for the day.
Jim Cramer on CNBC's Mad Money show said that biotechs will go up as financial stocks do "in lockstep" as they did in the early 1990s. We'll see.

My questions: Should Fannie and Freddie be bailed out? Should financial stocks not be shorted? Just how free are these markets?







Friday, July 18, 2008

Mamma Mia

I loved Mamma Mia! as I love Abba songs. It is true that there is a new Abba song played every five minutes or so. I certainly enjoyed it as a musical retrospective of the group's entire musical repertoire. But to sit and listen to their entire works all at the same time is almost too much of a good thing, even for a fan like me. Nevertheless, this is a fun movie to see.

I hope you like Abba's music and then you will find it worthwhile. I did not see the Broadway play, so I cannot compare, but it is a very entertaining movie as a musical comedy, rather than being politically important or educational or even very useful. I can see how the plot line, as limited as it is, might perhaps be most interesting or useful to anyone with similar issues involving suspect parentage. It's all sort of semi-timeless, the relevant events being the heroine's birth and now her wedding. This movie runs to a very unexpected romantic conclusion, without any assistance from DNA testing.

Mamma Mia! is not a great romance, but emotions play a major role most of the time. The dancing is rather surprising and unexpectedly relentless, organized and rehearsed, to say the least and the singing is sort of borderline in tune much of the time. It could definitely be more tightly edited and shortened without losing the sense and impact of the story. The costuming of the singers is hilarious!

The boyfriend and the male actors, in general, are two-dimensional. What you see it what you get. The boyfriend is mostly an accessory to the heroine. The possible father figures, major actors all, Pierce Brosnan, Stellan Skarsgard and Colin Firth, are almost cartoonishly filled out, although their yacht scene with the heroine appears really idyllic and fun.

I have to say that the way scenery is used is a very important part of the movie. The fantastic photography of the improbably calm Mediterranean Sea (at least at times) and the moonlit evenings, the white buildings of the island, the pine trees and rocky shorelines, the docks and boats, contribute to stunning, but realistic classic photography. It is inadvertently a tourism advertisement for Greece and the Greek Islands all the way through.

This movie is clearly Meryl Streep's as the dominating character. Her finest acting moments could be her singing and climbing the steep path up to the church. The remainder of the movie offers some of her most surprising movie moments, climbing, dancing, even bed-jumping and bannister-flying! Busy, emotional Streep has to be one of the most gifted and malleable actresses of all time. She dances, sings, changes her accents and appearance. She is so amazing! Of course, she has won so many awards, perhaps she did want something to make her feel more alive!

The film gives the impression of having been overwhelmingly fun to make for her, especially, and for the other actors and actresses. I wish I could hear if it was all as much fun as it looked. There are lots of extras in the movies dancing on the docks and all over the island, and genuine-looking islanders.

For the music and scenery, it is definitely worth seeing. And it is very, very funny.

Precious metals


DJIA*11496.57 49.9 10.44%
Nasdaq*
2282.78 -29.52 -1.28%
S&P 500*1260.68 0.36 0.03%
Russell*693.08 -3.55 -0.51%
10-YR Note*4.089% -25/32 -0.77% * at close


Source: Dow Jones, Reuters


Mixed news ends the week, with the market up for the week,
but the Dow remains below 11,000 and oil is down as well.
Is this good news or just sort of middling? We need
housing prices to start going up.

Speaking of precious metals, I wanted to say a good word
about Dodi Designs. Dodi's rocks are the best. She gets precious
and semi-precious stones from all over, including Manhattan
and the gem shows. She uses only the best gold and sterling silver
clasps and designs. Two of her newest necklaces are of blue topaz,
acquamarine and rutilated quartz. Others are of pink quartz,
blue, green and white turquoise, smoky quartz, lapis lazuli, citrine,
amethyst, Labradorite. They all are treasures, stunningly beautiful and
ultra creative. All her rocks have wonderful significance and
meaning, of prosperity, power, happiness, and so on. I love her
taste, and I would just love to have more of her rocks, too. She
models her designs on her website and has earlier experience as a
Manhattan model. She is Canadian-born and also a concert pianist,
very multi-talented, wouldn't you say? She sells her jewelry
by appointment in Hopewell, New Jersey. Well worth a visit.

Her website is dodidesigns.com

If you would like to know how to contact her, you may do so by
emailing me as well. Her phone number is (917)797-4121. She
would love to design for the big fashion houses and department
stores. I'd say she could do it. Her designs are rapidly spreading
out from the Princeton, New Jersey area.



Thursday, July 17, 2008

Another great day!

Okay, with the Google numbers out everything has changed and tomorrow could likely be different, but for today, the numbers were great:

DJIA*11446.66207.381.85%
Nasdaq*2312.3027.451.20%
S&P 500*1260.3214.961.20%
Russell*696.639.881.44%
10-YR Note4.001%-16/32-0.50%
* at closeSource: Dow Jones, Reuters



Michael Steinhardt, Wisdom Tree Investments, said today on CNBC that "the bears are right, but the bulls are lucky." I know this is out of context, but I do so want to be lucky.

An English garden and poison ivy

If you want to learn how to get public and private money for a private park, this article about a semi-private garden in England could point the way.
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/07/17/garden/17northumberland.html?ref=garden
Of course, it is only open to the general public at times, no doubt a little nuisance to the owners. They raised the money for it, didn't they? The Duchess's justification that it is not an elite garden for elite gardeners is a bit disingenuous. Is it a free garden, open all daylight hours for all, staffed by government employees? I don't think so. The slideshow does make it look nice, but it is only just over half finished. Harry Potter would be very impressed, as this was where some of the early movies were filmed!

Meanwhile, back on the farm (our private park definitely financed privately (!) on similar acreage as the story above) in central New Jersey, poison ivy and English ivy removal has been our focus this week now that the spring grass growth is slowing. We have had only sunny, hot weather lately. It's beautiful. This article highlights this scourge of summer and what you can do about it, if you have to do something about it, as we do.
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/07/17/garden/17garden.html?scp=1&sq=poison%20ivy&st=cse
I am not familiar with jewelweed and have had to rely on commercial cleansers and lotions. But my tree professional says to use bleach directly on the skin! Poison ivy even gets into your gloves which is why some professional gardeners won't wear gloves, amazing as that may sound. It even gets into the swimming pool water to reinfect you if it happens to be on your skin! I guess a Mommy has to do what a Mommy has to do, but it is a lot easier if someone else does it for you. I have to thank Scannella Landscaping LLC, phone: (609) 924-2668, for their perenially perfect work done on our grounds. Now if only I could bring myself to spend as much money (over $80 million) on my garden as the Duchess already has, but at least mine is finished!

Wednesday, July 16, 2008

A golden day!

My, what a wonderful day! We had a perfectly beautiful summer day here in the New York area and the Dow and S & P 500 were up a lot, over 2% and the Nasdaq over 3%:

DJIA*11239.28276.742.52%
Nasdaq*2284.8569.143.12%
S&P 500*1245.3630.452.51%
Russell*686.7524.403.68%
10-YR Note*3.940%-29/32-0.89%
* at closeSource: Dow Jones, Reuters



My last post mentioned gold as a possible safe haven that might, just might, hold its value up until the election. Then this afternoon, I read the Forbes article below. I like the gold sector, but it is very volatile and unexpected and has massive downward spikes. These downward spirals are very startling when they happen but a rout tends to be followed by a gentle ride up.

From today's Forbes website, a new article by John Tamny, "Inflation is worse than we think":

...So while inflation problems around the world confirm that our government measures of inflation are faulty, the bigger story is what a rising dollar price of gold means for the average American. In short, when gold rises, paychecks are emasculated, investment in innovative, job-creating enterprises subsides and money flows to the relative safety of the "real."

Rather than clinging to the CPI as false evidence of light inflation, and worse, targeting consumer prices, monetary authorities should instead target a stable gold price with an eye on bringing it down substantially. If history is any kind of indicator, an upward correction of the dollar would quickly cheer an electorate that presently has much to complain about.

http://www.forbes.com/2008/07/16/inflation-prices-gold-oped-cx_jt_0716tamny.html?feed=rss_news

On the latest July 2008 economic figures

Consumer price index number up for the month of June 1.1% alone! -- No wonder that is a headline number! Glad the U.S. market is up over one percent today anyway. I am normally bullish and optimistic, but these are trying times.

In the last 12 months, the price index has risen 5 percent, the biggest annual jump since May 1991...In June, inflation accelerated at nearly twice the rate in May...

The increase in the index largely stemmed from the record high price of crude oil, which has pushed up the price of gasoline by more than 10 percent last month alone. Energy prices rose by 6.6 percent and transportation costs accelerated by 3.8 percent.

Housing fuels and utilities cost 1.8 percent more in June than in May, and the cost of shelter also increased, by 0.5 percent.

Prices also rose for the cost of food (0.8 percent), tobacco (1.5 percent), and owners equivalent rent (0.3 percent).

But: “Manufacturing continues to underperform the general economy,”

and: “the bottom line is that U.S. workers are falling farther and farther behind.”

There was at least some good news:

...the Fed chairman [Bernanke], has repeatedly said the nation does not face the runaway price gains of the 1970s.
In a separate report on Wednesday, the Fed said that industrial production rose 0.5 percent in June after slipping 0.2 percent in May, beating economists’ expectations.

Production increased among automobile and electronics manufacturers. Utilities, particularly those that provide electric power, also saw a rise in production. Capacity utilization ticked up slightly, to 79.9 percent from 79.6 percent in May.

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/07/17/business/17econ.html

Commercial lending distress has arrived, as we read all about the (probably suicidal) death of a commerical lender in an article in the Wall Street Journal:

Investors "entrusted Mr. Coles with some $727 million of their money because of his track record of high returns and oft-repeated mantra that the company had "never lost a dime of principal for investors."

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB121617220846656637.html?mod=hps_us_pageone

A few weeks ago, I happened to have the good luck to speak to Brian Sullivan, the business news anchor formerly of Bloomberg, lately of Fox Business, in a restaurant. He advised me in person to buy those REIT stocks and do nothing with them for five years. This is not any secret, as he has said the same on television. It also makes a lot of long term sense.

Where's an investor to turn in the short term? These are very tough economic times, and being invested is key. "Nothing proferred, nothing gained", or lost, sometimes. It is difficult to know where to safely invest. I always want a good return, 10% at least, 25% is better, but doubling the money or more is my goal. As Erin Burnett on CNBC has often said, "there is an awful lot of money out there trying to find a good home". Let's be optimistic.

For more daily chart education, I often check out bearish Tim Knight's Slope of Hope blog http://www.slopeofhope.com/.
Being a bull, I usually just read, and want the chart to go the opposite way. I learn a lot there.

This article in the Wall Street Journal a few days ago ended with some wise advice:

Yes, index funds outperform in bull markets. They may even outperform in other markets over the very long term. But it's at times like this that the phrase "risk-adjusted returns" starts to sound appealing. If markets this volatile do not throw out some great opportunities, it would be a first.
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB121579241132546193.html?mod=wsjcrmain

It's always a good time to invest, and the precious metals look mighty shiny now! I recommend the Vanguard Precious Metals Fund VGPMX (unfortunately, now closed) and Fidelity Investments Select Gold Fund FSAGX until after the presidential election in November in these uncertain economic times, but in long-term tax-deferred retirement accounts. I have been investing in IRAs and 401Ks since 401Ks were invented in tax-deferred mutual funds with low expense ratios. I hope to provide further information on fund families and express my favorite web research addresses later.

There are some great fund families with new funds for shorting, from ProShares, Rydex and Direxion Funds, but "buyer beware" as they need constant vigilance and might be only for those constantly monitoring their funds and able to buy and sell. These last fund families are recommended for professionals. I will recommend some of these on another post.

From the New York Times - real estate articles

Here are some interesting articles I liked from this evening's New York Times website, all about real estate:

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/07/16/us/16share.html?hp

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/07/16/greathomesanddestinations/16gh-salebc.html

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/07/16/greathomesanddestinations/16gh-what.html

I really enjoy looking at other people's houses in the slide shows. It is amazing that they are so generous with their personal space interiors.